When will Rove realize they are in political trouble?

[salin]

or will he recognize it? And will he tell W?

Public opinion is turning. Some repubs in congress are afraid for their reelections. Other longstanding repubs are offended by the extremism of this administration. There are clear potential problems now facing the WH. But do they see it? Do they still think that they can quickly manipulate the media and through the media the public? Do they realize that their own actions have led to a public a little less susceptable to said manipulation?

Personally I hope that in their arrogance they don't get it for a while longer - because they have become quite prone to self-inflicted political wounds that are starting to infect not only themselves but the GOP in Congress.

[ScreamingMeemie]

1. Probably not until he's walking the walk with the flashbulbs popping.

And even then, he'll wonder how something so "good" could have gone so "wrong". He thinks he is invincible.

[salin]

4. That is certainly the case with insulated and intellectually lazy

bush... but rove is no slacker.

But he only knows how to win by dirty tricks. When the public turns savvy and cynical (eg starts reading the tricks as they are being played) .. then what? These folks don't know how to do real politics (winning through policies that appeal).

[Boredtodeath]

2. Oh, he KNOWS now

But still believes he can deny reality.

Doncha know they create their own reality.

[salin]

8. I guess that gets at the heart of my question

to date - Rove only knows smear politics - and political calculations in place of policies.

Will he get it - as the public starts to catch on - and when more and more of the public is innoculated from manipulation due to that awareness... or worse due to disgust and alarm due to that awareness?

I honestly believe the naked power plays behind the Schaivo actions - woke a lot of folks up. And then they started looking back and revising their views of those "realities". The longer the DSMs are discussed the more the reminder to the woken up that this is a long MO... and the less able rove is to win by his usual machinations. So my question is how long it goes on before he recognizes that jig is up- and that dog has gone hunting so much that it just no longer will hunt?

Perhaps I am overly hopeful - but the signs are beginning to show that we (the public) are approaching that point ...

[Boredtodeath]

41. This is their final gasp

But, have no fear, the next move is to create a massive distraction.

Think back to the time just before 9/11. Remember the poll numbers. Remember the hiding in Crawford. Remember the Stem Cell debate. Remember we've been here before...........

and never forget how dangerous that makes them to every American citizen.

They will stop at nothing.

[salin]

45. As I state lower on this thread

I think that even in that scenario... they lose - big - unless they declare martial law and destroy our system altogether... and even in that - I think they lose. How much gets destroyed in the meanwhile- is another frightening question.

[Boredtodeath]

49. IF it happens in the US

What happens if there's a new "Iranian hostage" situation somewhere in the mideast?

Or a new Kohbar Towers?

Or a new Somalia?

[salin]

51. the first type scenario might work

the other two didn't get that much prolonged public reaction in real time. Remember the Embassy bombings ... that preceding the quick bombing attempt in Afghanistan that was quickly dismissed as wag the dog - why? Because the horror of the bombings was short lived in the public sentiment. The public yawned at the Bali bombings, the public is quiet about Darfur... Would be hard, I think, to get the right scenario that would actually rally the amount of public support - and in a way that was sustainable over time - and in a way that could nto be proven internationally as a hoax (as the international media is much more skeptical than ours).

[rodeodance]

21. I agree--that is why the venom from his mouth is so bad lately. He knows.

[jobycom]

3. He knows. Remember in 2000

when every time Bush started falling behind in the polls, he started acting more confident? Rove knows that if he acts confident, people figure he has some reason to be. So he's trying that tactic.

Also, they are gutting this nation for all it's worth. Every moment Rove can keep Cheney and Bush in office means more money BushCo and friends can steal. So even if he's doomed, he'll stall as long as he can. One more Halliburton contract, one more duffle bag of cash... it all adds up.

[jedr]

6. never deal with the message...attack the messenger.

As things get worse , the rhetoric will become more absurd.

[salin]

10. It is already absurd

Cheney made an ass of himself this week. He looked like a fool. He was spouting the old lies - but now everyone knows they are lies, and knows that HE knows that they are lies... and suddenly the fact of him saying this makes him appear to hold the public in utter contempt. He lost points, rather than gained them this past week.

[jedr]

25. I love this analogy of Rove's tactics;

It's like taking a contractor to court for shoddy work , and having him say that you deserved it because your fat and bald.

[salin]

27. lol!

and back to Cheney's absurd act this week... I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that his trip to the hospital - veiled thinly as a knee thing (but not so thinly as to be discredited immediately as really a heart thing) - is really simply about trying to garner a little bit of sympathy for the rodent to make folks forget his sinister act in the theatre of the absurd earlier this week.

[rodeodance]

31. "you deserved it because your fat and bald." ummm. you talky about

rovey?---no, i know-

[salin]

9. But how long will it take him to realize if/when

the old tricks are no longer working?

[rodeodance]

24. yes yes yes!!!!!

[Doctor Panacea]

5. Get ready

Yes, he knows they are in trouble.

Get ready for something dramatic. These people are unscrupulous. They will now do something to divert attention from their failures. Another 9/11-type attack? Some other kind of big political news? Who knows?

But they will pull some kind of stunt before the elections in 2006.

[ailsagirl]

13. I can't help agreeing. I just know they have some evil contingency

plan up their collective sleeves. And whatever it is, it
won't be pretty.
:hide:

[salin]

14. harder and harder for them to do

as the public will see it for what it is. What do you think has constrained them from attacking in Iran or Syria... they started the rhetoric (the wmds have been moved?!) within days after the initial invasion into Iraq. But to act on that is to destroy themselves - as they would lose whatever last ounce of credibility they have with the public... and their financial backers would pull as the potential chaos from that loss of confidence would potentially wreak havoc on the economy (the financiers have billions upon billions of US debt... they can not afford a tanking of the economy or worse an Argentian type implosion.)

They will try stunts - but they will be of the political type. The bullying type ala JEdgarHoover.

[ailsagirl]

19. I don't think they care about consequences...

They have acted in the most arrogant, flagrant, and wreckless
way from Day One. Absolutely no thought whatsoever about the
long-term consequences of their actions. If there is a country
they can exploit, they'll do it. They don't care one bit about
world opinion.

Sooner or later, some sort of "Day of Reckoning" will occur.

[salin]

23. sadly a lot of days of reckoning

financial among the primary ones.

But they are still working from the framework of our contemporary system. They just think that they can make it defacto dictatorship by being able to keep the facade of "democracy" under a one-party rule (ala Mexico's 70 year one-party rule.) They are so arrogant to think that they can do anything and still make this happen - but I don't think that they are ready/prepared to completely destroy the system (ala martial law to totalitarian dictatorship.) Which is about the only way I can see them benefitting from another staged attack. Any other scenario - in the end they lose. Big time.

[ailsagirl]

29. And so do we. But we've been losing steadily for 4+ years now

Sadly. But I'm hopeful that the tide may turn. It's
going to take a helluva lot of persistence, though.
These guys will not go easily or quietly.

Their tentacles are too tightly wrapped to relax
their hold anytime soon.

[salin]

32. I don't think that they realize that the wheels just fell off their cart

and there is no mechanic that can keep them on - temporarily fix, yes, but keep them on...and the longer they keep going -the more damage to the cart they inflict.

I don't see them letting up anytime soon. However I do see them inflicting damage to us all - and some big damage to themselves as well.

[ailsagirl]

34. Yes, I agree

[wakeme2008]

7. IMHO nobody REALLY tells the true to Bush

they know he just could not take the truth...

Look at the Bush First Adm. Zones... and the town hall meetings with only a selected group of people...

[salin]

16. I think you are correct - his temprament is too unstable

a meltdown wouldn't be good.

[CJCRANE]

11. I think he and the neocons are into

some heavy-duty hypnosis and self-hypnosis techniques. They repeat the same stuff over and over until it sinks into the public. And I bet they also repeat stuff to themselves telling themselves how brilliant they are.

[salin]

18. group think is a dangerous thing

it is what got us into Iraq. And I think they are all in such agreement that they can not see anything but how "right" and "brilliant" they are. If this is true - they are going to break apart the GOP for years to come... as they will keep pursuing awful policies and forcing GOP congress to follow... or to fight... and at somepoint to follow will mean to lose their seat - and to fight means to get attacked by rove/delay and possibly lose their seat... big potential showdowns - all on their side of the aisle.

Shall we get popcorn?

[dkofos]

12. You will know for sure,

when the next terrorist attack happens.

I don't think they can hold out much longer.

[ailsagirl]

15. There seems to be (at least) two schools of thought about this here

Some think they wouldn't DARE pull anything while others sense
something big is imminent.

[salin]

20. Does it really work for them when they control all branches of govt?

when they can't play the... it was the last guy's fault because he weakened intel and the military? don't they then lose their one last area of support that they are good on 'national security'? This loses for them a) because the public may not buy it; and b) because they would be blamed.

The only way it wins for them is if they are ready to declare martial law and put us all on lockdown - and I don't think they have the guts or the manpower to do that. I really don't think they are after a totalitarian govt - as they think that they can run it that way as an absolutist one-party "democracy".

[ailsagirl]

33. If their goal is a police state, they would incarcerate (or remove)

those who do not support them. They're building a new prison
for terrorists-- is that so different from shoving us dissenters
behind bars? Or worse?

I don't know what can be termed as realistic fear anymore.
Things are in such a muddle.

[salin]

36. There are too many of us

and we have too long of a history of freedom of speech, that I don't think that they could pull it off. They would be creating more dissenters with each arrest - the moderate the libertarians would begin to scream their heads off as well. You don't keep individual liberties under a dictatorship - be it left or right ... and those not among the radicalized religious right (who could delude themselves that this was under act of god) KNOW that. I just don't see ANY way that it could happen at this point in time.

[ailsagirl]

38. Good points-- that's encouraging.

But I hope to heaven it never, EVER happens

[salin]

42. You and me, both... this is one point

that I would not like to see tested.

[habitual]

54. Yep, no way they could possibly declare martial law.

they would need a massive amount of support from law enforcement which they would never get. impossible at this time.

[ailsagirl]

55. It would be up to FEMA to enforce martial law, I think

Can you believe we're talking about such things?? My God,
how far this country has sunk. It just enrages me.
:grr: :mad: :grr:

[kaitykaity]

17. He knows.

He came out of the shadow of the WH to slam us
because he knows.

He also knows their normal tricks aren't working.

[salin]

26. but does he know how to successfully operate

if/when the rules of the game (eg the context on the ground) have completely changed?

[gulliver]

22. I think that to Rove it's just another tight spot.

He and other Republicans are already preparing groundwork to blame Democrats for the coming loss in Iraq. I don't think it is going to fly this time, though. If you go to the doctor to get a mole removed and come out with one less arm, you're not in the mood for bullshit.

[rodeodance]

28. "starting to infect not only themselves but the GOP in Congress." Lovely

[salin]

30. that is exactly the point... new spot - but only old tricks known

when those don't work - what to do? And how long will it take for him/them to realize that the old tricks aren't working - and that they don't have the appropriate 'trick bag' to get things back on track.

[gulliver]

39. It will be interesting to see what Rove does.

He'll try to take the country with him in some way. I'm with you in that I hope Bush doesn't realize what is happening until he has completely destroyed himself and his family's "Governments 'R Us" business.

[salin]

43. the last two months have been interesting to watch

fast shifts ... I never would have predicted the past two months - before they happened. The question is whether or not they can self-correct? They will certainly keep bullying members of GOP congress to keep muscling their way - and will cause havoc with the policies that they most certainly will push through. BUT each time, I think, more of the public will be watching and disturbed... and if/when they try to mount media circuses - more of the public will notice how absurd it is... and will grow more cynical (and more immune to the manipulation.)

The big question that I can not answer is this... when we get to the other side of this period in time... will we have destroyed our democracy because of such great cynicism that ALL stop participating (sort of a post-watergate on steriods reaction) - or will we be stronger as a grass roots nation and just the GOP as a powerplayparty be destroyed?

[CityZen-X]

35. Tea with Hoover

They will sense the trouble when Rove is caught wearing a dress, having a tea party with the corpse of J.Edgar.

[salin]

37. with Mark Hanna as guest of honor.

lol

[Pithy Cherub]

40. The real sign is when the republicans turn on them en masse.

Right now it is like peeling back an onion a bit at a time. Rove thinks he just needs to hold the line and that a little spillage will be ok, but once the Warner's, McCain's, Hatch's, (who wants an appointment to SCOTUS, Hastert's, Governors and other elected Repubbies AND their big Donors declare republican fratricide acceptable, then the game is on. There has been only gripes and grumbling from the corporate business community so far - they need to withhold money to make a strong point to Red Rover.

Couple that with no news yet about Plame, and investigation about Delay, Reed et all, the republican implosion in Ohio and it is a recipe for disaster. All the ingredients are present just not yet mixed and cooked. Rove's issue is to stop erosion and then by no later than June 2006 have a republican story for "re-selection".

Next, the people turning on them is great cause for concern, but not alarm from Rove's perspective. They think the flag, pie and church will make it all good. Look for a patriotic theme coupled with 4 July and the president making more patriotic pronouncements: Patriotic duty to fight, blah, blah, blah.

[salin]

44. in my opinion, it is ONLY the people turning on them

that will force the collapse. In the end politicians are all self-serving... when they FEAR for their career - they will act accordingly. And the big monied interests - want to preserve the ability to have access to power - so a big shift in who the public supports... and a big shift to where the money goes. We are a long way from real political fear... but we are approaching political discomfort for some in congress. Will it mount enough by 2006? Probably doubtful... unless something breaks as you suggest... or unless ROveco continue to be so oblivious that they march GOP congress and DeLay over the edge of a cliff with their policies and power plays.

[Lexingtonian]

46. Oh, he certainly does

If anyone knows the polls and electorate, it's him.

But you have to understand, reality and facts have never been in their favor for these people. They're essentially a kind of cult leadership and the game for them all along has been to keep the majority of Americans that has fallen for their point of view separated and away from submission to that reality.

This is an occultic approach to the whole problem of national life and national destiny, and occultisms arise when a group (in this case conservative, generally white and Christian Americans, more male than female) senses that reality for their group is relative decline.

So if you understand Rove as a person who has largely understood this empirical situation, and amounts to the Other Side's primary analyst of it, everything he does makes sense.

He's certainly good enough with the numbers and basic psychology of the situation. Then again, anyone else could be if they really cared to. And the cards- demographics and wealth- are so stacked in his favor, in susceptible people and money and worked out doctrine, that it's a relatively easy and dumb game on his side. Problem is, his side is lazy and stupid enough that even that level of competence is always an issue.

He's a crappy theologian, though. The amount of fishing Republicans and people like him do says that they don't understand the theology of the "faith", i.e. occultism, they represent in any intellectually significant way. They've been taught a lot by the Christian Right, which is occultism and paganisms with Christian facades/faces, but it's operational and practical rather than deep understandings.

Every major political campaign Rove/Bush have done nationally- 2000, 2002, 2004- has (though they clearly don't understand it) been an emphasis on one of the three basic dogmas that occultisms break down into. They're now used up as matters to rally the faithful around- after all, they demonstrably didn't yield the magical power over facts and realities that were promised. Now that the basic tenets are exhausted, there are still one or two major derivative tenets that can be preached to rally the masses around The One True Faith. But the Magic and the Magi who promised it are not doing too well with their adherents anymore. The finger pointing for why the spells and chants and orthopraxes and efforts of willpower don't work has begun.

The One True Faith is in trouble. Rove can try, but the pressure of reality is becoming too great. Maybe he can re-evangelize the lot via the residual tenet or two believed in, but the foundation for the Belief just isn't solid, isn't there, anymore. The well is going dry.

[salin]

47. Fascinating post

you should expand it a little (explanation of the One True Faith, and the three issues exploited and now depeleted) and write an article on this. Excellent explanation, and very provocative.

[catmandu57]

48. If he doesn't know by now

then surely wednesday morning after the latest blabbering blunder by the boy idiot* will be a sign that herr rover needs to get his duffle bags full of filthy lucre to that fall back place he has planned.

When, if, it's announced that the idiot in chief* is taking a vacation, then I'll be extremely nervous.

[salin]

50. remember last spring - * was going to do six speeches to the public

explaining the plan for Iraq... and he did exactly... one. Bomb. Guessing Tues will be the same.

Btw, am I doing the mistaken identity - or did we do some exchanges per energy stuff a long, long time ago?

[catmandu57]

52. I don't know

My memory is shot, but I do remember hearing about the news comferences.

[salin]

53. not to worry

so much to keep up with watching this theiving admin that its easy to forget some along the way. I think in this case, however, it is probably my faulty memory.

[Straight Shooter]

56. Kick for a thread which makes some very interesting points.

:dem: