Major Losses of Up to $250 B Projected for Earthquakes on Puente Hill

[The Straight Story]

Major Losses of Up to $250 Billion Projected for Earthquakes on Puente Hills Fault Under Los Angeles

nfrequent but Deadly Earthquakes Pose Hazard, Show Need for Preparedness

** Additional media resources are available online at http://www.scec.org/puentehills **

Potential earthquakes on the Puente Hills fault beneath the Los Angeles area could result in 3,000 to 18,000 fatalities, 142,000 to 735,000 displaced households, and more than $250 billion in total damages, according to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) research.

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is a consortium funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the USGS. SCEC involves over 400 scientists at more than 50 research institutions, and is headquartered at the University of Southern California (USC).

The new research results, published in the May 2005 issue of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute´s Earthquake Spectra, were based on shaking scenarios created using newly available software for seismic hazard analysis developed by SCEC and the USGS, coupled with HAZUS loss-estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The Puente Hills fault was discovered in 1999. In 2003, a study led by SCEC researchers at USC found that the fault had ruptured at least four times in the last 11,000 years, with magnitudes ranging from 7.2 to 7.5. To determine probable losses from such earthquakes on the Puente Hills fault, the authors of the new study created 18 different scenarios depicting different possible shaking levels throughout the region. The authors noted that it is vital to understand that the loss scenarios themselves are somewhat uncertain because of the many variables involved in predicting ground shaking, including whether the full fault ruptures or just part of it. Also, the formal quantification of loss estimates is still a challenging and imprecise science, even using the best available models and scientific data.

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=709