Hurricane DENNIS Public Advisory

[steve2470]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/101258.shtml


000
WTNT34 KNHC 101513
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...CORRECTED TO ADD STATEMENT ABOUT INLAND PENETRATION OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN PARAGRAPH NINE...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DENNIS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR THE
CATEGORY THREE/FOUR THRESHOLD ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY
OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

[tsuki]

1. Winds are rising here. Unconfirmed report of loss of 10 feet of beach.

[unhappycamper]

12. Hey tsuki

Boston here. Hang in there & know that others around the country are praying for you. If you can, please post from time to time to let us know you're ok.

Peace,
uhc

[tsuki]

13. I've been without power until an hour ago. You want to see the

effects of global warming, come here. The beaches are disappearing, the sandbars are gone, the dolphins that don't beach themselves are gone, red algae is blooming everywhere, and the dead spots continue to grow.

Florida is disappearing 10' a storm from Miami to Pensacola.

The storm was the least of our problems here.

PS On edit, see ya in DC on the 24th.

[steve2470]

2. Hurricane DENNIS Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/101502.shtml


000
WTNT44 KNHC 101502
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

RECONNAISSANCE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS
CEASED. MOST RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...AND THE
HIGHEST RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 131 KT. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT.
ALTHOUGH DENNIS IS NOW MOVING OVER WATERS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT
CONTENT...IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORIES THREE
AND FOUR.

AFTER AN EARLIER NORTHWARD WOBBLE...DENNIS IS NOW BACK ON A
NORTH-NORTHWEST HEADING...340 DEGREES...BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED. THIS MOVES THE TIMING OF LANDFALL UP A FEW HOURS...TO
MID-AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE A COUPLE
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER
NORTHWARD JOG...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF A TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.7W 120 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 31.5N 87.8W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 11/1200Z 33.9N 88.8W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 12/0000Z 35.8N 89.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1200Z 38.5N 88.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/1200Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/1200Z 39.0N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

[annabanana]

3. be safe Gulf Coasters!

batten down and hold tight..
We want everybody safe and secure!

[HeeBGBz]

4. Dennis is pretty boring here in Gulfport

Am I missing something?

[annabanana]

7. map now

[steve2470]

5. Tallahassee radar

[steve2470]

6. Pensacola Beach camera photo

[XOKCowboy]

8. Good Luck You Guys

To everyone in Dennis's path. I was down that way last year and saw what Ivan and his pals did and it wasn't pretty.

So batten down, hold on and keep us apprised as to how it's going. We're with ya!

[steve2470]

9. another beach shot

[steve2470]

10. Storm-Weary Gulf Coast Residents Brace for Powerful Category 4 Hurricane D

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBM16NFZAE.html


FORT WALTON BEACH, Fla. (AP) - Hurricane Dennis closed in on the Gulf Coast on Sunday with battering waves and high wind after strengthening into a dangerous Category 4 storm, roaring toward a region still patching up damage from a hurricane 10 months ago.

More than 100 miles ahead of the eye of the storm, rain blew sideways and wind exceeded 45 mph in some spots Sunday morning and rolling waves pounded piers and beaches. Landfall was expected Sunday afternoon somewhere along the coast of the Florida Panhandle or Alabama in virtually the same spot as last year's Hurricane Ivan.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami has no record of a Category 4 storm ever hitting the Florida Panhandle or Alabama.

With nearly 1.4 million people under evacuation orders, some towns in the projected path were left almost deserted, and storm shelters were filling up in Mississippi, Florida and Alabama. More than 7,000 people were in shelters Sunday in Florida alone, and others headed to motels and relatives' homes.

<snip>

[steve2470]

11. latest radar