Scott Ritter warns of coming war in Iran, again.

[Postman]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7896BBD4-28AB-48BA-A949-2096A02F864D.htm

snip:
"Liberation" and the spread of "democracy" have become none-too-subtle code words within the neo-conservative cabal that formulates and executes American foreign policy today for militarism and war.


What will be the excuse for war in Iran?

Another terrorist attack on innocent Americans being allowed to happen to blame Iran with?

God I hate these animals.

[Redstone]

1. This is one I'm actually not too worried about.

The US military is so overextended and disafffected, that I think if they are ordered to invade Iran, there's a real possibility (especially in the National Guard) of a mutiny.

Nothng I can put my finger on and present as fact, but I think our military is right on the raggedy edge right now.

Redstone

[CrispyQ]

2. I don't understand how that can be . . .

with the support of all those yellow ribbons. :sarcasm:

[Redstone]

8. Good point. You'd think that knowing about all those

yellow ribbons would MORE than make up for the heat, boredom, and mortal danger, and have the boys & girsl in uniform strolling down the streets of Falluja whistling a jaunty tune instead of complaining, wouldn't you?

Why do you suppose they have America so much? (:sarcasm: as well.)

Redstone

[Singular73]

3. They WANT to invade Iran

But they wont do it.

[shraby]

4. What basis do you have for that statement?

These people are nuts.

[Singular73]

10. Heh, they have no support.

You need public support to fight a war. Not that they care about the public's opinion, but SOME people DO have to run for re-election.

There will be no war in Iran, as much as they want one.

They don't have the political capital.

[teryang]

5. Thought provoking

The bombings and border incidents are suggestive. The stratergy depicted is consistent with neo-con "great game" theories of strategy advanced by advocates of air power and air logistics. I seriously doubt that divisional sized forces would be deployed in Azer., it would be insanity from a strategic point of view. The goal is to topple Iran with minimal expenditures. The distances involved are still huge. Caspian waterfront doesn't count as "blue water" as a land locked sea. Invasions conducted without blue water navy support are tenative and ultimately untenable. I'm surprised that a former Marine officer would lose sight of this or the terrible straits our ground forces are in.

Neo con strategic theory involves a combination of a strategy of tension (imported by nazi strategists in early CIA days), a nostaglic romantic notion of 19th Century (British) imperialism, combined with a mistaken notion that air logistics and minimal ground forces can achieve control of an area politically for an indefinite period.

Witness the toppling of Afghanistan. The problem is that Afghanistan was only penetrated through Pakistan which has a conventional surface infrastructure used to support the air bases to project power into Afghanistan. Even so the American forces in Afghanistan are so negatively leveraged (very cost ineffective) and isolated. Ultimately, they are vulnerable to attack by any organized group and have not really achieved any purported security objective.

The truth is that the strategy of tension is pre-emminent. The goal is to create instability and insecurity as evidence by the use of proxy terrorist organizations which has typified American Asian strategy for over twenty years. The goal is to weaken and destroy sovereign regional powers, not democracy or anything like it.

[Bill Wade]

6. It would be hard for us to get involved with any kind of military conflict

with Iran, but what about our favorite terrorist client state, Israel?

I wonder if there is any chance they (Israel) get involved if we decide that we want to blow Iran to smithereens, but we can't possibly do it at the time being?

That could be catastrophic.

[K-W]

7. Coming War? Look at the headline of that article.

"The US war with Iran has already begun"

[Richard Steele]

9. Don't forget: these idiots are willing to use NUKES. No troops needed.

I really suspect their real plan is simply to start WWIII.

[jim3775]

11. The Azerbijan part of the story checks out.

http://www.energybulletin.net/6074.html">News Link

"USA plans to expand military presence in Azerbaijan, promises $100mil for Caspian guard


US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Azerbaijan (an Asian republic of the former USSR) on April 12th. It became Rumsfeld's second visit to the republic in four months -- that is why it can hardly be treated as a formal visit of no particular importance.

(snip)

The first reason includes the transportation of the Caspian oil and the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which is directly connected with Mr Rumsfeld's department.
Secondly, the USA is interested in establishing mobile army bases on the territory of Azerbaijan, which is stipulated in the plan to re-deploy US troops in Europe and Asia.

As for the oil pipeline is concerned, there has been a certain plan elaborated for the implementation of security measures. The USA is ready to assign not less than $ 100 mm during the coming ten years for the development of the so-called Caspian Guard (founded in the autumn of 2003). Guaranteeing security to the pipeline, which is currently undergoing the construction process, will be the prime goal of the Caspian Guard."



They are starting to guard the oil pipeline. My inner tinfoil hatter would think that the are preparing a counter-insurgency to protect the pipelines once they have started pumping Iranian oil. He would also say that a "terrorist attack" or "Iranian invasion into Iraq" would take care of Bush's low support numbers.