Interesting graphic I came across...

[eauclaireliberal]

Intersting, too is the fact that his highest ratings always comes from a source called Harris (COUGH).

[baldguy]

1. Look for another "crisis" in the near future.

He peaked after 9-11. He peaked again at the start of Iraq II.

And his ratings tank immediatly afterward. Also, notice the most recent peak is smaller and he's losing ground FASTER now. Pretty soon he won't be able to create a crisis big enough to fool anybody.

[punpirate]

2. If I were to do a linear regression...

... of all those points, I think we'd find that the slope of decline after the invasion is also steeper than that after 9/11. I also wonder about the points for the American Research Group. What is it about their method or sampling that puts their numbers 15-20 points below the peaks, fairly consistently?

[targetpractice]

3. Actually ABC/Post seems to be highest on average

Harris is a solid blue diamond, whereas ABC/Post is a blue diamond with black border.

[rasputin1952]

4. I am not necessarily a "poll" person...

(but I will admit to enjoying watching the #'s fall). However, the schematic here shows sharp spikes during both real and perceived crises. This tells me that the people being polled are looking for leadership; but on finding little to none, the #'S fall. At this point, they seem to be tumbling, and a new low may achieved in the near future.

In essence, I would concur that an "October Surprise" is in the works, and it will be bordering on the "horrendous". But the leadership is lacking, so they will work on fear and disinformation, just as they always have. Let's hope people have learned to see through this hall of smoke and mirrors.