New NBC Poll Has Dean 1 point Ahead of Clark

[JaneQPublic]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Howard Dean 17
Wesley Clark 16
Joe Lieberman 16
John Kerry 11
Richard Gephardt 8
John Edwards 4
Al Sharpton 3
Bob Graham 2
Dennis Kucinich 2
Carol Moseley Braun 1
None (vol.) 4
Other (vol.) 1
Not sure 14

Of course, Clark, Dean, and Lieberman are all within margin of error.

An interesting point I heard yesterday on NPR's "All Things Considered" is that Clark's standing in these polls vary greatly depending on whether the pollster puts "General" in front of his name.

I wonder if Howard Dean would get a similar bump in the polls if the pollsters referred to him with "Governor" before his name and "M.D." after.

[PAMod]

1. Good point

People who are not really paying close attention to the race would be influenced by any "help" they get from the pollster.

I answered a telephone poll a few months back concerning "arctic exploration" with regards to possible oil reserves.

The poll was so egregiously in favor of drilling up there that it was laughable. The more I resisted their line of reasoning, the longer the poll was!

They wanted me to go along with it just to end the phone call!

[Le Taz Hot]

2. So does the WSJ

(Thanks to Amerikav60 for the link.)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Granted, both are statistical dead heats but the trend is clear -- up for Dean, down or stagnant for the rest (the exception is Clark, who just entered the race).

[flpoljunkie]

3. Wonder how many of the Non-Dems planning to vote in say, NH, are Repugs...

who still want Dean to get the Dem nomination. And New Hampshire is not the only state where Repugs can vote in the Democatic primary.


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Sept. 20-22, 2003. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary.

[JaneQPublic]

4. Or they could be Repugs who actually want Dean for President

http://atlblogs.com/republicansfordean/

[polpilot]

5. The 'key' to understanding Dean is to realize his repub support in his

previous campaigns in Vermont. When one applys this repub vote nationally a more clear picture emerges of his potential landslide election. He doesn't NEED all of the demo support if he can replicate his repub support in Vermont and HE CAN.

This historical repub support releases Dean from 'negotiating' with the DLC, DNC, & entrenced long term demo politicos,... and scares the literal s*** out of them, hence the Clintons knee jerk push for Clark which is akin to rolling a barrell in front of a sprinter.

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party

[StopTheMorans]

6. does this mean that Dean is the front-runner again?

n/t

[JaneQPublic]

7. National polls probably don't matter as much as those from IA & NH

Keep in mind that in the last few months when all the media were heralding Dean as the "frontrunner," Lieberman was actually leading in the national polls. However, Dean was on top where it counted most: Iowa and New Hampshire, where the first caucus/primary will be held.

So I guess the next question that needs to be answered is: Now that Clark has entered the race, who is the current leader in Iowa and New Hampshire? Has anyone seen any info on this?

[Atlant]

11. These people definitely exist! I've met them!

These people definitely exist! I've met them, and some of them I
known for a long time, so I'm convinced they mean what they're
saying.

Atlant

[Atlant]

9. "Republicans" can't vote in the NH Dem primary, but...

In NEW HAMPSHIRE, "Republicans" can't vote in the Democratic Primary,
but people who are "Undeclared" can. I know; I am one. If an "Undeclared"
person takes a Democratic ballot, then "Poof!", they become enrolled
as a Democrat. But the moment they finish voting, they can re-enroll
as an "Undeclared" person.

("Democrats" can also vote in the Dem Primary, of course, and the
rules are symmetrical for the Republican Primary.)

You have until October 31st to switch your party affiliation.
After that, you're locked in.

On the other hand, unregistered but otherwise-elligible voters can
register on election day and take either a Democratic or Republican
Primary ballot.

There's always a lot of cross-over voting in NH primaries. (Otherwise,
why would I be undeclared? :evilgrin: )

Atlant

[poskonig]

8. All of the national polls are meaningless.

All that counts are NH and Iowa, which give the respective winners about 50 million in free airtime a piece to whupass on SuperTuesday.

[CMT]

10. in this poll Dean moved from third with 12%

to statistically tied for first with 17% since June. That's pretty good movement.