New Proposal for Hurricane Categories

[Walt Starr]

It's clear that from the results of Hurricane Dennis, the Saffir-Simpson scale is inadequate to describe these events any longer. Just before making landfall, this scale had Dennis at a Category 4 and it went down to a Category 3 as it made landfall.

What the Saffir-Simpson scale does measure is maximum sustained wind speed. This is inadequate to truly tell you the magnitude of the storm. Two more things must be taken into account. size of the Eye Wall and overall velocity of the storm itself. If we were to measure Dennis with something like this, at landfall Dennis would have been a 3-A-1. "3" because maximum sustained wind speeds were 120 mph. "A" because the eye wall was very small, and 1 because it moved very fast.

Sillimarly, Ivan would have been about a 3-B-3, causing far more destruction across a wider swath for a longer period of time.

Hopefully, meteorologists will pick up on something like this in the not too distant future, especially since we'll probably be seeing hurricanes more often with greater intensity.

[yvr girl]

1. We could also measure them by how many CNN reporters

are deployed to cover the story.

(You make valid points, I'm just a little tired of the orgy of coverage.)

[Walt Starr]

3. Well, if you hear "Dennis is currently a 4-A-1 Hurricane, and is expected

to drop to a 3-A-1 when it makes landfall." you'd know, "these guys are wasting their time for the most part."

Yeah, it's like a 20 mile wide F2 tornado hits, but realistically, the damaage is nowhere near as devestating as Andrew was, which was like a 40 mile wide F3 tornado ran for hours across south Florida.

[Wetzelbill]

4. you have a badass signature, Walt

really touching.

Oh, Andrew was a beast. I can't even comprehend something that powerful.

[Divernan]

2. Excellent idea - forward it to NOAA.

Given the increasing number of tropical storms/hurricanes, the time is certainly right to fine tune the forecasts. I would also appreciate some follow up coverage on the communities which are hit and how the recovery is progressing. Recently heard from a FEMA associate, that the projection is 7 to 10 years for the relief effort from last year's four hurricanes to hit Florida. Relief efforts for subsequent hurricanes will be "folded in" to the ongoing relief work.

[Squatch]

7. Increasing number of storms?

Hmmm...

[skids]

5. How about this system:

Category "Duck!"
Category "Run!"
Category "Run like Hell!"
Category "Plywood won't help you. You were stupid to ever move here!"

[Squatch]

6. "Size" of the eyewall?

What size? Extent of the eyewall into the atmosphere (height)? Eyewall to eyewall distance (diameter across the eye)? Max sustained windspeed at the eyewall?

I would consider another factor and that is barometric pressure, which causes the storm surge. A change in 1mb represents a rise or fall in sea level of 1cm.

[Walt Starr]

8. I was meaning diameter of the eyewall

to give an idea of the swath of damage cut by the storm. The eyewall on Dennis was not very wide. The one on Ivan was fairly wide, however, the Souther portion of it basically disappeared when it came on shore.

You are right about the pressure, though, and perhaps another scale could be thrown in for that. It would be especially helpful to combine the pressure data with the timing of landfall with respect to the tide as well.

[Squatch]

10. Something along these lines:

(These are from the Scripps Inst in Sand Diego, but the models can be applied elsewhere)

[Squatch]

11. Another cool graphic: pressure & wind speed

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42039&meas=wdpr&uom=E

[leftofthedial]

9. we also need a category to describe cable media coverage

"X" for ordinary media hurricane coverage--a 2 to 4 minute update 2 or 3 times per hour--an important story in the mix of coverage--suitable for telling the story and keeping the public informed.

"Y" for media coverage equivalent to that for a shark attack--coverage 14 to 20 minutes per hour for 4 to 14 days--suitable for distraction from minor scandals of the ruling class

"Z" for media coverage equivalent to a missing white girl in a tropical location--coverage for 40 to 60 minutes per hour, for 6 to 24 days--suitable for distraction from major scandals of the ruling class and/or implementation of a new cultural paradign (e.g., 9-11 "everything has changed")


These simple categories can help those of us in the rest of the country prepare our response and plan effectively.

[Javaman]

12. Here are the new Hurricane catagories....

A bit breezy.

Better tie down the lawn furniture.

I better get extra shingles.

The car is floating

I think I just saw the cat fly by the window.