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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:18 AM
Original message
Sexier title - 32 reasons to give you doubt that Bush won 2004
Edited on Wed Jun-29-05 09:21 AM by helderheid
This was in response to someone saying we've never unseated a war time president. I actually lifted this a while back from the 2004 election results about other things that have never happened but did in 2004. It will make you question if he stole 2004 if you don't already:

If you still think the 2004 election was legitimate, then here are some other things you must also believe if you really believe that George W. Bush won the election:

1. That the exit polls were WRONG.
2. That Zogby’s 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning OH and FL were WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.
3. That Harris’ last minute polling for Kerry was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.
4. That the Incumbent Rule (that undecideds break for the challenger) was WRONG.
5. That the 50% Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent doesn’t do better than his final polling)
6. That the Approval Rating Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election)
7. That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that even before the election, 1 million votes were stolen from Kerry. He was the ONLY reporter to break the fact that 90,000 Florida blacks were disenfranchised in 2000.
8. That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were CORRECT where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and INCORRECT (+5% for Bush) where there was NO PAPER TRAIL.
9. That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.
10. That Bush BEAT 99-1 mathematical odds in winning the election.
11. That Kerry did WORSE than Gore against an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.
12. That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.
13. That voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no software publication, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election.
14. That people who voted for Bush were not anxious to speak to exit pollsters in the states that Bush had to win (like Florida and Ohio) where the exit polls were off, but wanted to be polled in states that he had sewn up (like Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas) where the exit polls were exactly correct.
15. That Democrats who voted for Kerry were very anxious to be exit-polled, especially in Florida and Ohio (and that this is what accounts for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual votes in these two critical states).
16. That women were much more likely to be polled early in the day in Florida and Ohio. That is another reason why the exit polls were wrong in those states. In those states in which the exit polls were correct to within one percent, women did not come out early.
17. That network newscasters who claim that those who consider the possibility of fraud are just wild conspiracy theorists do not have an agenda.
18. That it is just a coincidence that only since the 2000 presidential election have exit polls failed to agree with the actual vote - and that Bush won both disputed elections.
19. That exit polls are not to be trusted in the United States, even though they are used throughout the world to monitor elections for fraud.
20. That even though more votes were cast than there were eligible voters in many precincts of critical states, it is not an issue that needs to be covered in the media.
21. That the absence of a paper ballot trail for touch screen computers does not encourage fraud, even though they have been proven by hundreds of computer experts to be highly vulnerable to fraudulent attack.
22. That statistical tests which indicate a high probability of fraud are just conspiratorial junk science.
23. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.
24. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.
25. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.
26. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 Trillion.
27. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states. The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.
28. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry. The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.
29. That Mitofsky (who ran the exit polls), with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.
30. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.
31. That Bush could overcome Kerry’s 50.8% - 48.2% lead in the National Exit Poll Sub-sample (13,047 polled) and win the popular vote: 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll to the vote tally, far beyond the 0.86% margin of error. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 282 Billion.
32. According to a London-based insurance actuary, the odds of all of these things happening in ONE election, let alone two elections in a row, are too astronomical to be calculated!
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
1. any idea what a sexier title would be? I have time to change it
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Beam Me Up Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #1
18. With "sex" in the title, that should do it.
:nominated:

:thumbsup:
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. :) What can I say? Sex sells!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 07:18 AM
Response to Reply #1
64. Kick before 24 hour limit on nominations runs out
.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
2. Bookmark to email to friends and the media


I love this because NOW people may be ready to listen.

We knew all of this but the Media would not listen.

America is waking up from a deep sleep and the facts need to be out there again.

Thanks
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. you bet
I've been saying it was stolen from day one - but many were just not ready to hear it. THAT is changing.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Like your sexy new and TRUE title !
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I hope others will too!
:) Thanks!! :)
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
6. Dude, there is absolutely no way all 32 of those things happened.
Edited on Wed Jun-29-05 09:30 AM by LightningFlash
It's just impossible in all accounts. Even far-right wingers know it was stolen and they feel justified in stealing it.

Ohio & Florida & Georgia were the three stolen for SURE, without doubt, and that does more than enough.

Bush's handlers did not want to risk EVER losing this election or they wouldn't get the greedy fucking war they all wanted!!!!!

Doesn't America get it yet!?!?? And they wouldn't be able to complete the plan quote quote..... :mad: :mad: :mad:
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Bookmark and spread it far and wide folks


It passes the 7/11 test and that is the audience we need to reach.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
8. If you think this is valuable, please recommend
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Recommended! Let's roll out the TRUTH
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. thank you!! :) be sure to check out this video too - made by DUers
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
9. I have a lot more info on election fraud at my forum
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
12. 20 amazing facts about voting in the US
More interesting links:

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1970/
http://www.VelvetRevolution.us#020505 <-- video
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=%2218%2C181+votes%22&ei=UTF-8&fr=FP-tab-web-t&fl=0&x=wrt

20 Amazing Facts About Voting in the USA

Did you know....

1.80% of all votes in America are counted by only two companies: Diebold and ES&S.

http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diebold

2.There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.

http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0916-04.htm
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html

3.The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.

http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/private_company.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html

4.The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was “committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year.”

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml
http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1647886

5.Republican Senator Chuck Hagel used to be chairman of ES&S. He became Senator based on votes counted by ES&S machines.

http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2004/03/03_200.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/031004Fitrakis/031004fitrakis. .html

6.Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, long-connected with the Bush family, was recently caught lying about his ownership of ES&S by the Senate Ethics Committee.

http://www.blackboxvoting.com/modules.php?name=News&file=articl le&sid=26
http://www.blackboxvoting.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=26 www.hillnews.com/news/012903/hagel.aspx http://www.onlisareinsradar.com/archives/000896.php

7.Senator Chuck Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush’s vice-presidential candidates.

http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_28/b3689130.htm http://theindependent.com/stories/052700/new_hagel27.html

8.ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.

http://www.essvote.com/HTML/about/about.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html

9.Diebold’s new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.itworld.com/Tech/2987/041020evotestates/pfindex.html

10.Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.diebold.com/solutions/default.htm

11.Diebold is based in Ohio. http://www.diebold.com/aboutus/ataglance/default.htm

12.Diebold employed 5 convicted felons as senior managers and developers to help write the central compiler computer code that counted
50% of the votes in 30 states.

http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,61640,00.html
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/10/301469.shtml

13.Jeff Dean, Diebold’s Senior Vice-President and senior programmer on Diebold’s central compiler code, was convicted of 23 counts of felony theft in the first degree.

http://www.chuckherrin.com/HackthevoteFAQ.htm#how
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-8.pdf

14.Diebold Senior Vice-President Jeff Dean was convicted of planting back doors in his software and using a “high degree of sophistication” to evade detection over a period of 2 years.

http://www.chuckherrin.com/HackthevoteFAQ.htm#how
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-8.pdf

15.None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.

http://www.globalexchange.org/update/press/2638.html
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/10/26/loc_elexoh.html

16.California banned the use of Diebold machines because the security was so bad. Despite Diebold’s claims that the audit logs could not be hacked, a chimpanzee was able to do it. (See the movie here http://blackboxvoting.org/baxter/baxterVPR.mov .)

http://wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,63298,00.html http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4874190

17.30% of all U.S. votes are carried out on unverifiable touch screen voting machines with no paper trail.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml

18.All - not some - but all the voting machine errors detected and reported in Florida went in favor of Bush or Republican candidates.

http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65757,00.html
http://www.rise4news.net/extravotes.html
http://www.ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News& ;file=article&sid=950
http://www.ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News& ;file=article&sid=950 http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

19.The governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, is the President’s brother.

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/news/local/7628725.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10544-2004Oct29.html

20.Serious voting anomalies in Florida - again always favoring Bush - have been mathematically demonstrated and experts are recommending further investigation.

http://www.computerworld.com/governmenttopics/government/policy/sto ory/0,10801,97614,00.html
http://www.uscountvotes.org/
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. their evidence vs. ours
Had to repost:

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Sat May-07-05 04:30 PM
Original message
Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence

Edited on Sat May-07-05 05:22 PM by TruthIsAll
OUR EVIDENCE

We know Kerry led the pre-election state polls.
We know Kerry led the pre-election national polls.

We know Kerry led the post-election state exit polls, 51-48%.
We know Kerry led the post-election national exit poll, 51-48%

We know documented voting machine “glitches” favored Bush 99% of the time.

We know the media and E-M will not release detailed raw precinct data.
We know Blackwell refused to testify before Conyers.
We know Mitofsky refused to testify before Conyers.

We know that there were over 21 million new voters.
We know Kerry won the vast majority (57-62%) of new voters.

We know there were 3 million former Nader voters.
We kknow Kerry won Nader voters by 71%-21% over Bush.

We know Party ID averaged 39% Dem/35% Rep/26% Independent in the prior three elections.
We know Party ID was 38/35/27 for the first 13047 National Exit Poll respondents.
We know it was changed to 37/37/24 for the final 613 in the 13660 Final.

We know Kerry, like Gore, won the female vote 54/46% up until the final 660 respondents.
We know it was changed to 51% in the 13660 Final.

We know Bush 2000 voters represented an IMPOSSIBLE 43% of the 2004 electorate in the final 13660 Exit poll.
We know it was changed from 41% in the first 13047
We know that Bush had 50.456 mm votes in 2000.
We know that about 3.5% of them have since died.
We know, therefore, that the Bush percentage could not have been higher than 39.8% (48.69/122.26).
We know that with the 39.8/40.2% weighting, Kerry won by 52.4-46.7%, or SEVEN million votes.


We know the 2000 election was stolen - by Bush in Florida where 175,000 punch cards (70% of them Gore votes) were spoiled.
We know SCOTUS stopped the recount and voted 5-4 for Bush.

We know the 2002 election was stolen (ask Max Cleland).

We know that the National Exit Poll MoE is under 1%.
We know because we checked the NEP margin of error table.
We know because we did the simple MoE calculation.
We know that Kerry won the Natioanl Poll by over 3%, 51-48%.
We know the odds are astronomical that the deviation was triple the MoE.

We know that 42 of 50 states deviated from the exit polls to Bush. We know that includes ALL 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone.

We know that 16 states deviated beyond the exit poll MoE for Bush, and none did for Kerry.

We know that touch screen voting machines became widely used in 2004.

We know that Republicans fought against paper ballots for Diebold and ESS touch screens.

We know that ALL Diebold ATMs provide a paper receipt.

We know that the deviation trend from the exit polls to the vote was approaching ZERO until 2000, when there was a dramatic reversal.

We know that scores of newspapers which supported Bush in 2000 supported Kerry in 2004.

We know that Kerry won the Ohio Exit Poll, by at least 51-48%.

We know the media will not report in any of the above.


THEIR EVIDENCE:
Something we don't know.
The rBr hypothesis: Bush voters were reluctant to speak to exit pollsters.

But..
We know that many Republican voters deserted Bush for Kerry.
We know there were hardly any Gore Democrats who voted for Bush.

Ladies and Gentleman of the Jury:
Have you reached a verdict?
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #13
77. GREAT VIDEOS!!!!
http://www.udpc.org/videos.htm
UDPC Extra Interesting Stuff

Check out our videos!

ACTION ALERT FROM ANDY STEPHENSON

I am just back from the Progressive Democrats of America Conference in Washington. The trip was a very productive and the consensus coming from that is, that we all believe that a paper ballot is the first step in a larger battle for election reform. This is the beginning of a new Voting Rights Movement … and we are all on the front lines because democracy, itself, depends on us. ...

...I will be back in Washington next week with Warren Stewart and Joan Krawitz of the National Ballot Integrity Project, to lobby for Senator Ensign’s Bill Entitled the Voting Integrity and Verification Act of 2005 (V.I.V.A. 2005). VIVA clarifies the language in the Help America Vote Act of 2002, adding a requirement for a voter verified paper ballot and making that paper ballot the primary ballot of record. It was introduced late in the last session with bi-partisan sponsorship as S. 2347 and we are told that it will have identical language this time and will be introduced early in February.
More >>

Click here to see the video online of Howard Dean and Bev Harris hacking into a Diebold machine in under 2 minutes!



Hacking aside, these machines aren't ready for primetime. Just ask Diebold. They'll tell you in this video.

And now for some e-vote humor...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you Paul Baer!






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pictures and experiences from the Michael Moore Event!




Click here for moore!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear Members and Friends of the UDPC:
Many of you may have already read about plans at Dugway to substantially expand operations, including chemical and biological testing operations. Below is a copy of the Federal Register notice announcing the final environmental impact statement (FEIS) prepared in response to this proposal. More >>

Suspect there's more to this election than meets the eye? You may be right. Find out at our forum. Also, see

Countdown with Keith Olbermann on MSNBC as well as this interview from Democracy Now! with Bev Harris.

MoveOn.ORG wants to know if we should investigate the vote


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Check out the videos that were so popular we had to up our bandwidth! NEW Fahrenheit 9/11 available online to view now!

Looking for a laugh? Perhaps more? Click here for videos with vital info as well as comic relief.

I didn't know I was UnAmerican - Flash - VERY powerful. Please pass it on.

Did you miss Jon Stewart (of Comedy Central's Daily Show with Jon Stewart) on CNN's Crossfire?
Watch it here! Jon Stewart gave a brilliant assessment about the problems with the media and politics.



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The Revolution Donating Member (497 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
14. Question on exit polls
I've got a question about the exit poll data. I've been wondering about this for awhile, but I keep forgetting to ask. Hopefully you can help clear this up.

Ok, assuming these are true:

-The exit polls on election day in 2004 did not match the "official results" - they predicted Kerry was the winner.
-The pollsters did not release their final numbers for some time
-When the pollsters released their final numbers, they had been "adjusted" to match the offical results.

My question then is:

When comparing the exit poll data from the 2004 election to previous elections, are you using the raw (election day) data from the previous elections, or are you using adjusted (final) data from the previous elections?

In other words, when you say exit poll numbers were accurate in the past, are you sure you are not using numbers that had been adjusted to match the official election result?

That is a good list though. I think #8 (paper trails) might be the most convincing. I remember seeing some graphs about this shortly after the election. Do you have a link that shows this (bush's vote percentage higher than expected in areas with no paper trail)?
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. I wish I could give you an answer
I would ask TruthIsAll - TIA is extremely knowledgeable about this subject. Here's a post from TIA that may be helpful:

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Wed May-11-05 12:06 PM
Original message

TIA constraint: 2004 Votes = G+B+N+New, or New = 122.26-49.21-48.69-3.21



Total 2004 votes = Returning 2000 voters + New Voters

Total 2004 votes = Gore + Bush + Nader + New voters

New = 122.26-49.21-48.69-3.21

New = 21.15 (minimum)

Kerry won 57-60% of New voters.

Total Kerry vote = K = .9*Gore + .1*Bush + .7*Nader + .57*New
Total Bush vote = B = .1*Gore + .9*Bush + .2*Nader + .41*New

You do the math..
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. Good question

DU was really into all of this, there were tons of threads but we were the only ones listening.

Rove completely controlled the media.

I think there is now a hole in the dike.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #14
58. Answer..
Preliminary polls have always been adjusted to match the final vote...and Democrats have always lost from the exit polls to the final vote.

What is the definition of a "correct" poll? Is the final poll "correct" if it matches to a corrupt vote? Is the preliminary poll "incorrect" if it does not agree with the corrupted final vote? The early poll numbers were actually closer to being correct, not the final.

Prior to touchscreens, punched card votes were the culprit. They were spoiled/lost in democratic minority precinctcs and the discrepancies showed up in the exit polls - which were then adjusted to the final vote, effectively camopuflaging the difference.

The true intent of the voter was reflected in the preliminary poll,
the final poll was adjusted to hide the discrepancies. People who were exit polled thought their votes counted, not realizing that they were spoileds.

Nevertheless, the gap between preliminary exit polls and the final improved from 1988 to 2000, but the trend was reversed in 2004 with the introduction of touchscreens. This time fewer votes were lost from spoiled punched cards, but others disappeared on touchscreens when Kerry votes were switched to Bush.

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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #58
60. TIA...
I am SO glad to see you here!!!! You are my hero!
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 01:31 AM
Response to Reply #58
78. Bingo. That wraps it up.
:yourock:
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frictionlessO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
15. Each one of those beliefs is a seed to disagreement.
Each seed of disagreement leads to questioning... and questioning this administration on their motives and actions is all we have been asking for.

Love ya Helder, thanks for this and Nom'd!
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. Love ya too!
:hi:
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #15
32. The ball should be in their court


if we keep putting the ball there.

We want to just forget about it but we can't bcause 2006 is just months away.

They are all set to do it again because we are not HOT on their trail.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
21. kick for the TRUTH - He lied his way into war, and he stole the election
Let's expose his ass.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. .
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
23. Lunch kick and I'm off to eat with the Vice Chair of the Dem Party of my
State and the co-chair of the Progressive Caucus of my State. :)
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DaveJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 01:48 PM
Response to Original message
24. Of course this deserves attention
The implications behind this are enormous. I mean, if * is able to steal a Presidential election, then civilization as we know it is dead, and there is no way to prosecute or change anything when we are dealing with such a fascist dictator.

What are the odds that election reform really will occur, and if it does how do we know they won't just develop another way to cheat? Since * is apparently in complete control, I'm sure he'll see to it that he passes his torch of dictatorship to someone amicable, and bribe or otherwise destroy any formidable threat.

We see in poll after poll that Shrub is not liked by his own people, yet we are such docile automatons that we have no choice but to allow this administration to continue.
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. By a cheating ASS, MAYBE!
But NOT by the american people! :mad: :mad:

See this entire blowout conference, http://www.commoncause.org

Force full blown voting reform conferences or else they'll keep tryin to elect themselves (no more repubs or dems)
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. One major problem is the machines
We need a massive campaign, IMHO, to get people who would otherwise vote on voting machines to VOTE ABSENTEE with a PAPER ballot. It won't solve all the problems but bycotting the e-vote machines would send a powerful message and just might allow for a fair (more fair) election.
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area51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #24
54. Welcome.
Welcome to DU, djohnson.
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smirkymonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
26. Bookmarked, Nominated and Kicked!
:kick:

This will come in handy when visiting the Republican relatives this weekend. Thanks!
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. happy to help with family gatherings!
;)
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Just Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 01:56 PM
Response to Original message
27. Impressive!!!
Thanks!!! :hi:
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #27
35. you bet!
:hi:
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vince3 Donating Member (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
28. Great Post
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #28
44. Thanks! please keep it for all to see!
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Al-CIAda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
31. Rec'd!
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emcguffie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
33. this is great.
How can I save it? Is there a way? When I e-mail myself, I don't get it....
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. Everything here is on the forum
http://www.udpc.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15

If you want, pm me and I can email it to you! :)
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emcguffie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #34
70. Thanks. I copied it.
I just learned to make a PDF after selecting everything --

this may just be a try-out feature-for-thirty-days kind of thing. But it's great. Now if I can only remember where I put it when I need it!

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mcd1982 Donating Member (221 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
36. where did #20 happen? (nt)
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. I think I found it here
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #37
41. Kick for renewed interest in the answers
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #36
38. more
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 07:41 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. more
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. more
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
42. Just got this from the 2004 election results list
TruthIsAll is AMAZING!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380907

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Mon Jun-27-05 02:19 AM
Original message
To believe Bush won, you must believe this.
Edited on Mon Jun-27-05 03:02 AM by TruthIsAll

1)According to the Final National Exit Poll:

We know that 43% of 2004 Voters claimed to be Bush 2000 voters and just 37% claimed to be Gore voters. Since 43% is an impossible figure (it would mean Bush got 52.57 mm votes in 2000, when he only got 50.456mm), we are asked to believe this:

Gore 2000 voters forgot who they voted for or lied when they said they voted for Bush.

Since the ratio is 43% Bush/37% Gore =1.162, then for every 100 Gore voters, there were 16 who lied or forgot that they voted for Gore.


2) Reluctant Bush Responder (rBr):

There were 57.75 Kerry voters for every 50 Bush voters who spoke to the exit pollsters.

The ratio is 57.75/50= 1.155

To put it another way, 16 Bush voters out of every 116 decided to avoid the exit pollsters, compared to 116 Kerry voters who spoke to them.

What are we to conclude from these two theories?

Simply this:
That Kerry voters were more anxious to talk to exit pollsters then were Bush voters and when they did, they lied or forgot that they voted for Gore in 2000.



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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. scoot!
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #43
45. kick.nt
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:36 PM
Response to Original message
46. ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381226
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Tue Jun-28-05 04:17 PM
Original message
ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS
Edited on Tue Jun-28-05 04:21 PM by TruthIsAll


ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS

62.03mm Recorded Bush votes
59.03mm Recorded Kerry votes
122.3mm Total votes

16 states exceeded the MoE in favor of Bush
0 states exceeded the MoE in favor of Kerry
1 in 40:Probability a given state would exceed MoE for Bush
1 in 19 Trillion: Prob. at least 16 states exceed MoE for
Bush

22 Eastern Time Zone states
22 EST states deviated to Bush
1 in 4.2 million: Probability 22 EST states deviate to Bush

42 states deviated from exit poll to vote in favor of Bush
1 in 1.7 million:Probability at least 42 states deviate to
Bush

86 touchscreen incidents where Kerry votes switched to Bush
2 touchscreen incidents where Bush votes switched to Kerry
1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000: probability 86 to
Bush


OHIO
Recorded Vote
2.740mm (48.71%) Kerry
2.859mm (50.82%) Bush

Exit Poll
2.871 (51.03%) Kerry
2.711 (48.19%) Bush

1 in 106:Probability exit poll deviation to recorded vote


FLORIDA
40.89% Dem registration: Touchscreen counties
36.77% Repub. registration
51.30% Kerry%

41.92% Dem. registration: Optiscan counties
38.98% Repub. registration
42.27% Kerry%

National Exit Poll: Kerry % at 12:22am
50.84% Regional weights (13047 respondents)
50.90% State exit polls weighted by vote share
0.87% Nat Exit Poll MoE (13047 respondents)

National Exit Poll Timeline of Kerry Vote %:
50.75% 3:39pm (8349 respondents)
50.77% 7:33pm (11027 respondents)
50.80% 12:22am (13047 respondents)
47.94% 1:25pm (13660 respondents)

Kerry vote share
57% New Voters(13047 respondents)
65% Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
54% New Voters(13660 respondents)
71% Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry

Kerry share of Female Vote
Pct Respondents
58% 8349
53% 11027
54% 13047
51% 13660

Party ID (Dem/ Rep / Ind)
Pct Respondents
38/35/27 13047
37/37/26 13660

How Voted in 2000:
0.87% U.S. Annual death rate
3.50% approx. percent of 2000 voters who died

50.456mm:Bush 2000 vote
48.7mm:Approximate Bush 2000 voters still alive
39.82%:Maximum % Bush 2000 voters who could vote in 2004

51.999mm:Gore 2000 vote
49.2mm:Approximate Gore 2000 voters still alive
40.25%:Maximum % Gore 2000 voters who could vote in 2004


13047 Respondents
41% Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
39% Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote

13660 Respondents
43% Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
37% Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote

National Census
125.7mm:Estimate of total 2004 vote
122.3mm:Recorded vote
3.4mm: Difference
0.30%: Census MoE

Exit Poll WPE Analysis by Precinct Partisanship

6.77%:Aggregate WPE (within precinct error-1250)
1.155:Minimum alpha (57.75 Kerry/ 50 Bush) required to
satisfy WPE
53%: Aggregate exit poll response rate

51.24%: Bush 2-party recorded vote
52.15%: Kerry 2-party exit poll


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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:39 PM
Response to Original message
47. EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377962

(you'll have to click the above link to get the links below to work)

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Tue Jun-14-05 11:42 AM
Original message
EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update
Edited on Tue Jun-14-05 12:10 PM by TruthIsAll



EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update

My Election Model projections:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel /


National Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov.3, 13660 Respondents

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U...

National Exit Poll
12:22am Nov. 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

National Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov 2, 11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

National Exit Poll Timeline (pdf):

11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04...

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04...

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48-Bush 51
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04...


ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&...


OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 08:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


What are the odds?
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


POLL BAD, VOTE COUNT GOOD: The RW (M)ost (O)utrageous (E)xcrement
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 12:25 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE% SHOW...
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


HERE IS WHAT BUSH NEEDED TO DO IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 12:56 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, Optimizer needs wtd alpha >= 1.15
Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


ANY OF YOU QUANTS CARE TO COMMENT ON THIS?
Edited on Thu Jun-09-05 11:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

OPTIMIZER: Assume the PLAUSIBLE scenario that the exit polls were RIGHT
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 02:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 04:15 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ENTER YOUR OWN EXIT POLL MODEL INPUTS TO HELP DEBUNK rBr.
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 05:00 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 02:33 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Exit Poll Response Optimization Analysis (Max/min Kerry/Bush vote%)
Edited on Wed Jun-01-05 11:43 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void
Edited on Tue May-31-05 02:27 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


AVG OF 80,000 EXIT POLL RESPONSE CURVE SIMULATIONS: KERRY BY 6 MIL VOTES!
Edited on Mon May-30-05 09:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


IMPLAUSIBLE rBr: I just ran a 100,000 trial simulation...
Edited on Mon May-30-05 07:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Poll question: Which of these facts convinced you that the election was stolen?
Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:06 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis
Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES? CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED: 122.3MM!
Edited on Thu May-26-05 05:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CENSUS DATA MATCHED NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS(12:22AM, 13047 SAMPLE)
Edited on Fri May-27-05 07:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A Long Trip Down the Denial River of Doubt
Edited on Wed May-25-05 10:13 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....
Edited on Wed May-25-05 01:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Do they really expect us to believe all that nonsense?
Edited on Tue May-24-05 08:03 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A new Poly Sci Statistic:The sBr (Shy Bush Responder) differential
Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:11 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

IS rBr STILL BREATHING? THE REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:34 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Exposing the Myths: One by One
Edited on Sat May-21-05 10:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

rBr: The Bush voter equivalent of WMD. There's no there there.
Edited on Wed May-18-05 10:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Prob (86 of 88 screens switch K to B): 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000
Edited on Sun May-15-05 10:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:17 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

YOU WANT KERRY? PRESS RIGHT HERE. DON'T YOU WORRY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH..
Edited on Sat May-14-05 05:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

To Believe that Bush won.....
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:21 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sat May-14-05 01:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?
Edited on Sat May-14-05 07:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS
Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:24 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Probability that 86 of 88 BBV's would switch Kerry votes to Bush?
Edited on Thu May-12-05 10:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


3 NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Thu May-12-05 09:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

We should all rejoice in the promotion of the rBr Liepothesis.
Edited on Wed May-11-05 03:07 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTES?
Edited on Tue May-10-05 09:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Tue May-10-05 02:40 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Could 14.4% of Gore voters have voted for Bush?
Edited on Sun May-08-05 09:32 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?
Edited on Sun May-08-05
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's 51-48% margin
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Yes, the Reluctant Republican Responder (3%) was a KERRY voter!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 03:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FEBBLE: WILL YOU COMMENT ON THIS MYSTERY?
Edited on Tue May-03-05 09:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The Reluctant Gore Responder (RGR)
Edited on Mon May-02-05 01:50 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A PUZZLE: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 04:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%...
Edited on Fri Apr-29-05 10:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE
Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 07:25 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS WITHIN .06%
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 03:10 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A TIA CHALLENGE: REFUTE THESE ODDS!
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 06:16 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Z-score Probability (Bush Z>1 in 35 states): 1 in 4500 trillion
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 01:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Red Shift: Z-scores and Probabilities. Take a deep breath.
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 03:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Truth: 0 to 13,047; Fiction: 13,048 - 13,660
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its 1.0% for over 8000 respondents
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 05:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:07 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

TIMELINE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 12:31 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens: Prob of 9% discrepancy (1 in 12.7 trillion)
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 02:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Jan 3 post on the IMPOSSIBLE How Voted weight is NOT from me!
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 04:29 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 10:59 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Calc the SAMPLE-SIZE for any MoE and confidence level
Edited on Thu Apr-14-05 09:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data
Edited on Mon Apr-11-05 10:58 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

I'M REALLY CONFUSED. WAS THERE A (N)ATURAL (B)USH (R)ESPONDER? Edited on Sun Apr-10-05 02:10 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WHICH IS IT: RBR OR EBR ?
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

OK, THERE WAS THIS BUSH "BANDWAGON" EFFECT...
Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 09:49 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 03:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Another National Exit Poll Mystery: The Gender Vote. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 11:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

From Selection 2000 to 2004 (NEP): Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

IF YOU BELIEVE THESE 5 IRREFUTABLE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 12:58 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A 9TH GRADE ALGEBRAIC SMOKING GUN
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE FINAL EXIT POLL MYSTERY: THE IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore MIX...
Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THE KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY...
Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

View the Mathematical FACTS for the TRUTH...
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 10:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FASTEN SEAT BELTS. THIS IS THE CLINCHER.
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WORTH REPEATING: FINAL NEP PADDED MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe …
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 12:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

100% ABSOLUTE PROOF: FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE MAGIC 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Lynn Landes, this is for you.
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll - Trend reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Bush probabilities for Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...





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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:45 PM
Response to Original message
48. FACT: Two war-time Presidents UNSEATED THEMSELVES!
1) Truman chose not to run again because of the growing unpopularity of the Koren War.

2) LBJ chose not to run again because of the growing unpopularity of the Vietnam War.

So let's compare George W's not-so-excellent-adventure in Iraq (during the campaign):
1) The Fallujah disaster.

2) The Abu Ghraib prison torture scandal

3) The American death toll passed 1000; AND the British Medical Journal announced that over 100,000 Iraqi's had died at the hands of the coalition (mostly innocent women and children) - many times more than the iraqi insurgents/terrorists had killed

4) Finally, Bush's war approval rating (what caused the previous two presidents mentioned above to not run again) had dropped so much, and so fast, that Cheney was desperately scrambling all over the country basically telling voters that "if Kerry is elected, Bin Laden will come to your house and kill you!" (a quote from either Margaret Carlson or Eleanor Clift).
--------------------------

So, considering all of this, GW should've been the first "war time president" NOT to be re-elected since the unpopular complications were much worse than the two previous presidents above who had the sense not to run again.

But, we all know why this didn't happen, don't we?

BUSH STOLE THE ELECTION!
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #48
51. Let's help him unseat himself again!
IMPEACH for HIGH CRIMES lying to Congress for an ILLEGAL WAR
EXPOSE COINGATE IN OHIO - FOLLOW THE MONEY! It will lead to election fraud in Ohio!
GET RID of these FUCKING MACHINES! In the meantime VOTE ABSENTEE!
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #51
53. I'm with ya helderheid, but we have a problem...
a Republican Bushbot congress. The only way to get rid on the thief-in-chief now, is for the people to rise up by the millions in outraged indignation, and DEMAND his removal!

Will it happen? We will see.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #53
56. I see even the R's wanting to distance themselves from this
foreign press will be key
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #48
71. Thousands of votes stolen....
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:16 PM
Response to Original message
49. Helderheid, You absolutely Rock! Thanks for this thread!
Thanks also for all you great work for the cause!
Hugs,
Melissa :hug: :yourock: :loveya:
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. :D OK, TIA asked I post the next four threads (and I've asked TIA to join)
PART I
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Fri Nov-05-04 03:07 AM
Original message
To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe...
To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

1- That the exit polls were WRONG...

2- That Zogby's 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning OH, FL were WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.

3- That Harris last minute polling for Kerry was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.

4- The Incumbent Rule I (that undecideds break for the challenger)was WRONG.

5- The 50% Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent doesn't do better than his final polling)

6- The Approval Rating Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election)

7- That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that even before the election, 1 million votes were stolen from Kerry. He was the ONLY reporter to break the fact that 90,000 Florida blacks were disnfranchised in 2000.

8- That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were CORRECT where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and INCORRECT (+5% for Bush) where there was NO PAPER TRAIL.

9- That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.

10- That Bush BEAT 99-1 mathematical odds in winning the election.

11- That Kerry did WORSE than Gore agains an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.

12- That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.

13- That Voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no software publication, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election



PART II
To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe...
Edited on Tue Nov-16-04 12:05 AM by TruthIsAll

Part II: To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe...

1. That people who voted for Bush were not anxious to speak to exit pollsters in the states that Bush had to win (like Florida and Ohio) where the exit polls were off, but wanted to be polled in states that he had sewn up (like Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas) where the exit polls were exactly correct.

2. That Democrats who voted for Kerry were very anxious to be exit-polled, especially in Florida and Ohio. That accounts for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual votes in these two critical states.

3. That women were much more likely to be polled early in the day in Florida and Ohio. That is another reason why the exit polls were wrong in those states. In those states in which the exit polls were correct to within one percent, women did not come out early.

4. That the University of Pennsylvania Professor (trained at MIT) who calculated the probability of Bush gaining votes beyond the exit polling margin of error as ONE out of 250 million, does not have any credibility.

5. That network newscasters who claim that those who consider the possibility of fraud are just wild conspiracy theorists do not have an agenda.

6. That it is just a coincidence that only since the 2000 presidential election have exit polls failed to agree with the actual vote - and that Bush won both disputed elections.

7. That exit polls are not to be trusted in the United States, even though they are used throughout the world to monitor elections for fraud.

8. That even though more votes were cast than there were eligible voters in many precincts of critical states, it is not an issue that needs to be covered in the media.

9. That the absence of a paper ballot trail for touch screen computers does not encourage fraud, even though they have been proven by hundreds of computer experts to be highly vulnerable to fraudulent attack.

10. That statistical tests which indicate a high probability of fraud are just conspiratorial junk science.


PART III
Part IIIb. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe...
Edited on Wed Dec-29-04 12:58 AM by TruthIsAll

Part IIIb: To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe....

1. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

2. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.

3. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.

4. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 Trillion.

5. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

6. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

7. That Bush could overcome Kerry’s 50.8% - 48.2% lead in the National Exit Poll Sub-sample (13,047 polled) and win the popular vote: 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll to the vote tally, far beyond the 0.86% margin of error.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 282 Billion.

8. That Kerry would edge Bush by 15 votes in the additional 1000 votes uncovered in the Oshocton County OH recount, when Bush had previously won 57% of the 16,000 votes initially counted. Oshocton was the ONLY Ohio county which did a FULL recount.
The odds of this occurrence: Less than 1 in 4 million.

9. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.

10. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of exit polling experience, has lost his touch.


PART IV
Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe...

1. That the Final National Exit Poll (FEP) of 13660 respondents, which was matched to the recorded vote and had Bush the winner by 51-48%, had to be accurate. And you must also believe that the Preliminary Exit Poll (PEP) of 13047 which had Kerry the winner by 51-48% had to be inaccurate.

2. That if the FEP re-weighted the PEP percentage of Bush 2000 voters who voted in 2004 (from 41% to 43%) and also adjusted the corresponding Gore voters (from 38% to 37%), then the re-weighting accurately reflects the final vote count - which Bush won by 51-48%.

And it would, if Bush 2000 voters did in fact comprise 43% of all 2004 voters (122.26 million). But they didn’t, because the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004 was 41.3% (50.45/122.26). This is the same 41% (rounded?) as given in the PEP, which Kerry won by 51-48%. And so even 41.3% is too high, for it assumes that NOT ONE Bush 2000 voter died prior to 2004, and that EVERY Bush 2000 voter also voted in 2004. Knowing this is impossible, why would you believe the FEP that said Bush won by 51-48%, since this very result assumes an impossibility?

3. That the 43% (52.57 million) of Bush 2000 voters who voted in 2004 must be LESS than the total Bush vote in 2000, since it is obvious that a certain percentage of Bush 2000 voters have passed on. And we can also assume that other former Bush voters either could not or would not vote in 2004. But it wasn't LESS, it was MORE, so why would you believe it?

4. That the 43% statistic is accurate since Bush won by 51-48% and this weighted result assumes 43%. But for this result to be true, then you must also believe that Bush had at least two million more votes in 2000 than the 50.45 million he was credited with. But we know this is not true, so why would you believe it?

5. That the published U.S. annual death rate of 0.87% is incorrect, because if it were true, then it follows that about 3.5% of the population dies during each four year period. Therefore, Bush must have received at least 54.3 million votes in 2000 (52.57+1.75), if we assume that 1.75 million (or 3.5%) of Bush voters in 2000 passed on. This is a necessary condition in order to believe the 43% statistic. But Bush only received 50.45 million votes, so why would you believe it?

6. That Kerry won only 51% of the female vote, although the PEP had him winning by 54-45%. Gore won 54% of females in 2000. So why would you believe the FEP?

7. That the FEP Party ID weights were 37% Democrat/37% Republican/ 26% Independents, while the PEP had it 38/35/27 - virtually the same as the final exit poll Party_ID demographic in the prior three elections.

8. That even though Kerry won at least 4 million more votes than Bush among the 17% (21 million) voters who did NOT vote in 2000 (Kerry led 57-41% in the PEP, 54-45% in the FEP), he would still lose the election. Why would you believe it?

9. That even though Kerry won the new voters and those who did not vote in 2000 by at least 4 million (12-8 million), and that the Bush 2004 vote based on the 43% Bush 2000 voter stat was at least 3 million too high, Bush still gained 12 million votes from 2000 (from 50 to 62 million). Why would you believe it?

10. That the Reluctant Bush Responder (RBR) theory is true. Otherwise, how else could one explain the PEP exit poll discrepancies which had Kerry winning? But if you believe RBR, how can you also believe that 43% of Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004, but only 37% did for Gore? Both statements CANNOT be true, because they are contradictory, yet they MUST BOTH both be true if one is to believe that Bush really did win the election. But why would you believe it?

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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
52. This is HIGHLY interesting! Current approval rates vs. outcome - fraud??
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381452

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Wed Jun-29-05 05:48 PM
Original message
Bush approval/disapproval by state: clues about the fraud?
Edited on Wed Jun-29-05 05:57 PM by TruthIsAll

Like where and how much?

http://surveyusa.com/Bush50StateApproval0605.htm

Anyone care to do a multiple regression analysis of Bush disapproval (D) as a function of state exit poll (E) and recorded vote (V)?

D = aE + bV +c

Determine constants a, b, c.
Calculate R-Sq.

Correlation analysis, anyone?
Knock yourself out.



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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #52
55. .
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
57. How much more do we need to know? Where's the outrage?
This is excellent. Thank you. Why isn't this on the news? Why don't our Democratic reps piush this? That's why there is much less outrage than there should be. The information is getting out and thanks for this contribution.

:yourock:
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #57
59. You're right and you so rock too!
It's time we quit depending on the media and our elected officials. As the Hopi's said, "We are the one's we've been waiting for".

The internet is the new media. We need to get elected locally - if evote machines are used, vote absentee.

Those is NYC, go to the Today show with signs when they go outside to talk to the crowds.

If your local station has a place to be seen as well, go there.

If you know people outside the US, educate them and ask them to ask their media to report it.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
61. go here
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
62. something to do
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are_we_united_yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
63. Nice compendium!
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Al-CIAda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 07:58 AM
Response to Original message
65. .
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paineinthearse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
66. .
Edited on Thu Jun-30-05 08:59 AM by paineinthearse
deleted
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paineinthearse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 08:58 AM
Response to Original message
67. "I actually lifted this a while back from the 2004 election results"
Link, please?
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #67
68. I'll see if I can't find it in the archive
Edited on Thu Jun-30-05 10:28 AM by helderheid
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #67
69. found it!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=368562

Riddler (162 posts) Fri May-13-05 03:08 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Not sure if this is the list you're referring to....
but I found this on a local board a few months ago and saved it.

20 Amazing Facts About Voting in the USA

Did you know....
1. 80% of all votes in America are counted by only two companies: Diebold and ES&S.
2. There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.
3. The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.
4. The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was “committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year.”
5. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel used to be chairman of ES&S. He became Senator based on votes counted by ES&S machines.
6. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, long-connected with the Bush family, was recently caught lying about his ownership of ES&S by the Senate Ethics Committee.
7. Senator Chuck Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush’s vice-presidential candidates.
8. ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.
9. Diebold’s new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.
10. Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.
11. Diebold is based in Ohio.
12. Diebold employed 5 convicted felons as senior managers and developers to help write the central compiler computer code that counted 50% of the votes in 30 states.
13. Jeff Dean, Diebold’s Senior Vice-President and senior programmer on Diebold’s central compiler code, was convicted of 23 counts of felony theft in the first degree.
14. Diebold Senior Vice-President Jeff Dean was convicted of planting back doors in his software and using a “high degree of sophistication” to evade detection over a period of 2 years.
15. None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.
16. California banned the use of Diebold machines because the security was so bad. Despite Diebold’s claims that the audit logs could not be hacked, a chimpanzee was able to do it.
17. 30% of all U.S. votes are carried out on unverifiable touch screen voting machines with no paper trail.
18. All - not some - but all the voting machine errors detected and reported in Florida went in favor of Bush or Republican candidates.
19. The governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, is the President’s brother.
20. Serious voting anomalies in Florida - again always favoring Bush - have been mathematically demonstrated and experts are recommending further investigation.

Are you old enough to remember when the United States was the world standard-bearer for open, fair elections? Don’t you wonder what all the Veterans of REAL wars like World War II, not politically manufactured wars like the current fiasco in Iraq, fought for? Aren’t you tired of our system of government being hijacked by criminals and thugs like the Bush Family? Did you know that the Bush family is the most corrupt family in American Political History? If you don’t believe it, just research the family history and their ties to everything from Adolph Hitler, to Savings and Loan scandals, to the Iran-Contra scandal, to the Saudi Royal Family, to the Bin-Laden Family, to world-wide drug trafficking, to illegal CIA covert operations, to assassinations, to theft, to corruption, and last but not least, to stealing elections. This family should be deported, not revered! But if you still think the 2004 election was legitimate, then here are some other things you must also believe if you really believe that George W. Bush won the election:

1. That the exit polls were WRONG.
2. That Zogby’s 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning OH and FL were WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.
3. That Harris’ last minute polling for Kerry was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.
4. That the Incumbent Rule (that undecideds break for the challenger) was WRONG.
5. That the 50% Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent doesn’t do better than his final polling)
6. That the Approval Rating Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election)
7. That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that even before the election, 1 million votes were stolen from Kerry. He was the ONLY reporter to break the fact that 90,000 Florida blacks were disenfranchised in 2000.
8. That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were CORRECT where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and INCORRECT (+5% for Bush) where there was NO PAPER TRAIL.
9. That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.
10. That Bush BEAT 99-1 mathematical odds in winning the election.
11. That Kerry did WORSE than Gore against an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.
12. That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.
13. That voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no software publication, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election.
14. That people who voted for Bush were not anxious to speak to exit pollsters in the states that Bush had to win (like Florida and Ohio) where the exit polls were off, but wanted to be polled in states that he had sewn up (like Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas) where the exit polls were exactly correct.
15. That Democrats who voted for Kerry were very anxious to be exit-polled, especially in Florida and Ohio (and that this is what accounts for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual votes in these two critical states).
16. That women were much more likely to be polled early in the day in Florida and Ohio. That is another reason why the exit polls were wrong in those states. In those states in which the exit polls were correct to within one percent, women did not come out early.
17. That network newscasters who claim that those who consider the possibility of fraud are just wild conspiracy theorists do not have an agenda.
18. That it is just a coincidence that only since the 2000 presidential election have exit polls failed to agree with the actual vote - and that Bush won both disputed elections.
19. That exit polls are not to be trusted in the United States, even though they are used throughout the world to monitor elections for fraud.
20. That even though more votes were cast than there were eligible voters in many precincts of critical states, it is not an issue that needs to be covered in the media.
21. That the absence of a paper ballot trail for touch screen computers does not encourage fraud, even though they have been proven by hundreds of computer experts to be highly vulnerable to fraudulent attack.
22. That statistical tests which indicate a high probability of fraud are just conspiratorial junk science.
23. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.
24. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.
25. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.
26. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 Trillion.
27. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states. The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.
28. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry. The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.
29. That Mitofsky (who ran the exit polls), with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.
30. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.
31. That Bush could overcome Kerry’s 50.8% - 48.2% lead in the National Exit Poll Sub-sample (13,047 polled) and win the popular vote: 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll to the vote tally, far beyond the 0.86% margin of error. The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 282 Billion.
32. According to a London-based insurance actuary, the odds of all of these things happening in ONE election, let alone two elections in a row, are too astronomical to be calculated!

Now ask yourself…..Do you really believe George W. Bush won the last 2 elections fairly? If your answer is “yes”….Congratulations!!!!!! You’re the typical misinformed voter who is gullible enough to put all your faith in what Fox News tells you instead of investigating what the truth really is and facing the reality that George W. Bush and his right-wing followers have hijacked this country and rendered our system of elections….the same system put in place by our founding fathers 229 years ago….useless.


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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #67
76. did I get you what you needed?
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
72. what the hell kick
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #72
73. final personal kick
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kittenpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
74. nominated... thanks for compiling this. can I share this
with everyone I know?
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. Yes and GOD BLESS YOU. :) And feel free to
kick the hell out of this thread!
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
79. Kerry won period and we all here on DU know it,
American knows better then to put that idiot back into the WH.

:kick:
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