Hurricane Update: DC/ MD

[displacedtexan]

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003

...HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL POTOMAC
AND MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT INLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT AND ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

THIS TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND
INDEPENDENT CITIES...

IN MARYLAND...
BALTIMORE CITY...CALVERT...ST MARYS...ANNE ARUNDEL...BALTIMORE
...CHARLES...HARFORD AND PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES.

THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.

AND IN VIRGINIA...
ARLINGTON...FAIRFAX...PRINCE WILLIAM...STAFFORD...AND KING GEORGE
COUNTIES INCLUDING THE INDEPENDENT CITIES OF ALEXANDRIA...FALLS
CHURCH...FAIRFAX CITY...MANASSAS...AND MANASSAS PARK.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH
NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB OR 28.20
INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES ISABEL A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE.

...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS LOCATED IN AND NEAR THE POSTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HIGH WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING. PEOPLE INLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING.

...RAINFALL AND INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON AREAS...OVER THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND ACROSS MARYLAND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE PIEDMONT AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OR MORE. THIS WOULD CAUSE SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR
FLOODING OF SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS.

...STORM SURGE...WAVES AND TIDAL FLOODING...
THE THREAT OF STORM SURGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TIDAL
SURGES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SURGE WOULD BE ON TOP OF
THE NORMAL TIDE AND THEN WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF
THAT. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC IN CHARLES AND ST
MARYS COUNTIES A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC COULD SEE SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

...HIGH TIDES...
WASHINGTON DC 2:33 PM THU 2:42 AM FRI 3:23 PM FRI
BALTIMORE HARBOR 12:14 PM THU 2:07 AM FRI 1:18 PM FRI
THOMAS POINT LIGHT 12:05 AM FRI 11:15 AM FRI

[Bandit]

1. The Brave Commander bunnypants better get hoppin his way to safety

Maybe Nebraska would be a good spot for him for a few days until the terrorist storm has passed. Then he can come back bullhorn in hand and tell America how brave he was and how we will kick ol Isabell's ass.

[Zero Gravitas]

8. Bush is Letting the Hurricane Happen

ON PURPOSE!

[Terwilliger]

2. I think he's hiding something!

Bush directed the hurricane!

[On the Road]

3. Yes, But Look at This Chart from NOAA

Makes it look like isabel is likely to weaken:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303T+GIF/172048T.gif

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. It's not just the wind but the "water, water everywhere" rain and flooding

when half the Virgina DC suburbs go floating down the Potomac don't come crying (a river) to me.

[hatrack]

5. Agree - Floyd was "only" a Category 2 hurricane

And what it did to North Carolina was not funny.

It does make me wonder what another massive flood of filth will do to North Carolina's regulation of gigantic hog lots and their waste pits. As I remember, not much happened after the great floods of four years ago.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

6. Probabilities = gambling....

...let's see what happens to Isabel when she crosses the Gulf Stream.

[althecat]

7. Isabel is strengthening... but there is a debate about how much...

"IF FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS WERE ALL WE HAD...ISABEL WOULD BE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND A NUMBER OF SPOTS OF WINDS OF 110-120 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF 100-105 KT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS DROPSONDE PROFILES IN THE HIGH WIND REGIONS OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW A CONSISTENT AND UNUSUALLY STEEP FALL-OFF OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE HURRICANE CORE. BASED ON THESE PROFILES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME FAVORABLE...AS WAS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IN FACT THE CIRCULATION ALOFT IS STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER... THERMODYANAMIC FACTORS ARE LIMITING THE ABILITY OF ISABEL TO COMPLETELY RESPOND TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT SHOULD THERE BE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ISABEL COULD QUICKLY REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS. "

For more including new GFS rainfall forecasts...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0309/S00163.htm

[Insider]

9. Harford is ready

as long as the cable stays up, we're good.

[fob]

10. Yikes! Pat Robertson was praying for it to turn away so his God

sent it to W*!