When's the next British election?

[tuvor]

Just occurred to me that it should be fairly soon...?

ON EDIT: "must occur before mid-2006" according to some site I googled.

Some interesting international dynamics will soon be taking shape, I hope.

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Blair decides the date

most bets are on spring this year. We have county council elections on 5th May, and often the Prime Minister chooses the same day for the general election, so that people only have to go to vote once.

Unfortunately the polls still predict he will get back in with an absolute majority in Parliament.

[Brian_Expat]

2. Much as I don't like Blair. . .

. . . I'd prefer a Labour majority to a Tory one.

I am hoping the Liberal Democrats do well in this next election, it would be nice for them to become the opposition and have a shot at government sometime within the next decade!

[tuvor]

3. Why would the polls show bliar getting another majority?

Weren't the British papers having a field day mocking American voters for being "stupid" for electing bush? Why should bush's poodle have it any better?

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. It depends which papers you are talking about

The Mirror came out with something along the lines of "How can 60 million Americans be so dumb?", and has consistently opposed the Iraq invasion. But it's traditionally a Labour (working man's) paper, so it has to decide, as do many dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters, whether to vote against Labour, to chuck out the cuckoo in the nest that is Blair, or to hold their noses and vote Labour again, knowing he's said he'll resign towards the end of the next parliament.

The Guardian, a more intellectual left-wing paper, had a cover of its second section all in black with a small "oh, no" after the election result. They have said they're considering backing the Lib Dems this time. The Independent, similarly up-market (slightly more centrist) has already, I think, backed the Lib Dems. But these 2 papers have a relatively small circulation.

The Sun has the biggest circulation - Murdoch-owned, following his ideas, and still supporting Blair, as long as the regulatory climate remains pro-Murdoch. Most of the other papers with largeish readerships are right-wing too; they don't hate Blair for Iraq, and their readers, while they may long for the return of Maggie Thatcher, would rather put up with Blair as second-best rather than the currently incompetent Tories.

So Labour will get votes from some of its traditional supporters, and most of the centre or soft-right, if they supported the war. The Tories will only get the hard-right (some of whom will defect to the 2 or 3 xenophobic parties anyway), so their vote will stay low. The Lib Dems will get the anti-war vote, except for those who can't bear to vote for anything to the right of traditional Labour. Those people (and there's a fair amount of them) may hold their nose, especially if their local Labour candidate is anti-war; vote for Respect (who are unlikely to get more than a couple of MPs) or similar hard-left party; or just say "a pox on all your houses" and stay at home. Since many of Blair's domestic policies are bearable to Labour voters (some say that's because they're really Gordon Brown's, the powerful finance minister), it seems quite a few of them are willing to believe that Blair was stupid rather than evil about Iraq.

Some of the British DUers are long-time Labour voters: watch the UK forum for how they wrestle with their principles and consciences. Since my natural tendency is Lib Dem anyway, and I live in a constituency where Labour got less than 10% last time, I have an easy decision.

[tuvor]

5. Thanks for more information than I could have expected!

I'm also saving this to my Palmpilot to reference as the time draws near.

Thanks again, that was great of you to post this.