National exit polls and "funny math" - some impossible scenerios?

[helderheid]

I "lifted" this from the 2004 election results forum - verrrrr interesting:

IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO I:
13047 respondents: 12:22am
Kerry wins easy - even with an IMPOSSIBLE 41/39% split

VOTE2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 2% 7.0% 9.7% 0.3%
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1% 3.1% 35.5% 0.4%
Bush 41% 90% 10% 0% 36.9% 4.1% 0.0%
Other 3% 13% 65% 16% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5%
100% 47.38% 51.23% 1.21%

Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73%
(vote):
1 in 38,498,885,514


IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO II:
Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:
BUSH WINS: PURE FICTION - 43% IS EVEN MORE IMPOSSIBLE

VOTE2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 2% 7.0% 9.7% 0.3%
Gore 37% 8% 91% 1% 3.0% 33.7% 0.4%
Bush 43% 90% 10% 0% 38.7% 4.3% 0.0%
Other 3% 13% 65% 16% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5%
100% 49.02% 49.61% 1.19%



PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:
Using the calculated maximum possible weightings, Kerry wins
in a
landslide:

Kerry 63.89mm (52.24%
Bush 56.77 (46.42%)
Nader/Other 1.49 (1.22%)


VOTE2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
No 17.00% 41% 57% 2% 7.0% 9.7% 0.3%
Gore 40.24% 8% 91% 1% 3.2% 36.6% 0.4%
Bush 39.82% 90% 10% 0% 35.8% 4.0% 0.0%
Other 3.00% 13% 65% 16% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5%
100% 46.42% 52.24% 1.22%

[helderheid]

1. no takers?

I'm not a math nut - hoped someone who was might see this and have some comments...