Good morning.... and where is TS Franklin headed today....

[althecat]

According to GFS, BAM and UKMET nowhere fast...



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0605I_sm2+gif/084540P_sm.gif

[goclark]

1. Not another?!

Help me understand, is all of this because of global warming or what?

[DemoTex]

2. What's with the westerly plot from BAM Medium?

That doesn't make sense. BAM (yellow) shows a Florida landfall in 48 hours and all others show the steering currents sending Franklin out to sea.

[althecat]

3. I think that's the track... and that it isn't yellow

[DemoTex]

5. Must be my screen. Sure looks yellow to me.

What color do you see? Also, do you mean that you think TS Franklin will follow the BAM path prediction into the east coast of Florida?

[althecat]

6. Those maps show forecasts out to 5 days.. the GFS BAM and UKMET..

.. are virtually stationary over that period... it seems possible that this storm is therefore either going to stay where it is or even go in another direction to that forecast....

..

[Walt Starr]

4. Iteresting fact about tropical storm systems

The water temperature is lowered by them. Nature's water coolers.

[althecat]

7. I know but we had one last year that went in a small loop

admittedly to the south of where this one presently is

[Jane Eyre]

8. Global warming

There was a report recently, I think on CNN, which credited the warming of the oceans by 1-2 degrees as the cause of the earlier and nastier storms that we are getting. The waters warm up earlier in the year which means that the hurricanes start brewing earlier.

[althecat]

11. This is true.... hurricane's are convective motors powered by ocean heat

[althecat]

9. Some comment from the experts... another three TS in the wings...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I don't have much to add on Franklin; it is gradually strengthening and beginning to resemble a real tropical storm as it moves away from the shear that was hurting it earlier today. It's still anyone's guess where Franklin will go, and I won't speculate on this more until later. It is interesting to watch the storm's progress on Melbourne Florida's long range radar.

[althecat]

10. Advisory says may already be a hurricane

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0605W_sm2+gif/144539W_sm.gif

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATE FRANKLIN
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED...POSSIBLY
EVEN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A DROPSONDE REPORT AT 1337Z MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 59 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE FLIGHT
CREW HAS BEEN ESTIMATING 60-65 KT WINDS...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS STILL ABOVE 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE
HIGHER SINCE FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/08...BASED ON THE PAST 9 HOURS OF
RECON FIXES. THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COLD CDO CLOUD SHIELD AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW
APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS MOST OF ITS ENERGY FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY 5-10 WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
...EXCLUDING THE MUCH FASTER GFS AND GFDL MODELS...NOW SLOWS DOWN
FRANKLIN THROUGH 72 HOURS AND EITHER DISSIPATED THE CYCLONE OR
WAITS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND
ACCELERATE IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF
THE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNS
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRANKLIN REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WITH A
WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WIND FIELD. AS SUCH...SMALL CHANGES IN THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY. GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS THAT HAS DEFIED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY GO ON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOVE 995 MB IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...INCRESING NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD INDUCE SOME SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 29.4N 75.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 73.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.7N 72.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 32.3N 66.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 63.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 59.0W 40 KT

$$