Can Dean beat Bush?

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

Let's say Dean wins the primary. Which states can Dean win against Bush in 2004? What sorts of swing voters will Dean pick up? How will he do in the South? Which states will he easily win, NY, CA, NJ? Which states will he lose, TX, AL? Which demographics will Dean win, and which will he lose? I expect his pro-gun rights stand will help in some rural states? Would Dean clean up women's votes in large numbers?

[AmeriCanadian]

1. I really don't think so, but Clark could

... n/t

[CMT]

8. I agree that maybe Clark could run better than Dean in the south

but I gotta tell you there are a lot of liberal democrats and progressives out there and I've talked to many who are not too hip on Clark. I know some past Nader supporters who will "reluctantly" vote for Dean but not Clark--why? they don't trust a military man as president and one who only recently was promoting Reagan. So I'm wondering if whatever gains Clark may make in the south may be offset by losses in states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnestoa, Oregon, Washington--states which got a large Nader vote in 2000.

[ThomWV]

22. I do not agree

Virtually every person who I have talked to who is willing to admit that they voted for Nader last time around has indicated to me that they would vote for the Democratic Candidate no matter who it was this time around and several have indicated that Clark would be their choice.

What I have not seen is any reluctance to vote for a man who was career military. I think that point, the military background, has just as little meaning today as being a Catholic did for JFK back November of 1959, it simply became a non issue when people stepped into the ballot booth.

[bitchkitty]

32. Greens for Clark?

You'll excuse me, but that sounds like a total fantasy.

[bitchkitty]

38. Again, can you

provide some kind of link to support that there are "Greens for Clark?" "Several of them indicated to me" sounds like b.s., frankly.

[goobergunch]

2. Yes (n/t)

[CMT]

3. latest poll

indicates Dean is doing as well as Clark and Kerry (all behind Bush by ten-points according to Zogby) and slightly better than Lieberman and Gep (they are 12-points behind). Other polls differ, but they are all in the thick of it.

I think the south can be cracked by any of our leading candidates. The loss of manufacturing jobs has really hit several southern states. I think also Dean's gun stand helps in some states. I think Dean can carry West Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, and possibly Tennessee. If he has Edwards, Clark, or Graham as a running mate it helps as well.

I consider Missouri more of a midwest state than a southern state and I think that Dean can carry that state, he is currently a strong second in polls to Gep in that state.

However, I think Dems (including Dean) will pick up electoral votes in the west--the poll showing only 34% of Arizonians wanting Bush "re-elected" was very promising. I think we can pick up or have the possiblility of picking up Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and outside chance of Montana.

I also think we are going to target Ohio in 2004.

Yes, Dean can win and so can the rest of them.

[FubarFly]

23. And another thing:

Military cuts and gun control gets Democrats killed in the South.

Clark has promised both.

I think Dean will do better than people think in the South, because he is better positioned on these two key issues.

Not to say Clark will do bad. But by no means is he a sure thing.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

36. Don't just post the bat, link it!

So people can click on it and donate.

If you want, you can link it to my fundraising site at http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1318480

[DoveTurnedHawk]

4. Dean Can Win, But He Will Have a Tougher Time in the South

That is another reason why I love Clark: he is a Southerner, and that matters a lot more to some Southerners than the converse proposition does to most Northerners.

DTH

[Classical_Liberal]

11. Didn't seem to help Gore!

. That fact alone, makes your case not very compelling.

[jumptheshadow]

15. Not necessarily

Gore was carrying Clinton's baggage and didn't have Clark's charismatic personality.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

18. Two Things

One, are you honestly trying to say that Southerners will have a WORSE chance than non-Southerners in the South? Every little bit helps, if for no other reason than forcing Bush to spend more in the South.

Two, Gore was NOT perceived as a Southerner any more, he had "gone native" in Washington. That's why he lost his HOME STATE, even despite his last ditch effort to re-Southernize himself by moving his campaign headquarters to Tennessee.

DTH

[KaraokeKarlton]

17. Southerners care about the same things everyone else does

They care about a balanced budget, education, health care, jobs and the environment. For the life of me, I don't know why so many people think southerners are like some alien lifeform. Dean will do just fine in the south. He's doing well in the SC polls from what I've seen. People need to stop all the analyzing and nit picking and just appreciate a damn great candidate.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

24. I've Read Electoral Studies and Polls

It is well-established that Southerners are more apt to vote for other Southerners at a rate significantly higher than the converse proposition.

DTH

[w4rma]

25. IMHO, it is better described as a rural vs. urban divide.

Note, the South generally consists of the most rural states in the Union. Note, Dean governed a rural state.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

26. But That's Not What the Studies Have Shown

It's not a question of, "Hmm, I'll vote for this rural candidate over this urban candidate." It's a question of a New England "liberal" versus a Southern "moderate" (I am ascribing the media spin, not the actual positions because IMO, Clark is at least slightly more liberal than Dean).

I would also point out that Clark is from a Southern rural state, and even more importantly, he has a military background and actually fought in battle, two other factoids which have demonstrated themselves to be of greater relevance to Southern voters than non-Southern voters.

DTH

[w4rma]

37. I don't think the studies have shown that at all (n/t)

[Blue_Chill]

5. How would Dean be seen by swing voters on issues like National Security?

Republicans win that issue without having to even say anything on the subject. Clark has no problem on this issue being that he had 4 stars. Dean however......

[Eloriel]

19. All Dean has to do -- and he's been doing it --

is point out that we are NOT safer. The Iraq war has made us less safe; Homeland Security hasn't been properly funded; ports aren't being inspected; on and on. Everyone imagines that Bush is good on national defense. It couldn't be farther from the truth. All that's needed for people to understand the obvious is to have it pointed out to them.

Someone who supported this war and this CINC isn't a better choice. Someone who can see clearly, who hasn't waffled, who correctly identifies other aspects of national policy that impact defense (energy, fair trade) and has a plan for them can do much better than Clark.

Besides, Dean never had anyone tell him, "I'm not starting WW3 for you, General."

Eloriel

[Blue_Chill]

33. good response but

Dean has to break a stereotype and bitching about what Bush did won't do it. After all, that's what all policiticians do. Why should anyone believe him?

That is the mind set of the American swing voter.

Clark on the other hand has no such problems. And the statement of WW3 has already been explained on many threads. Get over it, Dean is nothing special.

[Padraig18]

6. Unless our nominee is caught in bed...

... with a dead girl or a live boy, IL will be a BLOWOUT win for the Dems! :)

[JVS]

7. Yes he can

[Classical_Liberal]

9. Easily

He doesn't agree with Bush on policy and doesn't trust him and will say so.

[w4rma]

10. Maybe Dean is the only one who can win against Bush in 2004.

Are the other nine Democratic presidential candidates riding Dean's coattails in polls against Bush?

Dean has been the most consistant and outspoken critic of the Bush administration of the Democratic candidates. Bush's polling numbers have been dropping ever since Dean begin being taken seriously by the media as a candidate. Unlike the other candidates (not including Clark who has only been in the race for a few days) most or all of Dean's attacks have been either direct or indirect attacks on the Bush administration.

...
When asked which Democratic candidate was doing the best job presenting his or her plans for the country and explaining how those plans differ from President Bush’s, voters say Dean is the candidate doing the best at making his case (13 percent), but a plurality says “none” (19 percent) of the candidates are explaining their positions and 35 percent are unsure.
...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,98328,00.html

Are the other nine Democratic candidates riding Dean's coattails?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=417033

[populistmom]

12. Enough people are no longer falling for the Repub BS

Therefore, I think many of them could beat Bush. I think Dean is about as progressive as the masses will accept, so Dean's my guy.
Remember, as always, it's the economy, stupid.

[KaraokeKarlton]

13. There's no way Bush can beat Dean

Here's why...

1) Dean has attracted tons of new voters who will DEFINITELY vote for him. They might not support anyone else, though.

2) A lot of people who voted Green last time have learned not to vote for Nader for president unless they want Republicans in power.

3) Dean is appealing to many moderate Republicans and swing voters as well as the gun rights people who would normally vote Democratic if it weren't for gun issues. So, Dean will take some voters away from Bush. No one else can do that on the same level Dean can.

So, if Democrats just vote for Dean in the general election, there is NO WAY IN HELL that Bush can win. The above reasons are also why Dean is the MOST electable out of all candidates. Add that Dean was a governor and the tendency of Americans to vote for governors over Senators and all facts point to Dean being "The One".

[w4rma]

16. Bush will have $200+ million to smear the Democratic candidate with

This is a world record for the most campaign spending of any candidate, ever. Bush is breaking the record he set in 2000 when he raised and spend ~$100 million.

No Democratic candidate will come close to this. Campaign finance matching funds spending limits are set at ~$45 million. In 2000 Al Gore accepted matching funds and limited his spending to ~$40 million.

Please don't underestimate what at $200 million ad campaign has the potential to do to a Democratic candidate, any Democratic candidate.

[JohnKleeb]

20. They are gonna smear anyone who gets the nod

Just watch even if Lieberman gets it, they will call him a "liberal". Thats why and my bad for the branch but people say oh Kucinich they will have all these things to say like you know their attack techniques well my response is they are gonna do it to everyone. You know what Shrub money is? Its corporate money :puke:

[KaraokeKarlton]

21. In case you haven't noticed...

Everytime anyone tries to "smear" Dean, it has the opposite result of what the "smearer" had hoped for. Let Bush try to smear Dean, and Dean will only get stronger. He is NOT like other candidates. He has the biggest and strongest natural shit repellent out there. Whatever is thrown at him is easily deflected and lands square on the face of the one who threw it. The WORST thing for anyone to do while competing with Dean is to attack or smear him. It never works with him and the one doing it always comes out the loser.

[jumptheshadow]

14. I think he can win

However, with Dean as the nominee, we're going to have to 1) see a continuation of the surge of negative events for Bush & Co. (and logically, that is quite a realistic scenario) and 2) we must work very, very hard. The party must unite. That means some of the Deanies will have to develop greater political maturity and be willing to see the perspectives of other Democrats.

Jobs, the economy, the war, the Patriot Act, guns and national security will be our top issues. Americans will probably be open to fresh concepts. Dean's ideas are better than Bush's and will probably appeal to the electorate. If I were Dean I would probably huddle with the other Democratic candidates and incorporate some of their position papers into his own. We have some very creative minds on our bench.

Dean vs. Bush on national security will be a negative for our side unless the General is running. We also won't have the option of attacking Bush's AWOL record because Dean's Vietnam exemption seems pretty dicey.

We also must look beyond the Presidential election. Can Dean carry Congressional seats on his coattails? At this point I don't see Dean the presidential candidate being compelling enough to energize swing voters and add to our ranks in Congress.

[Zuni]

27. Yes

I think with growing disillusinment with Bush, dean could pick up a lot of votes.

Only 6 months ago Dean was an unknown. Now he is a national phenomenon.

[Zuni]

28. If Bush doesn't have a great turn around in his fortunes

Al Sharpton could win in a landslide.

[Pepperbelly]

29. probably he could win ...

So could Clark.

[realFedUp]

30. Yes

I don't think Bush is and will be competition next year
for most of the Dems because we'll all get together and
vote for the nominee and his VP. Unless the Bushies
rig any more elections, it's ours.

[bearfartinthewoods]

31. another circle jerk

it's a year out.........who knows?

who knows where bush's weakness will be next year.

[RobertFrancisK]

34. I think it's possible

But it would be really really close. He wouldn't beat Bush by much at all.

[paulk]

35. it depends on the economy

if the economy stays in the toilet or gets worse, Dean wins. If the focus of the campaign shifts to national security, Dean will be in trouble.

Dean will need a southern VP to pick up votes in the south.