CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll on Dem Nominees... WITH Clark

[Dookus]

This is a poll of registered democrats choice for the nomination:


Gephardt: 16%
Dean: 14%
Lieberman 13%
Kerry: 12%
Clark: 10%
Graham: 5%
Edwards 5%
Braun: 4%
Sharpton: 2%
Kucinich 2%

Of course, the sampling error is +/- 5%, so it's all a tossup. But the interesting thing is Clark doing so well BEFORE he even announces. For those who think "it's too late" for Clark, I think this is some pretty solid evidence that it's not. He's outpacing Graham, Edwards, Braun, Sharpton and Kucinich.

[jeter]

1. I can't help but notice how Dean is hurt by this

His numbers seem to drop once Clark's name is entered.

[w13rd0]

3. They are?

Nationally?

[Renew Deal]

4. Yes n/t

[ryharrin]

7. Wrong on that. At least for this poll

Here are past results. Dean is up 2% since 8/25-26. Lieberman and "no opinion" are the real losers here.

8/25-26/03 8/4-6/03 7/25-27/03
% % %
Joe Lieberman 23 18 21
Dick Gephardt 13 15 16
Howard Dean 12 15 11
John Kerry 10 12 15
John Edwards 5 5 6
Carol Moseley Braun 5 5 6
Bob Graham 4 5 4
Al Sharpton 4 4 5
Wesley Clark 2 n/a n/a
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 2
Other 2 4 -
No one 7 5 2
No opinion 12 10 12

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[w13rd0]

12. That pollingreport page...

...is quite interesting...

[blm]

I don't think that's the same poll they used last week

Last week's had Kerry first.

[synthia]

32. as polls go, that's a rather old poll

[ryharrin]

53. What do you mean?

I posted three different sets of results for this same poll (CNN/USA Today/Gallup), the latest one was from two weeks ago. Its as recent as it gets. I was simply trying to show that there is no evidence from this poll that Clark takes away from Dean's supporters.

[CMT]

13. actually the last poll

I think last week got a lot of play becuz Lieberman was ahead nationally with and people saying Kerry got a bump from his announcement and Dean third. I think Dean had 12% in that poll. Here he is second with 14% and Kerry is in fourth. I believe that was a Time/CNN poll. I think the potential is that he will actually hurt Kerry more than Dean.

oops I see someone above me just posted the figures.

[TLM]

31. Clark won't hurt Dean at all...

The candidates who have the most to fear are those who have tried to present themselves as war heros or real tough on defense as their main asset... mainly Kerry and Graham, but also Lieberman.

If Clark enters the race, he'll pull more support from them than anybody else.

I wonder if that's not what he and Dean were meeting about. It would not surprise me if Dean wants clark to enter the race to basicaly scuttle everybody else.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

2. OMG

This is amazing, he hasn't even announced yet! I guess the free publicity was a smart move after all, it must've helped his name recognition!

DTH

[Renew Deal]

5. I saw this. wow

People have been saying that Dean's support is soft. This is more proof of that. Gephardt took off after the debates. This also just proves that Clark's strategy of waiting is working.

:wow::wow::wow:

[ryharrin]

9. Please read post 7

What about rising 2% in a couple weeks makes his support soft?

[Renew Deal]

24. I didn't see that.

I see what you mean. You are right. But that doesn't change my feeling that Dean's support is soft. You will see it.

[dean4america]

11. that makes no sense

Dean's support has gone UP 2 points since the last iteration of this poll was taken. how is that any rational basis for saying Dean's support is soft when his numbers are going UP?

[SweetZombieJesus]

15. How is this proof of that? USA Today is almost ALWAYS behind the Dem base

This is only proof of who USA Today readers, read: ill-informed twits, recognize based on their names. Dean's stock has risen slightly among the news for people who don't like the news crowd, but Gep is still more recognized.

And do we really need a breathless "WOW!" everytime Clark does well in a poll? It's not exactly a surprise, the guy is incredibly charismatic, even to the notoriously dense readership of USA Today.

USA Today polls prove nothing. The only poll I'll even remotely trust to reflect the rest of the country is Zogby, and even that is suspect.

[Dookus]

Zombie...

this was a poll of registered Democrats, not USA Today readers.

[SweetZombieJesus]

35. That still doesn't make it "soft"

When, as others have already pointed out, Dean's numbers went up 2% since the last poll.

[Dookus]

First...

I never said that, somebody else did.

I'm not arguing that point at all.

I am arguing your assertion that this poll was of USA Today readers. It wasn't.

[CMT]

18. how is it soft?

Dean is up 2-points.

[Demobrat]

6. I don't know what his announcement has to do with it.

Kerry was running for months before he announced. As was Dean. And Clark has been running almost as long. He's just playing it slightly differently.

[CMT]

23. true

plus Clark has been a television personality on CNN for quite a while and with regular appearances so he has a certain name recognition. Still he will be competitive.

[HFishbine]

8. Link?

Got one?

[David Zephyr]

10. Not to Worry: This is a Beauty Poll Based on Name Recognition.

This has nothing to do with the REAL issue that the polls that matter in the first three states with Primary/Caucus contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina ALL have Howard Dean on top.)

Also, in California which has the largest amount of delegates and which is the mother's milk of funding to candidates...Dean is way ahead in every poll.

This national poll is the only thing that Lieberman/DLC can even point to as they melt down.

It will be Dean / Clark. It's time for all Democrats to get behind the ticket.

[Dookus]

16. I think I'll wait a little bit...

thank you.

This whole idea that Dean already has it locked up is silly. He's not even ahead of Gephardt!

And Clark WILL change the political landscape in a major way. Nah, I think I'll wait a few more months before "getting behind" ANY ticket.

[tjdee]

17. Can you link to the South Carolina poll?

Who put it out, a SC paper?

[HFishbine]

22. SC

No, Zogby. With 4 tied for first.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=731

Now how about a link to the poll with Clark at 10%?

[tjdee]

38. It was an honest question.

I wasn't doubting your info, I wasn't sure if it was another poll I'd not heard.

But now that I see it's the Zogby poll, I do think you're reaching a *tiny* bit by saying Dean is "on top" in SC. But on that we'll disagree.

My original question was an honest one, though.

[HFishbine]

42. Huh?

I didn't post anything about Dean in SC. I simply extended the courtesy of providing you with a link you requested. But, look at the Zogby SC poll. It has:

Edwards: 10%
Dean: 9%
Kerry: 8%
Lieberman: 8%

Statistically a tie, as Zogby so notes. No reaching.

[tjdee]

44. In your reply to Dookus, you wrote:

(Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina ALL have Howard Dean on top.)

I disagree that the Zogby poll puts Dean on top. We're going to disagree, but I shouldn't have said you were reaching.

[HFishbine]

45. No

I didn't say that. It's no biggie, but you have me confused with another poster apparently.

[tjdee]

48. Woops, that was David Zephyr.

Sorry, my eyes went all googly.

I apologize.

:)

[tjdee]

14. This is really impressive.

So, it wouldn't appear that he's suffering for using whatever strategy he's using.

10% is really something--

*Without Even Announcing.*

If I were in this race, I'd be very concerned.

If I were Bush/Rove, I'd be getting a migraine.

[HFishbine]

27. "10% is really something"

According to who? Do you have a source?

[tjdee]

29. When you're beating half the announced candidates,

it IS really something.

10% is extremely good because it gets him above 5 of 9 candidates.

And it's also extremely good if you consider where he was on the last poll too. So in the scheme of things, 10% is looking pretty hot.

[HFishbine]

36. I meant

10% according to who?

[tjdee]

40. According to CNN during Inside Politics.

They flashed the numbers on the screen as a joint CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. I expect the numbers will show up in the "Inside Politics" transcript.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

19. my fears confirmed

dean and clark split the progressive vote and pave the way for either a dlc republicrat or rose garden appeaser like gephardt to get the nomination.

does anyone really think gephardt would stand a chance against bush? the general public sees hm as a career politician

--and i can't get past the lack of eyebrows (a cheap shot, i know, but i couldn't resist)

[blm]

20. He takes from Kerry.

Kerry was first last week without Clark.

[TLM]

43. Yeah gotta agree with BLM... Kerry has the most to lose to Clark

Clark in the race will hurt Kerry most... all the folks backing Kerry because he is a war hero, but who are not happy about his vote for the war in Iraq will flock to a war hero who was against teh war like Clark.

In fact, Clark will hurt all the guys who voted for the war. All the dems who are behind th folks who voted for the war because they think they'll be good on defense, will jump at a candidate who will also be good on defense but was against the war like Clark.

I seriously think we'll see a Dean/Clark ticket. With Dean on domestic issues and Clark on defense policy... they'd make one hell of a team.

[jos]

21. National numbers are meaningless at this point

The only polls that matter are Iowa and New Hampshire. Perhaps South Carolina and Arizona as well. National polls do not tell you how a candidate is doing in these states. And if a candidate does well in these states, the national polls will reflect that. Then they will take on some importance.

[Renew Deal]

25. Like Tsongas, McCain, Forbes, Gephardt ('88 I think)?

[HFishbine]

26. Funny

But USA Today is reporting Clark at 2% (http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-09-01-dems.htm). It's amazing that people will accept a post with no source or link.

And, FWIW, Zogby has the most recent national poll. Zogby reports:

"In the same poll, likely Democratic primary voters give a plurality of their support to former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean (16%), whose campaign has been gathering support in recent polling. He is followed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (13%), Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (12%), and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (8%). No other candidate polled more than 3%.

[Bertrand]

28. Instead of insinuating others as being liars

perhaps you could inquire about the poll rather than jumping to conclusions about the poster. It was shown on Inside politics 40 minutes or so ago.

[HFishbine]

39. What

conlcusion did I jump to about the poster?

[Bertrand]

46. "It's amazing that people will accept a post with no source or link. "

pretty obvious.

[HFishbine]

49. Well

That's hardly a comment about the poster. Geez. Don't be so sensitive.

[Bertrand]

51. Actually, it's the opposite

it is a direct comment on the poster, considering you are implying the source of the post is unreliable because there is no link to validate their claim.

[Dookus]

30. It was aired on Inside Politics...

I used TiVo to pause and transcribe the numbers exactly.

You're free to come over and see for yourself.

[SweetZombieJesus]

33. Now I have even less reason to believe it

CNN Polls are worthless, as is Inside Politics. If I wanted to watch a horse-faced idiot blather RW talking points, I'd watch Scarborough.

[HFishbine]

34. A link

will suffice.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

37. LOL!

You are funny, Dookus. :D

DTH

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I Saw The Poll With My Own Eyes

Dookus Tells The Truth....


It also had * at 52% approval....

[HFishbine]

47. Hey

Not doubting anyone's veracity; would just like to verify accuracy, examine methodology, and know the dates the poll was conducted. Nothing personal at all. I don't begrudge anybody for being enthusiastic about a dem candidate.

[Dookus]

50. well...

to be fair, I DID source the poll.

There's no link because it was on television.

I provided all the information given, including the MOE.

[0rganism]

52. Great news for Gephardt, but it's gotta piss Kerry off

Gep did quite well in the debates, and he's getting the unions behind him. Dean... well, going from darkhorse to frontrunner in a few months, it's not going to bug him to get 2nd in a few polls.

Kerry, though... he's stagnating. What's he gotta do to move forward at this point? I think he could really lay a beating on shrub in a general election, so what's he got to do to convince people of that? Something about him seems to be turning people off.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. I Can Live With Gep....

nt

[newyawker99]

55. kick