Atlantic and Gulf seaboard residents: Hurricane Isabel

[fishnfla]

Are you getting this? I got a bad feeling about this one, holding under and that high pressure ridge to her North, running more Westerly. A strong cat4 with 135 mph winds, last night they were jabbering about a *double eye wall* which indicates strengthening.

[RobertSeattle]

1. Track Map is pretty scary

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/081203W5.gif

[Beetwasher]

3. Thanks for the terrific map!

It's gaining strength to isn't it?

[fishnfla]

4. When you live in a target state

Everyone of these things looks like a cannonball, coming right down a bowling alley. Experience has taught me to hold tight, they'll turn. Floyd was a bastard and we bugged out, he turned last minute.

[KoKo]

8. NC Here......if you don't get it......we might: Floyd and Fran...not good!

The direction is so westward at this point it almost looks like going over So FLA and into the Carribean. We will have to wait for the turn...or whatever.

[FlaGranny]

10. Hurricane Andrew never did take that expected

turn and was in a similar location. It made a beeline for South Florida. I think we're going to have to wait several days before we'll know with better certainty where it will go.

Edit: On checking, Andrew did make a small turn to the northwest, but then it turned west again.

[Racenut20]

2. Probably will turn north

The high pressure over the mainland is very strong and would turn it. When that happens, it sucks all the moisture and humidity from the rest of the state. You will see it 85, breezy and perfect sun here on the "suncoast". The home of the Bucs, who by the way RULE !!@!!!!!!

[fishnfla]

5. I heard the were going to name a hurricane after Warren Sapp

but they wouldn't let them use "Fat Boy" some trademark thing LOL

[tkmorris]

17. Ummm, no

The high pressure ridge to the north is what will hold it on a westerly track rather than the normal turn northward, at least until early next week. Beyond that is anyone's guess but if the ridge holds (as is currently predicted) it will force the storm into Florida or perhaps even through the straits into the gulf.

[starroute]

6. Good resources at Weather Underground

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Forecast maps; historical map (showing paths taken by past hurricanes in the same area); maps of computer models, wind speeds, and strike probabilities; satellite photos; plus discussion and advisories.

Everything to keep us weather geeks happy.

[Skip Intro]

7. Been keeping an eye on this one for days

Usually by this point, the weatherpersons would be talking about a forecasted turn to the north or northeast, like with Fabian, and countless other storms which have headed this general direction but then turn away from the coast. But they aren't talking about any turns north with this one that I've heard.

I'm getting a little anxious over this one - reminding me of Hugo for some reason.

[KoKo]

12. OMG...Hugo, SC and in NC.....Fran and Floyd....I'll pack my car this time

and head North. Forget my house........whatever.....cats, hubbie and what I need......

Sorry to be so extreme.....post traumatic stress disorder........anyone who's been through a hurricane that caused devastation....gets a little worked up.......:-(

[amazona]

25. i understand that, my heart goes out to you

There is nothing quite like a century old oak tree falling on one's house, while one is in it, to make a person a bit jumpy. And my natural disaster was "only" a tropical storm.

Stay safe. I'll be thinking of you folks on the Atlantic Coast -- this one looks ugly.

[FlaGranny]

9. Yes, this one is causing concern.

Starting to make plans now. There do not seem to be any fronts coming down from the north either to push the storm on a more northerly course. I don't like the direction it is taking at all.

[bandy]

11. Palm Beach here

will wait til the weekend to panic. Its been a while since we had a good hit but hope this isn't the next one.

[hatrack]

13. Sustained Winds Now 140 MPH - 5PM AST Wednesday

Track continues steady on W/NW, about 685 miles from the Leeward Islands and barometric pressure down to 942 milibars. Try and keep an eye on this one if you're on the Gulf or in the SE.

National Hurricane Center

[fishnfla]

14. WEST not Northwest

The 5pm advisory says WEST for the next 24 hours, strengthening, this is not good

[hatrack]

15. If she doesn't turn, we've got problems - got my fingers crossed

To say nothing of what you guys down in Florida are feeling.

Sure hope this is a dodgeable bullet!

[hatrack]

18. New Strike Probability And Track Charts

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303P+GIF/102058P.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W+GIF/102058W.gif

You're right, it does seem to be trending more to the west.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. yep, this one's a "superstorm"

it also happens to share names with my daughter (same spelling and she's 4) so I'm paying attention for that reason too!

[fishnfla]

19. NYFM,

I shall be applying all sorts of derogatory words against your daughter's NAME ONLY in the coming days, towards this little *blank* of a storm. I'm sure your daughter is a sweet kid, we have 2 girls of our own and a little boy too. When I say go away you *blankety* *blankin* *blank* of a *blanking* *blank*, I am not taking your daughters name in vain. Please dont be offended.

[SoCalDem]

20. 942 MB...27.82 inches.. It's going to be HORRIBLE

Hurricane ISABEL

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Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 102025
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 10 2003

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ISABEL STRENGTHENS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF INTENSE HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
685 MILES ...1100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
AFTERWARDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS...CREATING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS...WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[fishnfla]

21. Andrew was 922mb

point of reference

[fishnfla]

22. 5am update-WEST at 10mph 936 mb pressure

heads fricken up.

[hatrack]

23. Link to 5 AM AST Update - forecast track moving slightly NW

Of course, it's only a forecast, but it's now pointing straight at central Florida .

National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/110853W5.gif

[AntiBushRepub]

24. NOAA has great info

They say the the high pressure ridge to the north is going to weaken a little in the next 36 hours, perhaps allowing a jog to the north, but after 5 days or so the ridge is supposed to be back in place... when and where that is will be crucial.

I usually ignore them because they usually turn north...(Im in palm beach county)

..this one is worth watching.

I'm always up for a good hurricaine, but not this strong.

-An

[hatrack]

26. 11AM AST Update - 150 Mph Sustained Winds, Pressure Dropping To 930

Still heading west, now about 585 miles NE of the Leeward Islands. NHC now describes this as an "extremely dangerous" storm.

National Hurricane Center

[fishnfla]

29. Those #'s are ESTIMATED

The hurricane hunters have not been in there yet

[hatrack]

37. Correct - probably still too far out for flights into the eye

Not that I can even come close to understanding how they get people to volunteer for that job! Brave men and women at work on those research flights.

[Gman]

27. Here's the 11AM discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 111436
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003

ISABEL IS MORE SYMMETRICAL-LOOKING THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT HAS A TEXTBOOK APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. THE WELL-DEFINED 25 N MI DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AVERAGE ABOUT 6.7 GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KT. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES. ISABEL SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 KT AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ISABEL NEARS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC TRACK IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. THE LATEST GFDL RUN IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AND MORE TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST FEW RUNS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS IN THE STEERING OF ISABEL APPEAR TO BE THE RIDGE NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HANDLES THESE FEATURES. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW SHOW THE TROUGH AS THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE...THEN THE HURRICANE COULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD THAN SHOWN HERE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.4N 54.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 21.8N 58.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.2N 60.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 120 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 65.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 72.0W 115 KT

[AntiBushRepub]

28. I don't know why...

I feel a little guilty about this...

I always want them to hit here...

Not that I am wishing hardship on anyone...

They just fascinate me... does anyone else think this way?

Alsready I see the typical northward curve coming up in the cards and it's dissapointing.

-An

[fishnfla]

30. There are a number of psychological reasons for this

1. You long for attention and crave some crisis so that people will give it to you
2. You hate your job, and you figure a storm will give you a few weeks off.
3. You have a chemical imbalance due to a high mercury diet
4. your sex life is boring, does the phrase "any port in a storm" turn you on?
5. In a previous life you were a samuri warrior
6. Deep down, you wish that a major hurricane were named after you.

You should seek professional help, contact the National Hurricane Center, pronto.

[AntiBushRepub]

39. I think....

even though I dont hate my job.. I think #2 is closest to the answer...

it's something about, instead of going to work that day, staying inside with some candles and maybe some cheese and bottle of wine or something with my girl (we live together) and watching the storm rage outside.

Plus I am a science buff, and fascinated by powerful weather and stuff

[Corgigal]

31. Respectfully

youre insane. HA. If that thing turns north (im in SC) it's time to pack up the kids and the pets and off we go.
We never stay for these things. The idea of not having power for a month and no running water for 3 weeks, of course if you have any home left, is good enough for me to drive to the in-laws.

I wasn't here for Yugo but man the stories. I did have a tornado hit our home on Mothers Day several years back it was only a Cat3.
No warning on that thing but if hurricane turns north, since I too have PTSD from a tornado, we're gone.

[Skip Intro]

33. It can't be - Do you live in Summerville???

I was up to visit my mom in a Summerville subdivision on Mother's Day a few years back and a tornado hit that subdivision! Her home was relatively ok, but man, some nearby homes were wiped out. Is this the Mother's Day tornado you are talking aobut?

Also, this same house is where our entire extended family rode out Hugo - one scary night, let me tell ya.

[Corgigal]

34. Small world

yep ,I live in Summerville. Must be the same Tornado.
So then you would understand most of us packing and leaving.

[Skip Intro]

35. Wow

That just blows me away, so to speak ;)

Sure, I understand leaving if it comes to that - most of the family left when Floyd looked like he was gonna rip us up instead of just grazing Chas. area. They were stuck in traffic for hours upon hours.

I stayed, and would probably stay for this one - just for the excitement (but don't hold me to that). If it hasn't turned over the weekend, this could get serious quick. I don't know why, but I have gut feeling that this one might come calling on the Charleston area.

The worst part of Hugo, btw, for those not injured or worse, of course, was the seemingly endless days and nights without power or water. It was miserable.

[KoKo]

32. Have you ever been in a bad Hurricane? Any of the big ones like Andrew,

Hugo, Fran, Floyd.....and there have been a few others in the Gulf....

[OldSoldier]

36. Worse news

If this does hit, we will have problems in rebuilding because there's a shortage of Oriented Strand Board--which is used as roof decking.

Louisiana-Pacific, who is the biggest producer of OSB (Georgia-Pacific is number two), says weather conditions and a log shortage have combined to produce a shortage of this material. Add to that the Defense Department's massive purchases of it and you see we are in trouble. I used to get this by the truckload--twenty bunks. Now I get two bunks and I'm supposed to be real happy about that. I'm not.

In the handful of hurricanes I've dealt with--Andrew, Floyd and Fran--many roofs blew off. Sometimes the hurricane takes the truss system too. If we can't replace roofing because there isn't enough material to rebuild...

I'm just waiting for the Bush maladministration to blame the hurricane, the OSB shortage or both on Clinton.

[qanda]

38. kick

For our resident weather experts to update us.

[AntiBushRepub]

40. and to answer your question...

Yes I was in Andrew, I was in Ft Lauderdale at the time, but we had wind gusts of 110+ well north of my house....

So yeah, I do know what a real hurricaine is like... I've lived in south Florida my whole life....

-An

[hatrack]

41. Isabel Now Category 5 - Winds At 160, Pressure At 921 - 5PM Thu.

Still moving steadily west, now about 500 miles NE of the Leewards.
This is the first Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Mitch in 1998.

On edit: at 921 millibars, it's now stronger than Andrew.

National Hurricane Center

[fishnfla]

45. Godamnitalltohellandbackalready!!

this sucks

[hatrack]

46. Still a fair chance it could turn, though

However, a CNN article on the storm noted that even the best tracking estimates can be off by as far as 400 miles. Not terribly comforting.

The only (potential) bright side is that Isabel may still be as much as a week from a potential US landfall - at least, I sure hope it's that long. This should give enough time for evacuations, should they be necessary.

[fishnfla]

47. yeah its too soon to panic for sure

maybe it'll turn, maybe it'll burn out some. We'll know more on Sun.

[leftchick]

42. good golly this scares me!

I am in NC and am due to fly to Europe on Wed. for the first time ever! I hope this takes a right before landfall!

[Eloriel]

43. Okay, so what does the "inches" actually measure?

Millibars is the barometric pressure, right? The lower the more ferocious the storm?

Eloriel

[hatrack]

44. Correct - if you've got a barometer in your house, it's in inches

NOAA uses millibars, but it's just a different way of expressing the same measurement - atmospheric pressure. Basically, anything 930 or lower is a mofo of a storm.

The lowest pressure ever recorded was Hurricane Gilbert, which at its worst touched bottom at 884 millibars (at least, I'm pretty sure that was the measurement), back about 15 years ago.

[Brewman_Jax]

48. The "inches" refer to inches of mercury

The first barometers used tubes filled with mercury to measure atmospheric pressure. A short article is here at http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wbaromtr.htm

[SoCalDem]

49. As of 5 AM today... down to 921...27.17 inches...runnnnawaaaay

historical data

[ShaneGR]

50. Looks like Hugo v.2

A slight curve to the north would bring it on exactly same track as Hugo. If not, it hits northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

[Terwilliger]

51. oooo...look at that eye!

[Brewman_Jax]

52. Yes, that's some eye

Very compact and well defined--a very bad sign. I'm ready to run, and I live inland.

:wow:

[fishnfla]

53. Hurricane Hunters will be out there after 2 pm today

the 5 pm update should be the most accurate so far. They have been estimating the wind speeds and pressures up til then

[fishnfla]

54. 9/13 5am update: Isabel weakens a bit, still west

They say she cant stay a #5 for more than 30 hours

[phegger]

55. I hope you're right...

my mom lives in north florida and I'm getting pretty worried


-ph :hangover:

[Noordam]

56. Isabel Tracking map updated does not look good for my

family in NC this weekend.

Look at the post 1 map.

[fishnfla]

57. You mean next weekend, i presume

the bitch-er the storm, will come ashore then