My View on the Primary Field

[wrkclskid]

Please Note: I have yet to pick a candidate, and while their are a few I like more than others the point of this thread is to share my view on the political situation as it currently stands. Clark's entrance into the race looks like it will throw a kink into the process and many of the candidates are really starting to pick up their voter outreach tactics. I forsee quite a bloody battle up coming and here is what I think our about our ten candidates so far. As always, being that I am quite an amateur (though I have a few contacts in several of the campaigns,) I welcome all ur insights and criticisms.

Howard Dean- Dean is a masterful politician who is running a campaign more akin to Jimmy Carter than the incredibly stale comparison to McGovern we have had to deal with. He has managed to attarct a band of devoted followers (many of whom are duer's) who are willing to almost walk over hot coals for him. He is a bit inconsistent at times and his record has Governor is not what many Liberals would like, but he has managed to gloss over this with his sheer politcal skill and striaght style. He may be geniine, he may be a cold calculating politician, but he may be what we need to knock Bush off. However, he has the most to lose right now as many of the more moderate Dems start paying attention. 40% of Dems still support the war. Also, several of the other campaign have gotten some nasty info about how he handled the Civil Unions Bill as Governor. Apparentyl it invovled him signing it in the middle of the night behind closed doors or something. Watch to see if this is "leaked" any time soon

Clark- Who knows? Just entered the Race but already a lot is known about him, if he really is the Clinton's pick then he has quite the political advisor. What needs to be seen is how well he is at giving stump speeches, which generally require more emotion then his other speeches. Also, needs to be seen how well he can connect with early primary voters on a face-to-face level. Wheter he is a diamond or a dudd he will play a hue roll in how this race turns out.

Kerry- Dropping and Dropping fast. I like him but he better get it in gear if wants to stay in this thing. Look for him to pump some major money into NH soon. But his biggest problem is his supposuvie aloofness (several NH voters I talked to saturday who met him said he seemd like "an asshole.") and his percieved inabaility to be precise with his stances. However, I am sure with increased canvassing he may be able to make a run.

Gephardt- I would def. not count Gep out. He is good at connecting with voters on a face to face level and is pretty much an economic populist. He talks about issues, such as health care and pensions, that are the "kitchen table" issues most Americans worry about. This economic populism is what attarcts many voters to the Dem party. Also, Unions have quite the get-out the vote reosurces and u can expect they will be in full swing for him (those Unions that have choosen to endorse him that is.) Needs Iowa. Look for him to start pumpiing mroe cahs in.

Edwards- I would look for him to make a push. Now that it is past labor day I imagine he will step up his canvassing efforts and play up his small town roots. His ideas closely resembel Clinton's, especially his mixing governmment help with personal responsibility. He is well spken, good looking and may easily be able to creep up in the polls. Needs to Win SC though to have any prayer.

Lieberman- I can tell u first hand his staff is delusional, they are going after independent voters in NH so far. They seem to think the best thing to do is attack Dean, not understanding that this increases Dean's standing amongst many voters. Lieberman's campaign plan revoles around winning SC, getting soem good press for his "surprise" victory and then winning several of the more conservative states on super tuesday, and playing up the press as a "comeback victory." Just don't thnk he has the fire to pull this off.

Graham- Where is he? He seems like a nice guy but he can't get any press. Look for him to try and make a mjor move or two now that labor day has come and gone but if that fails, well maybe he will start lobbying for VP.

Kucinish- He has my nomination for greatest human being, but as far as President, I see it going nowhere. Hope he keeps his Congressional Seat thoguh he is a great progressive vote.

CMB- Unfortuantely for her her performance in the Debate in New Mexico (which I thoguht was terrific) and the NOW endorsement have not seemed to add much support to her campaign. I'm not sure wshe has the funds to do much else to be honest. But strnager things have happened.

Sharpton- Well he has one weapon, his tongue, we will see how he uses it. He may not have a prayer, but he can sure make and break someone else's campaign with one well toned line of prose.

[JasonBerry]

1. Interesting......

However, I question the Dean/Carter comparison. Nobody in the country-at-large knew who Jimmy Carter was until he won Iowa. It was a HUGE surprise. For Dean, he has high expectations to meet.

I don't support him in the primary, but Edwards could be the Carter of the race. He's the one to watch for a better than expected showing in Iowa. The whole money factor hasn't weighed in yet - and it will be huge. Edwards has a LOT of it still in the bank. That means a lot of money for paid media/organization in Iowa. That's the direction I would look if I were watching somebody to pull a Carter.

Good analysis of the field though! Always fun to see what people are thinking when it comes to the nuts 'n bolts of the politics.

[wrkclskid]

3. Thanks

Allow me to clarify my comparison of Dean to Carter.

You are right about Carter being a surprise at the primary and Dean being a front runner. The compariosn I see is that both are former governors who in one sense or another are running against Washington. Carter did this to, when he was Governor in 74 he called all the losers the night of the Congressional elections cause he knew they would apreciate it and come to work for him cuase they felt shut out. Carter also ran aginst the party establishment that was associated with the corrupt Washington being portrayed after the Watergate scandal and Vietnam. Dean has attarcted many cynical voters throguh the internet who are only now getting involved in politics and is running against the "Democratis establishmnt" which is seen as weak willed in it's opposition to Bush. That is where I see a comparion. Though u make a valid point.

[Eloriel]

5. Carter's distinguishing feature was NOT that he came from

nowhere. It was that he came from apparent "nowhere" because he worked tirelessly at grassroots organizing for a year or more before the primary. I don't see Edwards doing that.

Eloriel

[JasonBerry]

9. Fair enough

I was thinking end-result converted to today's reality of media and organization needing money. You're lloking at it from process and on that score - you're absolutely right.

[ComerPerro]

2. Good, thoughtful analysis

Well done. If you don't pick someone before the priamary, thats fine. All I care is that you leave yourself open enough to get behind whoever gets the nomination.

[wrkclskid]

4. That's a definite

Don't worry. Picking someone in the primary may be pointless for me, in CT we have primaries the second to last week. Though I may try and go up to NH for a nominee if I decide I like them.

[eileen from OH]

6. Re: Dean & the signing of the civil unions bill

this won't have to be "leaked" as it's common knowledge and Dean's explanation is pretty straightforward. This was, understandably, a VERY controversial bill and Dean even wore a bullet-proof vest because of it. He felt that because of the high emotions involved that it was rubbing salt in wounds to have a public, celebratory signing which would have only inflamed the anti-gay forces. His goal was to have it become law, because it was the right thing to do, and move on to acceptance, rather than throw a party over it. To me the fact that he signed it is the important thing. It was a huge political risk

eileen from ohio

[wrkclskid]

7. Actually

He intially indicated he would not sign in and then did it under court order. If u don't beleive me, I can have u talk with several friedns from Vermont who will tell u exactly that.

[quinnox]

8. One quibble

Kerry's campaign has gained some momentum after his announcement, after some missteps earlier in the summer. Feinstein recently endorsed him, and a new poll shows him tightening the race in New Hampshire with Dean.
I think the rumors of the death of Kerry's campaign have been greatly exaggerated, to borrow a clever quote.

[fabius]

10. I'M PROUD OF 'EM ALL.

GO DEMS!
:dem:

GO DEAN!

GO KUCINICH! (for my sister)

GO CLARK! (for my Mom).