Heads Up: Hurricane No.1 For 05 - Moving Fast and Growing Stronger...

[althecat]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211225.shtml?3day?large


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105W+gif/211225W_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105I_sm2+gif/211225P_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 082347
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE
84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN
AND ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[Bemis]

1. Did the FX channel arraign for this???

Just watched "The Oil Storm" a few nights ago.

Had a hurricane hit Louisiana in almost the same location
which crippled the oil industry and created a panic in the
US.

[CatholicEdHead]

2. Not a hurricane

and the forecast shows it probably will not reach hurricane strength.

[ScreamingMeemie]

3. I already thought there was one...at least they said so on the news

a couple of weeks ago. :shrug:

[ovidsen]

6. That was a Pacific hurricane

and it broke apart over Central America.

This storm is so weak it hasn't even earned a name yet, and will probably just be a clump of thunderstorms when/if it hits land.

But you never really know. Stay tuned. :popcorn:

[jobycom]

8. Hurricane Adrienne (not sure the spelling)

It hit Central America.

[Maiden England]

4. Thanks for posting!

Downside to not watching the news, I have to rely on people like you posting TD warnings.
Joy of joys, its a coming my way too.

[Pithy Cherub]

5. That storm is straight through the Gulf's warm water

and that usually makes storms stronger. Hopefully, because the Gulf has not fully warmed up yet this will help it not reach hurricane status... :(

[democrat in Tallahassee]

7. F U C K

[Rowdyboy]

10. Yeah, me too....Its headed right for New Orleans and central Mississippi

Could get nasty for us in the deep south. F U C K indeed...

Hell, I've got tree cutters coming Monday after weeks of waiting but I guess that'll be out if we have torrential rains this weekend.

[HeeBGBz]

20. I'm moving to the MS Gulf Coast in 3 weeks

No hurricanes til I get there. Those were supposed to be the rules.

[jobycom]

9. Cool. It's aimed right at my parent's house.

It's not a hurricane, though. It has to be a tropical storm to even get a name.

[Rowdyboy]

12. Yeah, Joby, but it has a couple of days in the gulf to gain strength....

Too early in the season for this shit.

Best luck to your parents!

[jobycom]

16. They usually peter out this early on

Most of these depressions just wander around and fade away, kind of like our hopes to defeat Bush.

[althecat]

19. According to most recent computer modelling is slowing down

And so you may be right it may peter out before heading ashore. I have been having a look at the rainfall modelling on this one and it seems to be mainly expected to the East of the center of the storm (if it turns into a storm) so it looks as though a fair bit rain can be expected throughout Florida.

[Radio_Lady]

17. Season starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th --

It's not too early, but I don't know the data on hurricanes that develop in June.

Lived in Florida for 28 years and don't want any more of that kind of pain. Waiting for a 9.0 earthquake, 'though, here in Oregon and/or Washington. It's bound to be a killer WHEN it occurs (not IF). But that could be in 5 minutes or 500 years.

The radio station is on filled land -- down by the Willamette River -- which will liquefy if it hits there. We have a home at 500 feet elevation about 16 miles to the west, with "low" chance of damage. Nevertheless, when we moved here seven years ago and built a new house, I told my husband I wanted to take out earthquake insurance. That's what we did!

You pays your money and you takes your chances.

[paineinthearse]

11. If it causes any property dammage, it will be Clinton's fault.

[newswolf56]

13. Thanks for posting this, especially because...

...you can't get these graphics (or any other graphics of equal quality) on the National Weather Service website, at least not in my region, the Pacific Northwest. (Have you some sort of mariner's special access?) Whatever, please keep posting this material throughout the hurricane season. Thanks again.

[althecat]

18. These graphics from National Hurricane Center (+ another good link)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Which is where all the other forecasters get their info...

The other really cool site is

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Which has some especially cool tracking maps including these ones (below) which show the various supercomputer model predictions...Click on "Computer Models" at the link above...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200501_model.html

[Catherine Vincent]

14. This storm better not harm SwampRat!

Or else! And the other DUers in it's path. :-)

[bamademo]

22. It Better Not Hit Alabama's Gulf Coast...

...still rebuilding. Ivan got the FloraBama club last year.

[KoKo]

15. Thanks for "heads up." Those of us who live in hurricane paths are braced

for another bad season...so getting the info here (for those of us who tune out media) is a good first alert.

Some of our "mundane astrologers" :hide: (for those of you throwing brick bats) have said there was a "wind/water" event for late June....

So...I've been worrying. Have to go to Ga northern FLA end of month and dread it... Gotta keep one eye on forecast and one on I-95. UGH! Even though this looks like a Gulf storm there might be something else brewing for the Atlantic.

[althecat]

21. Satellite pic.. taken yesterday... nothing much to see

[Jacobin]

23. About to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm

This one bears watching to see if it strengthens into a hurricane.

Please send out good vibes to keep it from New Orleans......it can't take hurricanes.

:scared:

[salin]

24. And Ricky Santorum wants to disallow

free public access to weather information ala the publically funded National Weather Service... we should pay for the science - and then pay a private company for the information, says he.

In stories such as these - brewing possible tragedies - it is important to remember the potential effects of the little followed policy ploys - by gop for their funders.

Socialize the costs (tax payers pay for the data collection and analysis) and Privatize the profits.

[althecat]

25. Yip... it has a name now ---- Tropical Storm ARLENE

Latest advisorys follow

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105W_sm2+gif/212053W_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105I_sm2+gif/212053P_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE ALREADY AFFECTING
CUBA...SQUALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

$$

[althecat]

26. Arlene's Landfall... as predicted by NOAA GFS Model

[althecat]

29. Starting to look like a big storm from satellite now

[Skip Intro]

27. Its a tropical storm. I actually hope my area gets a little of it.

Been thru a few TS's and a big hurricane.

I don't want another hurricane, but a nice little tropical storm I really wouldn't mind. As long as no harm comes as a result, its really cool to watch the trees bend sideways, hear the wind whip around the house, turn on the flash lights and party a little.

As long as no harm comes.

I kinda hope this one takes a course that will allow me to experience a little of it.

Then again, I could just be nuts.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

28. Getting it right now here in the Keys...

Rain, wind, sloppy old mess. So much for my day off tomorrow! (actually I love it; makes everything green green green)