Preview of 2004- U.S. House

[TakebackAmerica]

The 6 Big House Races of 2004. <4 pickups and 2 Vulnerable Democrats.>


Weak Republican Incumbents


R Anne Northrup Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48
Highly Competitive
Since her 1996 election she has survived 3 democratic onslaughts.
Her fundraising prowess has help hold on the only democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky Gore carried and has a sizable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate we Democrats will be in a strong position to reclaim this district.

R John Hostettler Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46
Highly Competitive:
Named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat by Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. Since 1994 Rep. Hostettler has survived 4 close reelection bids.
Hostettler has raised the paltry sum of $5,018.
Expect his race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top-notch candidate in Jon Jennings.

Weak Republican Freshman

R Max Burns Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45
Highly Competitive:
Rep. Burns was able to ride the republican sweep in Georgia in victory.
Against a strong opponent he would be extremely vulnerable. Also this is a predominantly democratic district making Max Burns the weakest Republican freshman.

R Rick Renzi Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46
Competitive:

This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in primary by George Cordova. Despite his opponent 2-1 he still won by only 49-46. If Steve Udall runs or another strong democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America.











Weak Democratic Incumbents

D Dennis Moore Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47

Highly Competitive: The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered.
After 2 close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and Bush running strong in Kansas this could be the year republicans finally knock of Rep. Moore

Weak Democratic Freshman
D Rodney Alexander Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50

Highly Competitive
Rep. Alexander narrow victory over Lee Fletcher in John Cooksey’s old district was major upset. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket this race could be very close.

[goobergunch]

1. This isn't technically a dupe...

but you might want to check out http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=108&topic_id=34601&mesg_id=34601 ...it's a similar topic with about 30 replies already.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. IMHO -- all Republicans are weak.

As long as they're kissing's *'s ass, people are going to grow VERY weary of Repuke's bullshit and want to find someone else better to do the task. Watch for a major shift of the House back to the Dems hands and the Dem's side at a slight majority.

Hawkeye-X

[AndyTiedye]

3. I Wish The Outlook Were That Rosy

But one has to look at the reason why those Repubs swept Georgia, and expect that it will happen again if the crooked voting machinez are still in place.

This also does not take into account the seven more safe Republican seats that will be created in Texas, despite the valiant efforts of the Democrats there.