Clark in race assures no candidate will get majority at convention...

[kentuck]

General Clark is popular enough to win a few states and win a good portion of the votes at Democratic Convention. Dick Gephardt will have his share of "super" delegates. Of course, Howard Dean will win his share of the states, as will John Kerry. Edwards may even win a couple of states. But none will get a majority with General Clark in the race. Do we go to the convention with 4 or 5 candidates holding their share of delegates? What happens then?

[Sagan]

1. Ah ha! I was wondering when someone would bring this up..

I have been thinking about this myself lately. The convention could be very interesting, if none of the candidates establishes themselves as a commanding force by Super Tuesday.

I think California will be vitally important, of course.

Looks like we might have an old-style wheeling and dealing convention, which is not all bad.

[quinnox]

2. I wonder

I don't know how this works, but I know Gephardt has a bunch of congressional endorsements. Maybe that would put Gephardt over the top in such a scenario.

[Sagan]

3. yep, that's one possibility...

I think Gephardt has a strong chance to capture quite a few delegates in the mid-West. The only weaknesses I can see in his campaign so far is that he will of course be viewed as an "insider" and that he seems to be a lot of folk's second choice.

Other than that, I think he's done a good job getting endorsements. I've been surprised.

[Gman]

4. Super delegates are apportioned according to

how the state delegation breaks down. Super delegates do not just go with their preference regardless of the state's breakdown as the statement about Gephardt implies. If Gephardt has 25% of all the delegates in a state's delegation, then he gets 25% of the super delegates from that state.

[kentuck]

6. I was under impression "super" delegates were members of Congress

that go to the convention. Is tht not correct?

[Pepperbelly]

5. Okay ... what is needed is an analysis of what will happen ...

Of course, everything is speculation at this point.

With that said, I think that the first place to start is with the primaries. They can be found here:

http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/dem_sched04.htm

I have been having a difficult time finding out the numbers of delegates that will be at the convention, how many will be allocated via primary, and how many "superdelegates" there will be.

Anyone else know this?

[TruthIsAll]

7. What happens? GORE happens.

.

[PurityOfEssence]

8. This does lots of interesting things

It will increase the pressure right now to hit the ground running, and it may keep the question alive and critical well past where we thought the point of decision would be. These are good--if strident--possibilities.

If it's perceived that the party hacks are in a smoky back room co-opting the will of the people, it could be a real body blow to the party; if it's a free-for-all, it could bring us all together, even if it causes some bitterness.

In all fairness, though, this has been a real possibility for quite awhile now, even before Clark's entry. Even with momentum behind one candidate, that assures nothing.

[RichV]

9. I kinda like

the idea of the Dem race still being unfinished come convention-time. Just imagine the national interest and buzz it would generate. As long as it didn't get nasty, it could be good in that it dominate the news for a while. I imagine the GOP convention will be newsworthy too, but probably as much for the million people in the streets of NYC protesting (peacefully, I hope) as for what's going on inside.

[oasis]

13. Yes, the convention won't be reduced to just a Democratic infomercial.

[uptohere]

10. CATFIGHT !

The obvious answer is Smokin' Joe Lieberman mysteriously garners the delegates of the others and rides out to do battle on a shining white horse !

No wait...

Hillary says OK after all when the entire convention turns into a blubbering mass of goo and they put that Fleetwood MAc song on the PA.

No wait...

Al comes on to accept the command performance but everyone mistakes him for an ent and Rev Al seizes the day by just walking up to the mic and accepting the nomination while the cameras are rolling and before anyone can stop it.

No wait...

A pack of mercinaries working for Clark storm the convention and a bloodless coup puts Clark in the catbird seat.

No wait...

Arnold, realizing he's actually a democrat comes up on stage, beats the snot out of the others and claims the nomination.

No wait...

Bill Gates has the boys in R&D rig the computers making him the delagate winner and accepts the nomination before a stunned and silent crowd. He announces WinVote2004 r1.0 to be error free and donates his own voting systems to every jurisdiction in the country. Its only on election day that people notice that there is only one option for prez, James T Kirk (William Shattner) ! Seems Bill is a secret trekkie. Leonard Nimoy to reprize his role as Vice President Spock.

OK I'm out of ideas...

[zeemike]

11. Shades of 1968

But then of course the “lone assassin” eliminated the populist candate RFK.
But in the end they chouse a Nixon Light and we all know what happened.

[VolcanoJen]

14. I'd like to see "Shades of '68" at the Republican Convention.

Anyone else think there's a real chance of a major, days-long protest outside of the Repub convention, given that it's in New York and it timed to coincide with the 9/11 anniversary?

The whole world is watching...

[Romberry]

12. Sorry but that is unknowable at this point

Clark hasn't even really started to campaign. My bet is that when he does, we wins no states at all.