"Staying The Course": The Projected Cost In American Lives Over 4 Years

[DistressedAmerican]

We hear a lot about how we have to "Stay the course" in Iraq. Plenty of people crying out, "we're there so, we MUST win", etc. So, I decided to take a look at what we could predict this much lauded "course" is all about in terms of U.S. casualties.

The results of the number crunching excise were very interesting. I used this morning's latest count from http://icasualties.org/oif/ and worked out some averages per month and year.

Per month (on average over 28 months) we have lost 62 officially reported American service people in Iraq (1737 casualties/28 months). That works out to 744 per year (1737 casualties/2.3333333 years so far).

So, that brings us to "The Course". Since the Republicans were all chanting "4 More years", it seemed like that would be a good period to estimate out.

If we assume that things will pretty much go along as they have on average since the war started, here is what we can expect:

Average U.S. Casualties Per Year as of 6/25/05 744

Projected Total 6/25/06 = 2481
Projected Total 6/25/07 = 3225
Projected Total 6/25/08 = 3969
Projected Total 6/25/09 = 4713

In March of 2007, we hit an estimated 3,039 Americans killed in Iraq, thereby surpassing the number that were killed on September 11th 2001 (NOT THAT TWO WERE IN ANY WAY RELATED OUTSIDE OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S PR BS).

Additional Sad Milestones:
2000 KIA expected Nov. 2005
3000 KIA expected Mar. 2007
4000 KIA expected Jul. 2008
5000 KIA expected shortly after the "4 more years" mark

Some may argue that compared to previous conflicts, that this rate of casualties is somewhat low and they would certainly be correct with regard to something like WWII. However, compared to other conflicts in the post Vietnam era, this rate of losses is quite substantial.

I took the liberty of charting that out for folks that prefer a quickly digested visual presentation:



Feel free to share this data with anyone you know. And be sure to ask them if this really IS "The Course" that they want to "Stay On".

If they do think it is acceptable, Please hand them some enlistment papers. We are an all volunteer army you know.

They can be found at:
http://usmilitary.about.com/library/pdf/enlistment.pdf

[Goldmund]

1. "Projected Total 6/25/05 = 2481"

I think you need to add a year to that section. :)

[DistressedAmerican]

2. Oops! Fixed!

[DistressedAmerican]

3. And It Could Well Get Worse! Get Out Of Iraq NOW!

[DistressedAmerican]

9. ...

[Igel]

4. I suspect that the result would be worse

if you didn't assume the curve was linear.

But then again, exactly how much worse depends on the assumptions you make in fitting the curve.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

5. Only 4 more years? We should be so lucky.

Even if the Democrats manage to beat the Republicans in '08, they will still be faced with how to extricate us from a quagmire that will likely devolve into a full fledged civil war. Will they have the guts to "cut and run", I doubt it.

Not to mention the very unstable situations in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and even more so now, Iran.

[DistressedAmerican]

6. I HOPE For Less If We Push And Push And Push. But I FEAR More!

They are meeting all of their recruitment goals thanks to the Bush administration.

Are we? Will we ever without a draft?

[DistressedAmerican]

7. Afternoon Kick

[DistressedAmerican]

8. ...

[dxstone]

10. Kicked/NOMINATED!... and TAKE A BOW, DA!

AMAZING work, my friend... you are a force of nature...
I'll tell ya, the intelligence and bravery of so MANY posters here on DU...
How can we POSSIBLY lose against these mewling moronic flea-bitten psychotic slimeballs?
WE CAN'T!
NOT if we FIGHT!
...as you, DA, have so wisely been counseling of late:

Enough Of The Damn Learned Helplessness Already! Stop Conceding Defeat!!!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3931375

100 More Photos And Several Videos Of Abu Ghraib Torture Coming SOON!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3930907

If you haven't read these threads yet, folks, CHECK 'EM OUT!
CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE AILING DEMOCRATIC SOUL!

These psycho-sicko chicken-lickin' meta-morons may still be up at the moment... but IT WON'T BE LONG NOW!!!

In fact, I've been hearin' Jack Bruce in my head lately...

I've been waitin' so long
I've been waitin' so long
I've been waitin' so long
To be where I'm goin'
In the sunshine of your loooooooooooove....

I'm tellin' ya, people... won't be long now...
d

ps: That IS Jack Bruce, NOT Clapton, on lead vocals, ain't it?... can't find this info on the net, and I was sadly never blessed to see 'em in concert...

[DistressedAmerican]

11. Many Thanks! Bite Them Several Times A Day And They Will Fall!!!

Learned it when I was a boy from a from a great and wise satirist...


"Mr Johnathan Swift Everybody! Let's get a round of applause for Mr. Johnathan Swift!!!"

Even Lilliputions have power to subdue giants in great enough numbers and with coordinated effort!!!

Lillipution Powers Activate! Form Of An Army! Shape Of A New American Awakening!

[Ilsa]

12. "Staying the Curse" should be the response. eom

[SmokingJacket]

38. Or "Staying the Corpse"

I actually misread the title of the thread that way. (Think I'm reading too many mystery novels...)

[Endangered Specie]

13. Glad to see you did this...

:hi:

[I Have A Dream]

14. Kicked & recommended.

Thanks for your efforts, DistressedAmerican.

(And this doesn't even take into account the number of innocent civilians killed.)

[SammyWinstonJack]

15. Staying the bidness course is what bu$h** means

The bush family war profiteering crime family's MO. Who does Chimpy think he is kidding? He wanted this war for many reasons. None having to do with making the world a safer place or giving the Iraqis democracy'. He is full of shit and nothing more than a money grubbing war profiteering vengeance seeking election stealing thug.

[EVDebs]

16. Prior to going to war it was "Staying Discourse", now that we're stuck

it becomes "Staying the Course". If we'd had the REAL debate and truthful intelligence before diving into the pool headfirst, making sure that there was water in the pool first, we'd be in a much better position NOW. This would mean also reinstituting the Powell Doctrine.

BTW, Sen John McCain has said the US will remain in Iraq "probably 10 or 20 years, that's not so bad" from Bob Herbert's excellent article "Heads in the sand"
http://www.spectrumz.com/z/fair_use/2004/09_04.html

Maybe the Republicans will pick a candidate in '08 who isn't a certifiable moran. I doubt it.

[EVDebs]

17. Sen McCain: "10, 20 years in Iraq...that's not so bad"

[Swamp Rat]

18. EXCELLENT graphic!

Can you make a larger version from the original that is grayscale and printable? I want it to look clean, easy to read from a diastance, and printable, without using too much black ink/copier toner, so I can post copies at coffee houses, schools and churches. :)

[dxstone]

19. Hey, Rat!

Love the new gif!
d

[DistressedAmerican]

20. Here You Go! Jpeg and PDF (Printable). How's This Work?

And the PDF is at:

http://www.seedsofdoubt.com/distressedamerican/images/graphics/The-Course-BW.pdg

WAY TO PLAY!!!

Anyone that thinks they would make good flyers is certainly welcome to the images!!!

[DistressedAmerican]

23. Here Also The Larger Color Version For Your Or Anyone's Use.

[DistressedAmerican]

26. Kicker!

[w8liftinglady]

28. Another awesome graphic...

As a mom of a soldier,I thank you for applying your talents in this direction...you are really gifted...

[DistressedAmerican]

29. Just Doing My Part To End The National Nightmare!

The best to you and your son/daughter!:pals: :patriot:

[DistressedAmerican]

40. You Have The Most Ripped Avatar On DU!!!

[Swamp Rat]

33. Awesome!!! Thank you!!! n/t

[kliljedahl]

21. Good stuff, you & the Rat both

Kick & nominate


Keith’s Barbeque Central

[DistressedAmerican]

22. Kicking The Clowns And The Thread.

[libodem]

30. great poster

what clowns!

[Historic NY]

24. Another link

http://www.lies.com/wp/2003/10/20/us-deaths-in-vietnam-and-iraq-by-month/

[DistressedAmerican]

25. Wow! That Is A GREAT Read. Please Take Look Poeple !!!

Facts and stats are an important tool for making people understand the reality of this war.

Thanks for the link!!!

[Historic NY]

31. found a new link there too

http://www.lies.com/wp/2005/06/24/esmay-on-us-deaths-in-iraq/

[DistressedAmerican]

32. Sweet! Thanks!

[sandnsea]

27. Stay the Course is THEIR tp

Specifically designed to confuse people into believing that there's no difference between the Democratic plan to stabilize and leave Iraq, and the Republican plan to occupy and colonize Iraq. Keep confusing the two with "stay the course" bullshit, and we'll elect another Republican President in 2008.

[DistressedAmerican]

34. Morning Kicking! Thanks For The Nominations Folks!

[paineinthearse]

35. These projections are valid if one buys the pentagon's numbers

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the pentagon is counting Iraq KIA only if the soldier/marine dies IN IRAQ. If they are medivaced to Kuwait or Germany or a hospital ship and die out of country, their deaths are classified as "service related".

[DistressedAmerican]

37. I Have Heard Of Various Descrepancies. I'm Sure The Number Is Higher.

Paid mercenery contractors do not count. Many Special Ops toops officially do not exist. CIA?

I have heard both what you have heard about the out of theater deaths from iraq combat. I have also seen posts contrary to that. Not certain myself.

But, in principle surely the REAL number is higher than that reported at the site from which I took the stats. The cloak of secrecy prevents any good estimate...

[DistressedAmerican]

39. Boot camp!

[DemonFighterLives]

41. John McLauflin (sp) on McLauflin Group

Stated that there are over 43,000 thousand wounded who have left Iraq, 1,729 dead Soldiers and 112,000 dead Iraqis.
I'd say that is enough already.

[DistressedAmerican]

42. Couldn't Agree MORE!

[DistressedAmerican]

43. ...

[I Have A Dream]

36. Kick

:kick:

[DistressedAmerican]

44. Kick!