Is this fucker going to Category 5? Now 145 mph

[Goldmund]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100723
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23B...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...CORRECTED WIND SPEED TO 145 MPH IN REPEAT SECTION...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS WITH 145 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA
BEACH...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS
FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081749.shtml

[BeTheChange]

1. It hasnt made it past the 90F water yet...

Its going to hit cat 5.. now weather it stays cat 5 for landfall or not... dunno.

[Hissyspit]

2. The Gulf is wide open. That one last year lost steam (can't keep the names

straight now), but I definitely wouldn't count on it!

[alittlelark]

3. Damn... good thoughts to all in his path.

:grouphug:

[SoCalDem]

4. Infrared real time pic..wowweeeeee a hell of a storm

[Goldmund]

5. Woah, cool

I'll add it to the OP. :hi:

[whitebear]

6. revenge for the 2000 elections

I saw a documentary about global warming where they were featuring an eskimo village in northern Canada that was being slowly consumed by melting icecap water and the water was getting higher and higher every year.Of course no one cares about eskimos and whether they drown or not but now they are looking at global warming as a cause of the huge hurricane problems they're having out there in Florida.That's what it will take to get someone to do something about the problem,when rich white folks are inconveinenced.Not to say everybody out there is rich and white but I'm sure people will listen to them as opposed to the eskimos.

Of course no one knows for sure why there are so many hurricanes lately.:yourock:

[althecat]

7. Discussion indicates 5 a definite possibility

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/100913.shtml

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100303
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING.

....

THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405I_sm2+gif/092428P_sm.gif

[althecat]

8. Here's a new picture from nasa

[H5N1]

12. Even the photo blows me out of my chair

This is really something to watch.
I have never experienced winds higher than 90 mph,
and then only briefly.

[soup]

9. an advisory that includes the text

"AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON" from the NHS?!

Wow! They're usually so cut and dried.

edit to add thanks for the NASA pic. Hurricanes are gorgeous from the top side, aren't they?

[althecat]

11. Yeah.. I used that in my report on the hurricane just posted...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0507/S00125.htm

[althecat]

10. Latest Discussion Update From NHWC - Growing But Not Cat 5

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100913
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN DENNIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 KT. THIS IS BASED ON
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 139 AND 140 KT FROM A COUPLE
OF PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. DENNIS MAY UNDERGO AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH USUALLY RESULTS
IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SUGGEST ANY ENVIRONMENTAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES THAT COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... HOWEVER THE WATERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL AREAS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE
HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWETWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

PREDICTED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE
INCREASED INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 27.8N 86.1W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 29.6N 87.4W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0600Z 36.5N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/0600Z 38.0N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/0600Z 38.5N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0600Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. I have a huge knot in my stomach just thinking about this!

DU Floridians, please evacuate if you can and stay safe! :hug:

This is one scary hurricane! Not that ALL hurricanes aren't scary, but this thing is HUGE! Please, please stay safe.