Dear Mr. Greely,
I read with interest your article "Big Lie on Iraq Comes Full Circle." I think in trying to determine a motive for the lie, it is likely to be more than just because, "Iraq was there."
Are you aware that some energy industry experts have been ringing alarm bells that world oil production is about to peak ) and then go into decline? (Opinions vary from production being at peak right now to peak occurring within the next 10 to 15 years). Once peak oil has occurred, we won't wake the next day and find there is no more oil, but it will mean that we will need to spend ever increasing amounts of money, effort and energy to recover ever decreasing amounts of oil. One of these energy industry experts concerned about Peak Oil and its economic consequences is Matthew Simmons an energy investment banker and member of Dick Cheney's 2001 energy task force. Here's what he had to say in a recent address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) meeting at the French Petroleum Institute May 2003.
>>...Most serious scientists worry that the world will peak in oil supply. But most assume that this day of reckoning is still years away. Many also assume that non-conventional oil will carry us through several additional decades. They were right to ring the alarm bell. But they too might also be too optimistic. Non-conventional oil unfortunately is too non-conventional. Light oil is easy to produce and convert into usable energy. Heavy oil is hard to produce and extremely energy intensive and very hard to grow rapidly. It turns out the United States of America has nine fields left that still produce over 100,000 barrels a day. And three of the nine have turned out to be located in California and on average are 103 years old. The reason these fields are still there is that they're very heavy oil. And heavy oil can last forever but it's very hard to get out of the ground. And it takes a remarkable amount of energy to convert heavy oil into usable energy.
Five years ago I barely had thought about the question of, "What does peaking mean and when might it occur?" I was intending at the time though to study the concept of depletion and the phenomenon that field after field was tending to peak fast and decline at rates that were unheard of before. The uh, uh, I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating.<<http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/061203_simmons.htmlAnother proponent of the theory that world oil production is shortly about to peak, is retired oil company executive, energy consultant and geologist Colin Campbell PhD. Here's what Dr. Campbell had to say in an Oct 2002 interview on whether or not alternative energy sources or non-conventional oil from sources such as tar sands could replace our current and projected demand for oil.
>>Campbell: Of course there is a range of alternatives from wind, sun, tide, nuclear, etc. but today they contribute only a very small percentage, and do not come close to matching the oil of the past in terms of cost or convenience. No doubt production from tar sands and heavy oils can be stepped up in the future but it is painfully slow and expensive, carrying also environmental costs. It will help ameliorate the decline but has minimal impact on peak. The simple solution is to use less. We are extremely wasteful energy users. But it involves a fundamental change of attitude and the rejection of classical economic principles, which were built on endless growth in a world of limitless resources. Those days are over, exacerbated by the soaring population, itself now set to decline partly from energy shortage.<<http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.htmlFor a brief, non-technical synopsis of the Peak Oil theory and its consequences, I'd recommend the above interview with Colin Campbell. For further information, please see the following links:
Lecture by Dr. Colin Campbell at University of Clausthal, Germany (Real Player video)
http://www.rz.tu-clausthal.de/realvideo/event/peak-oil.ramLecture notes for above Campbell presentation:
http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.htmlLecture by Julian Darley "US Natural Gas: When Crunch Becomes Crisis" presented June 17, 2003 to the enter for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC (Requires Real Player)
http://ram.postcarbon.org/RAM/2003/06/JulianDarley.DC-CSIS.NatGasCrisis.2003-06-17.P1.ramDiscussing oil depletion, natural gas, gov't reaction and ramifications an interview with Dr, Colin Campbell
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/COLIN.CAMPBELL/Why Hydrogen is No Solution - Scientific Answers to Marketing Hype, Deception and Wishful Thinking
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/081803_hydrogen_answers.htmlwww.postcarbon.org
www.hubbertpeak.com
Regards
xxxx
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