Latest Advisory... Arlene Intensifying Could Be Hurricane Tomorrow

[althecat]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...ARLENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT
280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

ARLENE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH
EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

RECENT DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 4 TO 8
INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ARLENE...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105I_sm2+gif/204949P_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105W5_sm2+gif/204949W_sm.gif

[althecat]

1. Satellite Pic and ealier thread

EARLIER THREAD:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=3815890&mesg_id=3815890&page=

SATELLITE PIC:

[althecat]

2. Also... FWIW... longer range NOAA supercomp models show a new storm

.. brewing just south of Cuba... according to the models it will develop into a hurricane and then cross Cuba into the bahamas and then out into Atlantic.

[althecat]

4. Here's a plot...

[SW FL Dem]

7. Here we go again :(

Where did you hear about this new storm?

[althecat]

8. I was just looking at the maps and noticed it intensifying.....

... so I tracked it through. Tis still a fair way out in terms of the model.. so it may come to nothing.

[althecat]

10. The models appear to be very unstable... in the latest GFS run

The storm intensity has dropped and its timing has advanced... there is presently a tropical wave in the vicinity of what is appearing in the computer model but it is very hard for the models to predict this kind of phenomena...

[SW FL Dem]

11. I'm sitting here in torrential rains from Arlene

None of my regular sites have any models on any other storms. What site are you using? I went to the NOAA site, but couldn't find any models or discussion on anything other than Arlene.

[althecat]

12. will pm you a link...

[LightningFlash]

3. Not shocked anymore....

There is a "real" god out there who doesn't approve of the massive evil going on in Florida, with Jeb passing laws to mandate guns, stolen 2004 election, and thousands and thousands of people out on the street.......Florida has become a cesspool of evil. :banghead: :banghead:

It's so bogged down in hate, religious intolerance, bigotry and felon purging that it barely even resembles a community anymore. May it only hit those who truly have sinned, and we not pay for this disaster ourselves..

[althecat]

5. New ARLENE Advisory... Hurricane Warning Issued For Alabama & Panhandle

Note in this graphic the NHCC is now predicting it will reach Cat 1 before landfall.. this is first time this has happened.

Last year the first named storm ALEX didn't occur till July 31.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0105I_sm2+gif/030608P_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110303
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...ARLENE SLOWS A LITTLE AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY
TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT
245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION...ALONG WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...THE APPALACHIANS...THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.1 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[LightningFlash]

6. It's just sad, very sad and not unexpected...

Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, "states" that claimed to be taken over by the moral south.....States where there was fraud and much corruption, where there still is to this day.

I only hope it doesn't kill the innocent. I hope for that matter that the casualties are not severe for the degree of size this storm is.

[althecat]

13. A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/110838.shtml?

....

THERE SEEM TO BE TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR THE INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE FIRST IS THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPS DURING
THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...AND ARLENE MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
INTO THE STORM AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINING
TIME BEFORE LANDFALL. IF THAT HAPPENS...ARLENE MAY WELL WEAKEN
BEFORE LANDFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE
BEFORE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH POSSIBILITY IS OCCURRING.

THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE WILL NOT BECOME A
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[DoYouEverWonder]

9. From one who lives in Florida

this sucks.