http://www.tcf.org/Opinions/Public_Opinion_Watch/July29-August31_2003.htmlPublic Opinion Watch
July 29-August 31, 2003
Bush Position Continues to Deteriorate
Pew Research Center poll of 2,528 adults, released August 7, 2003 (conducted July 14–August 5, 2003)
CBS News poll of 798 adults, released August 13, 2003 (conducted August 11–12, 2003)
Dana Milbank and Mike Allen, “Security May Not Be Safe Issue for Bush in ’04,” Washington Post, August 22, 2003
Princeton Survey Research poll of 1,011 adults for Newsweek, released August 23, 2003 (conducted August 21–22, 2003)
CBS News poll of 930 adults, released August 29, 2003 (conducted August 26–28, 2003)
Well, Public Opinion Watch is back from the beach––tan, rested, and ready, as they say––and he notes, with considerable interest, that public disenchantment with Bush is continuing and intensifying. Start with the Pew Research Center data, released on August 7. That poll has Bush’s approval rating down to 53 percent, with 37 percent disapproval, the highest disapproval of his presidency. Bush now has given back all of the approval spike and more he got from the Iraq war; indeed he’s down over twenty points in this poll (about five points a month) since his high of 74 percent when the statue of Saddam came down in Baghdad. While he’s unlikely to keep on losing approval at this clip, he doesn’t have far to go before he starts dipping below 50 percent, an unambiguous danger sign for incumbents.
The poll also has about an even split between those who say that they would like to see Bush reelected (40 percent) and those who say that they would prefer that the Democratic candidate win the election (39 percent). In addition, the Democrats have a seven-point lead on party identification, once independents who lean toward a party are factored in. If more evidence of Bush vulnerability is needed, consider this: by thirty points, the public now says that it is more important for Bush to focus on the economy (57 percent) than on the war on terrorism (27 percent). When the public is asking you to focus on your chief area of weakness, that’s not a good sign.
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