Just my opinion, The Democratic race (long post)

[radfringe]

flame me if you want - here's how I see the race shaping up.. candidates are listed in alphabetical order and not by my preferences

Braun: Overall a good speaker, has good ideas, but she's not taken as a serious candidate. She does keep more than a few issues out in front and this is good.

Clark: Too early to place my bet. Upside of his entering the race is that he will attract moderate, independent and more than just a few conservatives. Downside, he took his time to declare his party affiliation and then more time to declare his candidacy - this could play as being indecisive or as someone who takes his time, considers the options/alertnatives before making a decision. He is new to the political game, it will be a few more weeks before we can tell if he is capable of playing the game.

Dean: For better or worse, Dean has shook up the Democratic party. His campaign has forced the other candidates to crawl out from the moderate and repug-lite swamp. I am wondering if he can keep it up or will he implode as the pressure grows.

Edwards: I don't think he will be able go the distance. His emphasis on being from the south, son of a working class family will only play so far. I think it is too early in his political career to have thrown his hat in the ring.

Gephardt: Too little noise too late. Trying to play both sides of the political fence at the same time. If he gets the nomination, I'll vote for him, but it won't be a pro-Gephardt vote it will be an anti-whistleass vote. Meanwhile, I think he'll be dropping out after New Hampshire.

Graham: Although he has good qualifications, I see him as being on the timid side, not much fire there to rally the support needed to get the nomination.

Kerry: When the candidates began to "unofficially" throw their hats into the ring, I had pegged Kerry for eventually getting the nomination. Now, I'm not so sure. I don't really understand what happened to his earlier momentum, but it's faded quite a bit. He's still in the running, but he will need to do some serious reconfiguring of his campaign.

Kuchinich: On the attack but not gaining ground. hate to say this, but the scuttlebutt in my neck of the woods is that Kuchinich is coming across as an angry garden gnome. He may make it to the Feb 3 primaries, but I think he'll drop out after that.

Lieberman: Repug-lite, trying too hard to attack the whistleass and still support a moderate/conservative agenda. He has moved to attack the other Dem candidates, but this is not playing well in Peoria. I seriously doubt he would take a second-seat as a VP candidate.

Sharpton: well, what can I say... He's the successor to Jesse Jackson. Making alot of noise, but I don't see him as a very viable candidate. he's shaping up to be a perrenial candidate for any available office

Horserace bet: going to be neck and neck between Dean and Clark. Kerry and Gephardt trailing on the inside rails. Alot is going to depend on future events (i.e. the economy tanking or not, Iraq-mess, terra-lerts/attacks etc.)
The underlying current is not which Democratic Candidate has the best agenda/appeal or which is most likely to be able to beat the whistleass. The underlying current is how bad will the Whistleass screw up and allow the doors to be flung wide open for a change. The 2004 election is the whistleass's to lose

[radfringe]

1. kick

[cherryperry]

2. Basically, I agree with you, but

(you just knew there was going to be a but (no, not a butt!) coming, now didn't you?) my dream ticket is still

KUCINICH/CLARK

Go ahead, call me crazy <<<CRAZY!>>> ... okay, that will do!


:pals:

:grouphug:


:kick: :kick:

[radfringe]

3. I don't really have a dream ticket

although I really like the idea of Clark in the VP slot

My "pipe" dream would be to see some repug get up the guts to challenge the whistleass for the nomination

one comment in the "guestbook" of my webpage: Bush has just torn up every thing we have worked for in this country. You name it and he has torn it down. He is not from the party of my father and I used to vote for, the GOP. Where is he coming from and what is he doing to my country?Another 4 years and what will we have left or a once pretty good country?

there are alot of republicans/conservatives out there that are dissatisfied with the whistleass, but are not ready to vote Democratic...

even if a republican challenges the whistleass for the nomination and loses - the media attention to this would wake up more people...

[PATRICK]

4. You underrate Edwards

but your view is typical of his current status below the radar. Like the fast horse that gets crowded out of the front. Then you use the oversimplified "unready" line.

I am no Nostradamus but it appears none of the top will give up easily. The crowded quality might mean a real contest as frontrunners are stopped or falter. This especially will be the case if the second string score victories or good shares(Gephardt, Lieberman, Kucinich) and thus denies the frontrunner status much clout. And they keep their delgates for influence. The longer the sure losers with some followings last, the more probable is a brokered convention. If Kerry fights back Dean and destroys his momentum. If Clark keeps gaining. If Edwards wins over the people while the others are chewing at each other... Then someone had better start our famous numbers crunching game about the "magic number".

If someone like Edwards sees he can't make it I am sure he would be one to bow and toss the crown to the leader in exchange for consideration. He will be unemployed after all. That should happen before all the Southern states vote or California. If Clark flounders and Kerry picks up...Well I can't see the General surrendering although he would have logical excuses. Kerry is exceptional but as a pro maybe he would see his own chance to bow and broker to someone of his choosing before the big states are over.

I think it does lean right now to Dean vs. Clark and whose camps they can win over from the other candidates. The unknown to me is Kerry's views about Clark, whom he must know professionally more than does Dean. I don't think he would be quick to endorse anyone. I think Edwards would go to Clark, if it meant anything, and for several reasons. Gephardt would seek the one who was best for his agenda proposals(and they are good). Clark would need to work for that since gephardt is quite legislatively polished.

Dean's lone wolf, "almost" frontunner, status may hurt him logistically in the long run more than any policy stands unless he can keeps Clark well behind.

My best guess is actually Clark(I am not personally decided on him myself), but he will have to earn it. Or Dean, Kerry or Edwards. Otherwise no one gets the magic number and it goes to the convention and there it will depend how many friends Dean has among the governors and state officials. The Washington crowd won't carry Kerry or Gep. Exciting the delegates will be key and even more anguished debates about electability than at DU, which itself resembles a convention crowd in the ranks. Clark's lack of political experience will have to overcome bigtime. And that is where the other guys play kingmaker. Out of a brokered convention where no candidate has shown the weight to put away his competition? I'd say advantage Clark granted his "golf handicap" as a newcomer, IF he can manage the strategy.

I am sure we will have some surprises in store. I hope they are not because of Lieberman.

Sheesh what a senseless ramble.