Time to face the fact that Clark will be the next President

[CoffeePlease1947]

The reality is the Clark will be elected the next President of the United States. If you look at the reality of the situtation Clark will get the nomination and Bush will be defeated in the General election.

Clark is now just behind, Kerry, Lieberman, Dean and Gephardt.

Come Iowa Gephardt will lose and be out of the race. New Hampshire Kerry will lose and be out of the race. That leaves Lieberman,Dean, and Clark.

Lieberman is in a free fall in the ratings and will be out of the race by Michigan being unable to win a single primary.

This leaves only two men strongly in the race Dean and Clark.

Most of Clark's support will be in the South and the Mid-West. Dean will be strong in the far Western coastal states and in the New England states.

Dean's strength is weakened by delegates going to Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman in the New England States, and Liberman will make sure Dean loses to Clark in New York and southern Florida amoung Jewish voters.

Clark's support will not be as fierce with Graham, Edwards, and Sharpton in the Southern states.

The Clintons will back Clark in the close race and pressure the Super delegates to vote for Clark.

Clark will squeak out the nomination by a small margin. Maybe even in a broker convention.

Bush will lose in the general election because of a low turnout amoung Republicans that he has alienated and a strong turn out by Democrats that want to remove Bush. Also the economy will be weak swinging independants to vote with their check books like they do most the time.

Clark will be the next President. I would put money on it.

Mike

[Booberdawg]

1. LOL!

[creativelcro]

2. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL!

[IndianaGreen]

3. Clark's mission is to knock the waffling Kerry off the race

that's the extent of Clark's contribution to Election 2004, and for that, I am grateful.

[CoffeePlease1947]

11. I like Kerry but

He doesn't need any help knocking himself out of the race. He is doing a fine job of it himself. He needs some life in his campaign. When I watch him I don't know if I want to cry or just fall asleep.

Furthermore, polls show that Clark will pull equally from Dean, Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt. So I don't think that will do much any more or less damage to any other candidate. But all of them equally will be damaged.

Mike

[HFishbine]

26. Got Data?

"Furthermore, polls show that Clark will pull equally from Dean, Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt."

Really? Do you have any source other than your own pronouncement to back that up?

[TLM]

60. Yeah the last poll I saw showed Dean going up 2 points with Clark in there

Clark enters the race and he'll pull the military support vote and the big pro-defense vote... which is already split between lieberman, graham, and Kerry.

Clark entering the race will help Dean by taking out the rest of the field.


I suspect this was the plan.

[Clark Can WIN]

47. I just want to know how long

You can keep telling yourself these things. Uh, you DID SAY that Clark was DEFINATELY NOT RUNNING.

You will continue to be wrong, and for that, I am grateful.

[blm]

48. Hahah...sure...that's why FOBs are dividing between Kerry and Clark?

It's more like they plan to change the debate to national security and foreign policy and Clark brings that issue up anew to counter Dean's media run.

You think From dropped support for Lieberman to move to the left and quietly get behind Kerry on his own? That was vintage Clinton.

You think the Brady campaign and Million Moms came out against Dean on their own? They are FOB.

You think Edelman (longtime FOB and H) is supporting Kerry without consulting the Clintons?

You think Henry Cisneros rallying the Hispanic vote for Kerry is just a coincidence?

You think the Chicago teamsters breaking with the national teamsters to endorse Kerry after having a meeting Clinton, was JUST a coincidence?

The DNC is still on their expected ticket. It will be Kerry-Edwards with Clark groomed to step in if Edwards doesn't catch on. Then Edwards will get Attorney General.

Just announced another FOB:
September 16, 2003
Chicago -

Former Clinton Campaign Manager and DNC Chair David Wilhelm endorsed John Kerry for President today, during a discussion the two men held with Chicago small business owners about how to best fuel small business growth and provide health insurance through tax credits and tax cuts for middle-class Americans. Wilhelm will head up the campaign’s efforts in Illinois.

Wilhelm, president of Wilhelm & Conlon Public Strategies, previously managed Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, and subsequently served as the chair of the Democratic National Committee, the youngest person ever to do so. He has also directed the 1989 and 1991 campaigns of Mayor Richard M. Daley, as well as the 1984 campaign of Senator Paul Simon. He has served at the head of Wilhelm & Conlon since its founding in 1998.

Wilhelm and Kerry, longtime proponents of small business interests, spent the afternoon talking with small business owners about ways to provide affordable health insurance to employees through tax credits, and discussed why it is vital to support hardworking families through middle-class tax cuts. Senator Kerry, ranking member and former Chairman of the Senate Small Business Committee and once a small business owner himself, knows that the best way to bring prosperity back to America is by supporting small businesses in their efforts to provide affordable health care and help hardworking middle class families by refusing to raise their taxes.

“I am honored to receive David Wilhelm’s endorsement and to have him join this campaign. David is not only a political leader, but a prominent business leader, and he knows what it takes to fuel growth and support hardworking middle-class Americans. David Wilhelm knows how to beat a Bush in the White House, he knows we can do it again, and I am honored to have him leading up our team in Illinois,” said John Kerry.

http://johnkerry.com/news/releases/pr_2003_0915c.html

[Julien Sorel]

4. Great analysis!

But there's already enough of this 'my candidate is guaranteed to win' stuff. Wouldn't this be better if you cushioned it a little by not stating it as a fact that Clark will win, and not offering to bet money on it? That sort of thing only arouses resentments, both against you and against Clark. There's enough of that going around.

'Why I think Clark will win.' 'A scenario that could lead to Clark winning.' Anything but saying 'It is time to face the fact...' which sounds arrogant and confrontational.

I really do like your enthusiasm, by the way! I just hate to see Clark moving onto the same plane as some of the other candidates, with over-the-top, tendentious supporters who are so in-your-face about their candidate's superiority that they end up turning you off to him. :-)

[trumad]

5. Maybe

But if he speaks on the stump the way I saw him speak at the University of Central Florida he's got an upward road ahead!

[Julien Sorel]

6. Not having seen him at UCF myself,

perhaps you can expound on what you saw?

[trumad]

28. You know...

it's hard to describe...But I just get the feeling the guy doesn't have that pound the podium mentality required for the average moron American... Look...I love the guy and think he's more than qualified... BUT... he needs some fire IMHO!

[Nazgul35]

31. Hey!!!

UCF alum checking in!!!!

Well, I guess since he's gonna win I don't have to go vote now...it's a done deal....pulllleeeeeeessssssseeeeee!!!!!

[clar]

7. Billy,

Brilliant post! All supporters of all the candidates should maintain some sensitivity towards others. Touting the inevitability of any single candidate comes off as arrogance. Thanks for posting this.

[CoffeePlease1947]

8. You are probably right

But I didn't post this win over people. They will come over as their candidate is knocked out of the race. I am just stating the facts. I know that Clark will be the next President. Gephardt, Lieberman, and Kerry just are not attracting enough support to beat Dean. And the DLCers are not going to allow Dean the nomination. The only way to stop him is to back someone besides those three without looking like they are sabatoging Dean's campaign. That only leaves Clark.

Clark is also out best chance against Bush. Sure Dean can come close to winning. But the DLCers are not going to allow him the nomination.

Clark will win. I am that confident of it. I see no other defeating Bush in 2004.

Mike

[Julien Sorel]

12. Cool, and I have no desire to debate you on

your logic, being a big Clark fan myself. I myself do not proselytize for Clark here much, either. It's just that, when things are presented in a certain way, it can lead to problems that everyone wished didn't happen later. :-)

[mdmc]

52. I would love to live in Clark's America

Is he going to campaign and run or should we just wish for him?

[blm]

62. This is pretty premature, don't ya think?

There sure seems to be alot of assumption in your post....and you never even factored in the point that 60% of the Dem voters have yet to tune in to the election.

[peabody71]

9. Clark had better be ready to give rousing speaches.

He's never run a political campaign in his life.
I've heard him speak but have yet to hear a passioned campaign style speach. We've got to see what he's got. Otherwise Dean is a sure winner with his motivating style.
I still say Dean/Clark in o4' is an unbeatable combination.

[Jim Sagle]

10. Haw haw haw!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brucey]

13. Maybe you should switch to

decaf.

[bowens43]

14. At this time Clark isn't even a candidate.

Lot's of assumptions , few facts.

[Kolesar]

15. He will never become president if he does not announce he is running

I think it is premature and a bit deceptive to cite and project trends from September 2003 polling data. Most primary voters do not know the candidates yet.

[CoffeePlease1947]

16. He will announce this week.

It is awesome he is doing so well and has not even entered the race yet.

Mike

[lanlady]

17. sounds good to me

I truly feel Clark has what it takes to defeat Bush. I've been a Dean supporter but I'm concerned about his winnability. If Clark runs a smart campaign, the hogs in Crawford may just have to make way for a new pen-mate....

I also don't think the Great GOP Smear Machine will get far with Clark. As a 4-star, Clark is a military leader and smearing military leaders does not sit well with most Americans.

In the "let's be shallow, shall we" department, women will go nuts for Clark. He is one good-looking guy.

[peabody71]

18. Any Dem, in a fair election, can beat Bush.

Bush is a one term President by any traditional indicators.
Like Clinton said, once the candidate has been chosen "fall in line".
And push for election reform!

[Lexingtonian]

19. I hope your crystal ball is still under warrantee

because it's channeling from a universe not actually our own.

As a basic repair I suggest the 'Help, I need a Clue' resetting. It's a button very few people know about.

While I don't work off one myself, the 'wave hands and guess optimistically, ignoring reality' advice it seems to suggest is usually Wrong.

Your 'analysis' would be mildly plausible if the United States of America only consisted of white people. Since it doesn't, and Clark personally doesn't understand the Culture War for what it is either (an ignorance shared with Dean and Gore), there really isn't any chance of a very high minority turnout for either Clark or Dean. Think 'Perot voter'. It's my problem with the Deansane and the Weasleyite both.

[CoffeePlease1947]

24. Think what ya want

But you might want to rethink it in November when you have to choose between Clark and Bush. When Clinton, Gore, and Hillary endorse Clark he will be unbeatable for the nomination.

Mike

[dfong63]

20. your reality is a tad unreal

esp considering that your man hasn't even been able to stop gazing at his navel long enough to declare that he's definitely in the race.

[CMT]

21. I guess what I will say is what

some others have said when carried away supporters of Howard Dean have written the same sort of thing--it is too early to tell. Clark could be the next president but then so could Dean, Edwards, Kerry, or Gephardt in mho.

[Terwilliger]

22. I think the reality is that that's wishful thinking

and if the DLC likes Clark...it should be a RED FLAG to a lot of people :eyes:

[DemExpat]

23. I certainly hope so!

I back Clark 100% because I like him (my impression of him), I want a Democratic President again, he's smart, and he is so electable!

:kick:

DemEx

[HFishbine]

25. Bogus Assumptions, Broken Logic

"Come Iowa Gephardt will lose and be out of the race.

followed by

"Dean's strength is weakened by delegates going to Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman in the New England States...

Contradictory statements. If Gephardt is out after Iowa, how does he take votes away from Dean in the later New England primaries?

"Lieberman is in a free fall in the ratings and will be out of the race by Michigan..."

followed by

"Liberman will make sure Dean loses to Clark in New York and southern Florida amoung Jewish voters."

Contradictory statements. The New York and Florida primaries are a month after Michigan. If Lieberman drops out by Michigan, how does he take votes away from Dean a month later?

The rest is supposition. Bogus assumptions and broken logic. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but as a reasoned analysis, this fails.

[Hamlette]

27. The Republicans would rather someone else

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/16/opinion/16BROO.html?hp

The results of the highly prestigious Poll of the Pollsters are in! I called eight of the best G.O.P. pollsters and strategists and asked them, on a not-for-attribution basis, if they thought Howard Dean would be easier to beat than the other major Democratic presidential candidates. Here, and I'm paraphrasing, are the results:

"Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!"

You would have thought I had asked them if Danny DeVito would be easier to beat in a one-on-one basketball game than Shaquille O'Neal. They all thought Dean would be easier to beat, notwithstanding his impressive rise. Some feared John Kerry, others John Edwards, because his personality wears well over time, and others even Bob Graham, because he can carry Florida, more than Dean. As their colleague Bill McInturff put it atop a memo on the Dean surge: "Happy Days Are Here Again (for Republicans)."


<snip>
Democrats have become detached from antipolitical independent voters. George Bush makes many liberal Democrats froth at the mouth, but he does not have this effect on most independents. Democrats are behaving suicidally by not embracing what you might, even after yesterday's court decision, call the Schwarzenegger Option: supporting a candidate so ideologically amorphous that he can appeal to these swingers.

Which is why so many Republicans are quietly gleeful over Dean's continued momentum. It is only the dark cloud of Wesley Clark, looming on the horizon, that keeps their happiness from being complete.

[Woodstock]

38. Remember - these are the people who named pollution increases

the Clear Skies Initiative. And giveaways of fire resistant trees the Healthy Forrest Initiative.

I wouldn't take them at their word on thinking Dean so easy to beat.

To say they are devious would be an understatement.

They are Borg. The sole mission of the collective: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[CWebster]

29. All this drama and baited breath on what's he gonna do

and its a big ol' bellyflop with barely a ripple. Hehe.

[ArkDem]

30. You have had too much coffee

.

[ShimokitaJer]

32. I tend to like Clark...

and I'm willing to hear reasons to support him.

Sorry, but "he's definitely going to win" isn't one of them.

Then again, if his win is inevitable, I guess it's not really necessary to appeal to the undecided like myself.

[shihtzu5]

34. History to be made when Clark announces

I appreciate your analysis; don't know if it will all go exactly as you predicted, but IMHO General Wesley Clark will be the next President of the United State. This, assumming of course, that the Bush Crime Family doesn't institute another attack on America or find another way to "take out" the General.

I have no dog in this fight, as, sorry folks, but no other Democratic candidate has light my fire as yet. I am 65 years old, one of those old 60 hippies mentioned in a post of a few days ago, and have voted a straight democratic ticket in every election since age 21 (John Kennedy).

You don't need me to reiterate all that Wesley Clark has going for him; it is part gut instinct and part realization of the fact that The General is the real deal and perhaps the only candidate that can stand up to all of the Roveraian/Crime Family dirty tricks, that convinces me that he is perhaps our only hope.

Aside from Ditto-monkeys, Christian Crazies and Rabid-Right-Wingers, just who would not find the General to be a one of the finest candidates to come along in a long long time?

[Hell Hath No Fury]

40. Me!

"Aside from Ditto-monkeys, Christian Crazies and Rabid-Right-Wingers, just who would not find the General to be a one of the finest candidates to come along in a long long time?"

I am none of the above and guess what? I do not find him to be one of the "finest". He has zero experience in politics, he has no voting record/paper trail for me to refer to on the issues, and his lead up to announcing has frankly left me annoyed.

He has a l-o-n-g way to go to convince me he is the best choice for President.

[Nederland]

33. Wow

You're really cocky about his chances. Care to put your money where your mouth is?

[PurityOfEssence]

35. We hate ourselves so much we couldn't find a candidate in the whole party

Can't wait to hear that one from the fascists...

Couldn't find a decent champion in the entirety of the Democratic Party so we had to go outside to a non-democrat and find a military man to try and dispel the reality that we aren't lily-livered loserfaces...

Whatever.

[Woodstock]

36. If that happens I won't be unhappy at all

but it's much too soon to call.

[Mari333]

37. Im just some old lady BUT

Heres what would knock the pants off the GOP
Dean/Clark
Clark/Dean
why?
The women voters would go for the doctor, the man who cares about social concerns, health care, children, and the environment
The men sitting the fence, or even the ones wallowing in warmongering, would go for Clark, who actually served.
There are a great many people who are sick of Bush, but sit on the fence...and the white male voters who voted for Bush would embrace an actual veteran rather then a smirking fratboy who is sending their jobs overseas..
Thats my 2 cents.

[Woodstock]

39. Excellent

Right on target.

[Noordam]

42. Clark would be a good VP you are right.

[prolesunited]

44. I tend to like that ticket as well

whoever is on top.

[Noordam]

41. LOL you are so funny.

Clark is a good VP but he played with himself to long for the top job.

[Patriot_Spear]

43. Dean still has the 'Music'.

Clark will have to do more than just enter to get my vote.

[Melinda]

45. Facts? You want facts? I got yer facts right here.........

Fact: Clark's addition to the democratic field of 9 is a fine thing. He brings unique credentials and strengths to our wonderful pool of candidates, all of which (with the possible* exception of that guy from CT... Joe whatshisname) exemplify the best of our party.

I say welcome General Clark, let the cream rise to the top while we at watch, listen, analyze, debate amongst ourselves, support, and ultimately come together to choose the BEST nomineee among y'all. Fact is we can never forget why Gen Clark, the other hopefuls, or the rest of us is here today, right now - WE WANT OUR COUNTRY BACK.




* I'm still looking for a quality in that one and will post if I ever find one.

[Starpass]

46. The KEY is the current supporters of other candidates

That's why I think you are on to something. Sorry, but supporters of Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt and Graham and good share of those for Edwards, are NOT going to flock to Dean if/when these guys begin to drop out of the race. The connection is just not there. They will gravitate to someone they feel is electable and who they feel is more of a 'statesman' not a chest pounder. If they liked the "swagger" of Dean they would already be Deanies. I can see Dennis' people going to Dean. I don't think Sharpton/MB supporters would go to Dean---doesn't connect to Blacks. So, it's far more than just who Dean gets to vote for him in the first few primaries. As these other supporters shift from any candidate who drops out, a tremendous number of them are NOT going Dean. But Clark would be an attraction for them (ask the Union boys, for example).

[mdmc]

49. Clark for AK Gov.

Clark for CA Gov.

[tom_paine]

50. Weellll, well a Fair and Balanced post from Mr. Eyeball

Hello, fellow democrats

LOL

The professionals are here. They are here in force. If you look to the roots of divisive, counterproductive posts, there are a lot of folks like our "fellow Democrat" Mr. Eyeball.

www.technomania.com

[StandWatie]

51. kneel before Zod!!

[blm]

53. I thought you were strong on NOT making assumptions

about who the nominee will be, and that many were being premature here. Did I get that wrong?

[uptohere]

54. I'm glad you care but a word of advice... decaf

your giddy caffine driven delight had addled your brain a bit.

[JVS]

55. Maybe

maybe not.

[jonnyblitz]

56. just one more of many totally wacked out posts on DU today...

what in hell are all u people smoking today?!?! GEEZUZ FUCKING CHRIST!!!! :puke:

[sexybomber]

57. I can live with that.

If Clark gets the nomination, I'll vote for him next year and I'll be happy when he wins.

If Dean gets the nomination, I'll vote for him next year and I'll be happy when he wins.

It's a win-win situation when the two candidates you like are the front-runners :-)

[Emboldened Chimp]

58. I hate to agree about Clark hurting Kerry

but it's true: Kerry's campaign is toast. I don't know what it is, but he's definitely reeling. I saw his speech at the Steak Fry, and though I liked what he said, he just didn't have any life to him. He tried to force some zap into his delivery, but it came off as just that: forced. With Clark in the mix, I think Kerry will take a further hit in the polls. Added to the mix is all the infighting in his ranks. Sadly, I believe his campaign will be finished by December. He won't make the primaries.

[blm]

61. The media focus on Clark's service HELPS Kerry in the long run.

And I guess not many are noticing that both Clark and Kerry are getting endorsements from Friends of Bill and Hill.

[ComerPerro]

59. So what you are saying is that Bush will lose in 2004

Thats fine with me.