http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_2781432-snip-
The long-term solution is to invest many billions of dollars and a huge amount of political capital in persuading peasant families throughout China and Southeast Asia to change the way they raise their poultry. The urgent short-term task is to develop a way of mass-producing influenza vaccine far faster than is now possible.
It's urgent because "the world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic," as Dr. Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of the World Health Organization, told an emergency conference on avian flu held in Vietnam two months ago.
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The virus has now appeared in wild birds which can carry the virus far beyond its original reservoir in domestic chickens in southern China and Southeast Asia. In late May China closed all its nature parks after 178 migratory geese were found dead from the virus in Qinghai province in the northwest. The most recent outbreak has so far killed 53 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. And even more ominously, the first probable case of human-to-human transmission was recorded last September in Vietnam.
The danger of a global flu pandemic that could be as bad as, or worse, than the "Spanish influenza" outbreak of 1918-19 (which killed 40 million to 50 million people, half of them young, healthy adults) comes from the fact that a strain of influenza virus that normally affects only birds can swap genes with a strain that is highly infectious between human beings. If people with the human type of influenza should also be infected with the avian type (through direct contact with infected poultry), the gene swap can easily occur - and direct human-to-human transmission becomes possible.
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