Wait....so when did Kerry get a surge?

[vi5]

I keep hearing about how Shrubby is losing to Clark and dead even with Kerry in polls. Last I had heard Kerry was 3rd or 4th behind Dean and Leiberman (mostly based on Leiberman's still lingering name recognition.

So what happened that he's now second to Wes Clark? Did Clark's candidacy help him rather than the conventional wisdom of it hurting him?

[HPLeft]

1. Good Question

I'm not clear what polls 4 months in advance of the first primaries tell us about how things will ultimately break. But Kerry has apparently cut the lead in Iowa to within 10 points, and is cutting the lead in New Hampshire as well.

It's possible that the Commander-in-Chief factor is helping Kerry, since the support for Clark is clearly due to his status as a former 4-Star General. It's quite sensible that the electorate would be concerned about picking the right person to win the War on Terror, and to make the most sensible decision in regard to extricating the US from Iraq and Afghanistan. The American people will clearly be paying a lot of attention to that factor in a general election, and I'd argue that it will be the deciding factor. As bad as Dubya has been as President, if we run a candidate who can be portrayed as soft, we're likely to get our butts handed to us in 2004. And that would be very bad for this country.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. That's the national (name recognition) poll

Dean is leading in (some)Iowa and NH polls. And in (some) democratic nominee polls. But as evidenced by yesterday's poll, Kerry's national weight and reputation is coming through.

And yes, Clark can only help Kerry, because it circulates and increases awareness of military credentials- an extremely important asset post 9/11.

[seventhson]

3. Clark is scavenging the Dean centrists

who think Kerry is a dipshit.
They would not support Kerry but were luke warm to Dean and voting for him in earlier polls.

So Clark gives Kerry a boost by stealing the folks more likely to go Dean and hence levelling the )polling/electoral)playing field for Kerry whose supporters stay committed out of ostrichness and filiality.

Hence - we ALL lose.

Dean/Edwards in 2004!!!!

[WilliamPitt]

4. Been saying for a while now

that Clark would help Kerry.

[seventhson]

7. Me Too. For once we agree. AAAARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!!!

Actually, Will, you and I agree on many things and your late comments on Dean were actually quite uplifting to me.

Your support of Kerry had really disturbed me and made me not trust you but HELL ANYBODY supporting the skull boy makes me crazy.

So this Clark entry is also very scary and I too was saying this from day one.

They must have really done some consumer testing on this one.

I MUST say this: Shrub has been such an unmitigated disaster that even I have to say that Kerry and/or Clark etc would HAVE to be better.

Like with Reagan -- I think sometimes it is better for a tool to be a tool sometimes rather than a known criminal: Reagan was the BFEE tool and hence did not always do exactly what they wanted. Bush I on the other hand was a coldblooded and calculated intelligence and black operative master. These kinds of guys are seriously dangerous as there is no depth that they will not sink to manipulate things.

Neither Kerry nor Clark have the kind of evil genius/madman/fool psychosis that the Bushes apparently have genetically kind of like doctor evil or a James Bond baddie like a waspy Dr. No or Goldfinger.

They are pawns, IMHO, in the global fascism game and as such they are not only expendable to the Bushies but also they MAY actually resist some of their evil incantations and concatenations. I can only pray that is so. I could see either of them growing INTO a Bond like baddie, though, if they are given the chance to hold the reins.

But I actually will FIGHT for someone like DEAN who seems to have almost NONE of the toolishness or toadiness of a Clark or a Kerry. He is a straight shooter pretty much and an independent thinker who I believe can save America from the oozing pus that it has become under the Bushes.


I hope the DEAN folks will start fighting back because with Clark in the race their boy is starting to list to the portside.

Dean may have been a huge solid ship but, like the titanic, he seems to have run into the Clark iceberg.

Now == are there enough lifeboats to save the crew and the passengers and hence, to save America?

I am making my first contribution to Dean this week. I urge you all to do the same.

It will be my first political $$$ contribution ever. I have worked on campaigns and even worked on Capitol Hill - but I never felt strong enough that my money would make any difference.

With DEAN I believe it will.

[stickdog]

5. surge vs. whom?

apples & oranges

[Catch22Dem]

6. Gallup and USAToday

Among Dems, Clark gets 22%, Dean 14%, Kerry about 12%.

Among likely voters, Clark and Kerry beat Bush. Dean is in a statistical tie with Bush, and Leiberman is just behind them. I wish Edwards were doing better, but we've still got plenty of time.

[Celebrandil]

8. Don't believe in those numbers

If you compare those numbers to earlier ones, it seems that Gephardt and Lieberman have lost more to Clark, than what Kerry and Dean has. I believe you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously. Some people would happily support more than one candidate, but in a poll like that, they are more likely to pick a candidate that has recently been mensioned a lot in the press. So, things have to stabilize a bit before you are able to draw any real conclusions.

/ Marten Bjorkman (Sweden)