If none of the others can stop Dean, how can they beat Bush?

[KaraokeKarlton]

I don't think they can. Dean continues to pull further and further ahead of the rest of the pack. His only job right now is campaigning. Things that would virtually cripple any other campaign only makes Dean stronger. Conventional methods aren't going to work and quite honestly, I don't think any methods will work. Anyone who doesn't see why Dean is the best bet to beat Bush, in my opinioin, is in denial of what is really going on. You may not prefer Dean or agree with him on everything, but there is just no denying that if the others can't beat him that he is the best hope for getting rid of Bush.

[blm]

1. Are all the candidates running their ads already?

Have they all played their cards?

Isn't this September?

[Dookus]

2. that would be an interesting...

discussion if your facts were at all correct.

Today's latest USA Today/Gallup poll of registered democrats has Dean behind Gephardt.

Gephardt: 16%
Dean: 14%
Lieberman 13%
Kerry: 12%
Clark: 10%
Graham: 5%
Edwards 5%
Braun: 4%
Sharpton: 2%
Kucinich 2%

[indigo32]

3. Sorry but

National Polls don't mean alot right now.

[Dookus]

5. well...

the assertion was that "Dean is pulling father and farther ahead from the pack."

The latest poll doesn't show that.

And I disagree that national polls don't mean much. They have a lot to do with a candidate's fundraising ability, name recognition, media coverage and more.

[Nazgul35]

7. so the fact that Dean is

going to raise over 10 million this quarter means what?

[Dookus]

9. umm...

it means he'll have 10 million in the bank?

[caledesi]

37. That he will be the nominee...duh?

[KaraokeKarlton]

17. I'm not even talking about polls

I"m talking a combination of all things. Most money, largest crowds, most press, huge grassroots, most activists volunteering, broadest appeal (ranging from greens to moderate republicans and lots of independents as well as democrats of all varieties) and even with the polls...if you look back a couple of months ago, Dean is the only one making major progress in them. He went from a statistical tie for dead last to a tie for first (within the margin of error). I also think come September he will lead nationally. He's on top in both Iowa and NH and has surged in SC as well. If he continues as he has been (which he will do...I've seen him campaign here in Vermont) Ii don't think anyone has a chance of catching him. He doesn't have any skeletons to find and the only thing his record is going to show is that he's not really an ultra liberal and that he did a great job as governor. That's going to make him even more appealing to swing voters. His supporters know he's not a liberal and his record backs that up. He will embrace liberal issues when he believes they are the best solutions, and socially he's fairly liberal. Fiscally, he is just what the country needs. He handles money efficiently and manages to fund great programs while still balancing the budget. He cuts what doesn't work and replaces it with something that does work, in a cost effective way. He also has long term vision frequently lacking in politics. He's the ideal candidate for people who are sick of the same old, same old nonsense and ineffective political games. That's why he's pulling in so many new people to politics and activism. All over the country, Dean has attracted people who don't vote to the political process, and they are VERY eager to vote. In fact, they are downright hungry to get to the polls and vote for him. None of the others have done that. I don't think he can be beat. That's not saying the other candidates are bad. Dean is just so obviously the strongest leader. He has set the tone, the pace and everyone else is reacting to what he does...even Bush. At this point, Howard Dean is THE most influencial political voice in the country. Everyone is watching to see what he's going to say next. Browse any Republican site and they are more interested in what Dean is doing and saying than they are in what Bush is doing and saying. It's so obvious.

[Dookus]

20. Well then...

your premise is self-answering.

If none of the others can beat Dean, they won't get a chance to go against Bush, will they?

But the first votes are still a long way from being cast. Don't order the victory cake yet.

[caledesi]

38. KK - Great post. Wished I could have written it.

[paulk]

27. the only nat'l poll that means anything

is in November of next year.

My god! You Dean people are acting like you've won the game and it's only the bottom of the third inning!

[indigo32]

49. Chill

I know we haven't won it yet. Not by any means. I was just saying that right now... Iowa, NH and SC matter more than a national poll. That is all.

[Nazgul35]

6. because a national poll matters...

NOT! You need to look at the polls that have been conducted in Iowa and NH where the candidates have been active...and if Geps you guy, the news isnt good for him at all as the latest story has Edwards and Dean outpolling him for the SIEU union's endorsement...and he probably wont get the AFL-CIO endorsement, which is a major set back for him...

[Dookus]

10. LOL...

because I post a poll that shows Gephardt in the lead, you jump the conclusion that I'm a Gephardt guy? That's silly.

I'm merely reporting what was shown on CNN TODAY.

It does NOT indicate that Dean is pulling farther and farther away from the pack. That statistic is true regardless of who I support. And btw, it's not Gephardt.

[Nazgul35]

60. nope...

I said if gep is your guy...if he's not, than you disregard the comment...

[HFishbine]

31. Just for clarity

The poll was not of registered democrats but of DEMOCRATS or DEMOCRAT LEANERS and it has a margin of error of 5%. And the actual numbers are:

Gephardt: 15%
Dean: 13%
Lieberman: 12%
Kerry: 11%
Clark: 9%
Moseley Braun: 5%
Graham: 5%
Edwards: 5%
Sharpton: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-09-11-poll-results.htm

A poll of LIKELY DEMOCRATIC VOTERS has it a little differently, with a margin of error of 4.5%:

Dean: 16%
Kerry: 13%
Lieberman: 12%
Gephardt: 8%
Others: < 3%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=732

[Nederland]

4. Easy

By being more appealing to the general electorate than Dean is to Democratic primary voters.

[MercutioATC]

8. I'm a Dean supporter, but you've hit the issue on the head.

I think Dean will do that, but you're right. Beating Bush is about the general electorate...a totally different group than Dem primary voters.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Catch 22.

They have to get by Dean first to get to the General. (Pre-supposing, of course, that the original premise is true)

[molly]

11. Dean comes off as an angry liberal - then he comes off as

a compromising fool. Which is it? Tell me what he stands on? He does not have a history because it is sealed - he can say anything he wants. The general public is not THAT stupid.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. Compromising fool, of course.

:eyes:

[Jim Sagle]

14. Neither are we, friend.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. Did I detect a tone there?

[caledesi]

39. Excuse me, but it's Dean anger that got the pink tu-tu Dems to

finally start criticizing *.

He was the FIRST to mention the forbidden word (Clinton).

He was the FIRST to effect the "take back our country" attitude.

He resonates and although I like Kucinich very much and I know he has opposed the war, was straight-out about *'s failures, he just didn't resonate like Dean has. If he had resonated (like Byrd), he would be out in front now.

Don't get me wrong, if Kucinich becomes the nominee, I will vote for him in a heartbeat, but Dean has come out of nowhere, like Clinton and that says a lot.

[molly]

42. What are pink tu-tu Dems ?

activists wet dreams of DEM congress people trying to do a job to make the DEMS fair better while turning off all or most of the general public?

I do NOT like Dennis - he's too off the wall - I lived in Cleveland during his boy-mayor years. Does he have a wife - BTW? If not - why not? If he's gay - that's OK - just say so. If he has a problem with realtionships - that's NOT OK.

It's like someone wanting a spouse that is TOTALLY different from the one they married - in both ideals and mood. You just can't realistically have your wet dream. That's exactly what it is - a fantasy - this is real life and we need the best person to deal with it.

[JohnKleeb]

43. on Dennis no he isnt gay

Hes divorced and has a girlfriend. Also he has a good record from gay rights groups, 100's from the human rights campaign. Also for the record Molly, I dont consider Kerry a tutu wearer, to tell the truth I think he gets a raw deal at times.

[WilliamPitt]

15. Simple

The ultra-liberal base votes in the Dem primaries, and the general population votes in the general election. Dean can craft a campaign that plays to the base for the primaries, and thus beat candidates who have broader appeal to the general population.

P.S. This is not necessarily a good thing.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

19. However,

Dean is not an ultra-liberal, nor has he played one on TV; despite the characterizations of others. He's well situated, imo.

P.S. Doesn't mean someone can't come from behind and kick his ass.

[WilliamPitt]

21. He's definitely not an ultra-liberal

but the fact that he has the base so fired up means he is playing to them...or suits them for now.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Or it is other than the traditional base.

Or both. :shrug: Just a thought.

[w4rma]

25. I think that Dean has done a good job in explaining to the Democratic

base that he is *not* a liberal. I think that most Dean supporters know this and expect Dean to move towards rhetoric that brings in moderates. If you've ever listened to a rally by him, he is always talking about how he is a centrist and he give example after example. He's not going to come out and surprise most folks. You saw the debates, he toned down his passion for the moderate viewers in the recent 2 debates.

Yes, a few people will start complaining, but the rest of Dean's supporters will talk to them and explain to them that he's running to win and govern, not to go out in a big ball of flame. Dean has set himself up for the long term, IMHO.

[KaraokeKarlton]

30. This is a whole new "base", Will

This isn't the "base" your Momma told you about. These are brand new activists...and they aren't liberal. They are the "no more Bush base".

[blm]

52. Should the old activists go away?

Should we be stepped over, stepped on, brushed aside?

All those who have been holding down the Democratic fort while others spent years ignoring the base and the left?

The ones who went to work everyday battling the A team of the GOP like Rove, Newt, DeLay and their ilk? They have no value today?

[KaraokeKarlton]

54. Nope...

The old activists are doing their thing, as they should. Dean does have plenty of those as well...but it's a huge misconception that this is all he has. This is why the DLC is entirely ineffective in any attempts to stop Dean. They can't succeed. There are too many people who only got excited and involved because of Dean's candidacy. This entire phenomenon is exactly why the assumption that Dean isn't electable is ridiculous. Not only is he electable...but if he continues to have this effect on new voters and all Democrats vote for him in the general election, he will be UNSTOPPABLE. He'll blow Bush entirely out of the water. Whether you like him or not, you have to admit that the idea of that is absolutely delicious. You like Kerry best...so support and vote for him in the primaries. But at the same time, don't begrudge Dean all he's doing. He's not stealing liberals from Kerry (and I know you feel like he's doing this)...he's bringing in NEW voters. As long as we all unite when all is said and done, there is NOTHING that can save Bush's arse...nothing. When push comes to shove...Dean is your friend, not your foe. No amount of trying to "talk sense" into Dean supporters by pointing out that Dean isn't a liberal is going to gain further support for Kerry. This is something you really seem to misunderstand. Dean's support has nothing to do with anyone thinking he's a liberal or his supporters being liberals. It's far bigger than that. This is about rescuing our country from the clutches of the religious right wing fanatics. We're going to do it and nothing is going to take us off that path. Nothing.

[KaraokeKarlton]

29. Will, you're too smart to fall for the "Dean is too liberal" nonsense

I live in Vermont and Dean is not a liberal, not by a long shot. He does have the ability to get some liberal leaning agenda passed, but he's not liberal. I'm one of those very voters you are concerned that Dean won't appeal enough to. I'm a registered Independent who never votes by party. I sometimes vote for moderate Republicans and sometimes vote for moderate Democrats. I won't vote for radicals on either side of the political fence. I liked both Clinton and the first Bush, overall. I didn't like some things about both, but think overall, they did a pretty good job. I have a lot more respect for Dean than either of them, too. I'm not seeing ultra liberals at the meetups I go to in NH (one in NH is closer to me). I'm seeing just a few very liberal people (they are the minority, actually). Instead, I'm seeing mostly common sense moderates, smart, all ages and highly devoted to Dean. Most of these people have NEVER been active to politics before. These aren't the super liberal activists who typically make up grassroots. This is a whole new movement...average, everyday Americans who are pissed off and have found someone who inspires them to do something to change things for the better. It's about hope more than anger. Anger is what got us there, but hope is what fuels us. We are a revolution, a movement that will not be stopped. We're growing more every day by the thousands. It's not about being against the war, either. It's about being against the hijacking of our country by the right wing and being hell bent on taking it back. Dean will trounce Bush decidedly. I have never been more certain of anything in my life. Don't buy into the misconception that this is about taking the party too far left. It's about doing what's right for this country and refusing to buy into the lies and nonsense being fed to us by corrupt politicians. We were ready for this movement but no one stood up to lead it...that's what Dean has done and that's why he has caught fire. There is much, much more to this campaign than meets the eye. If you haven't done so...go to a meetup and talk to people. Check it out for yourself. My local group isn't just helping Dean. They have activated community volunteers called Dean Corps. They collected school supplies for poor children and are currently organizing a blood drive. People are getting involved in making our communities a better place. It's absolutely amazing. I almost feel sorry for those who aren't a part of it. It's wonderful and so empowering.

[HFishbine]

33. Speculation

Data would indicate something different than your speculation that Dean is playing to "the base."

About the latest KRC Communication poll of New Hampshire democrat and independent voters:

"In one of the more telling numbers, Dean had more appeal among those who voted for Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the 2000 New Hampshire GOP primary. More than half of McCain supporters - 54 percent - said they backed Dean and 15 percent supported Kerry. McCain beat George W. Bush in that primary, largely on his appeal to independent voters.

http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/politics/story/992263p-6966702c.html

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. last I checked, no votes have been cast

and no delegates won. :eyes:

[Cocoa]

22. by definition they can't

for someone to beat Bush, they'd have to be the nominee. But if they can't stop Dean, then that would mean Dean is the nominee, so Dean would be the one beating Bush, not them, if you follow what I'm saying.

[Brian Sweat]

23. Fallacious asumption that the Democratic primaries and

the national election are equitable. I candidate can win the Democratic primaries and loose the national election while a candidate who might be able to win the national election, might not be able to win the Democratic primaries.

[Nicholas_J]

26. Thats funny

The poll that show Dean ahead in NH has him stalled at the same number (38 percent , two polls running, and Kerry pulling up fast, with Deans lead dropping from 17 percent to 12 percent). Two Zogby polls have him at 38 percent and KRC communications have him at 38 percent and have Kerry showing the forward momentum now, barely ten days after his announcing his campaign formally. Denas campaign has simply stopped moving in N.H., and is only sligtly moving in Iowa.

Between June and August, Dena had large increases in the polls, they began getting smaller, and in N.H. have stalled comleltely.

[w4rma]

28. The two polls you speak of were taken at nearly the same period of time

by two different polling companies and were within the margin of error of one another.

[HFishbine]

34. Link?

"The poll that show Dean ahead in NH has him stalled at the same number"

Have a link?

[MercutioATC]

35. Will you recant when the numbers move ABOVE 38%?

Dean has been "stalled" at 38% for two weeks (and still holding a double-digit lead). You've just claimed that his "campaign has simply stopped moving in N.H., and is only sligtly moving in Iowa".

If and when these numbers go up again, will you admit he hadn't stalled, or will you just scream "STALL" at the next two-week plateau?

By the way, Dean's free to "stall" anywhere he likes, as long as he keeps doing it with higher numbers than the rest of the candidates.

[caledesi]

41. I am sure that sny other candidate would love to be in that

"stalled" position.

Time, Newsweek, US News and Word Report...hello?

Dean isn't a candidatate; he's a movement.

I am switching from my Independent status to Dem, all because of Dean.

[HazMat]

32. If none of the others can stop McGovern, how can they beat Nixon ?

Surely McGovern, not someone "Nixon-lite" like Muskie, is the strongest candidate ?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

44. touche HazMat!

and welcome to DU! (BTW do you specialize in materials hazardous to Dean?) :)

[HazMat]

55. Thanks NYFM !

Oh contraire ! Dean, Bush and the IWR are the hazardous materials -- the key ingredients in Rove's toxic brew :

IWR (meaningless in reality -- Bush didn't need it to go to war) to split the party and give us an unelectable candidate =
Dean nomination = Bush re-election = DISASTER.

Democrats like myself are the HAZMAT unit working to prevent disaster !

[HazMat]

61. Pardon my French --- that's "au contraire".

Stupid Americans :)

[uptohere]

36. the jury is still out on the stopping Dean thing

there are about 4 months to operate and there are already, in the last 2 weeks, signs that the winds are shifting away form the gale force Dean has enjoyed.

Should be an interesting ride.

[JohnKleeb]

40. Its still September for crying out loud

I hate being a jerk, I hate it to death but you know it is rather unfair to claim victory this early on. I am not in denial at all actally, I am very happy with my candiate and in fact I think today was a great day for us. Trust me morale is high as ever for me, I also dont share this philosophy of saying someone is bound to win because of whats happening now, tommorow could bring showers, the day after that sunshine, thats what life is all about, its full of suprises. I think it is rather unfair of you to claim victory now. I dont like being mean but I think you are misunderstanding this, I admit I am young and a rookie at this but something tells me that you can not especially not even a half of year before a convention claim that youre bound to win. For fall could bring good for the Kucinich campaign or whatever. Also to quote the immortal Yogi Berra, "it aint over till its over"
With Respect,
JK

[AP]

45. The whore media has given Dean all his oxygen. You don't think

they'll cut it off when he's running against Bush?

Let's rewind to 2000. One of the reasons Bush had an easy time of running against Gore was because the Republicans knew in 1992 that they'd probably be running against him. They built W to beat Gore, in many respects.

It's 2004. Does Bush have the luxury of knowing in advance who he's running against? Nope. So he's getting a big assist from the media. They're building him a candidate whom they will serve up on a silver platter for the media and for Bush-Cheney-Rove to feast upone. And I'm sorry to say folks, but Clark's the other one they'd like to run. How better to keep the focus on national security than run against a Democratic who raises no thoughts of the economy among voters and who embodies militarism. That will keep the debate firmly were Bush wants to have it.

So, maybe Dean and Clark can win even if Rove and the media think they can't. Nonetheless, I'm going to be looking for the candidate who can raise interest despite the media's spin. I want a candidate who defines him or her self, and not one who is who the media says he is.

[poskonig]

46. The media stunts were our doing.

Running ads in Texas during Bush's vacation, coming out to support Davis, the beat Cheney fundraiser, et cetera, are all examples of the genius the Dean campaign.

Plus being attacked daily by Edwards, Kerry, and company keeps Dean in the news, which helps us even more!

[AP]

51. My favorite stunt...getting the cover of Time and Newsweek the same week.

How'd you do that? Amazing. The Howard Stern endorsement. Nice stunt. The constant puffery of his candidacy by cable TV talking heads in the employ of AOL-TW, Viacom, ABC-Disney, and GE-NBC...nice stunt.

Edwards defends himself from a false accusation twice and that's an attack? Right. I'll grant that Lieberman attacked him, but somebody had to. Kerry "attacks" were mostly defenses.

And I'm curious about this new spin about how others are attacking Dean. Did you all get Personnel Messaged with this new tactic? Is the Dean camp discovering that being the attacker doesn't have much appeal beyond the small core of supporters? Is the counterspin going to be that he gets attacked and he's only defending himself?

[Starpass]

47. you may be surprised at what might just stop Dean

good god, the game has just begun.

[Pepperbelly]

48. you are putting the cart before the horse ...

There has not been a single vote cast.

Not one.

Dean hasn't been stopped nor has Kerry, Lieberman, Sharpton, Braun, Gephardt, Kucinich, Graham, Edwards, or, if he enters, Clark.

[JohnKleeb]

50. hasnt been one primary election yet

I agree with you PB. Tommorow could bring anything and tommorow is a metaphor for anytime.

[blm]

53. Dean will defeat Dean.

.

[AnAmerican]

57. blm...you stole my line :)

I honestly was thinking the same thing when I got to your post.

Keep it up. :)

[DemBones DemBones]

59. You've got it!

:thumbsup:

[DemPopulist]

56. Did you used to be CentaurMyst?

Just curious. :hi:

[KaraokeKarlton]

58. Who's that?

Not sure why you asked, but since I don't know who you're talking about I guess it would have to be no.