Is the Economy on the Rebound? (And Other Questions)

[Composed Thinker]

There has been some good news, but isn't it fair to say that the GDP is way up mostly because of military spending? Do you think that consumer spending will continue to rise?

[barbaraann]

1. God, no.

With one exception I can think of - Toyota hybrid cars.

[AmeriCanadian]

2. My company began hiring again last month too

... And plan to increase headcount the first of 2004. They've recalled two friends of mine that were laid off one year ago.

... Let's hope there's a huge turn-around nationwide in employment and the economy.

... Keep hoping for the best!

[bearfartinthewoods]

11. there are help wanted signs and ads around here too.

the company my brother works for is offering employees a 500 dollar bounty for anyone they bring in that is hired and lasts through probation.

[AmeriCanadian]

14. ... Sounds a bit like recovery to me!

... Keep your fingers crossed. In the mean time, if you can hire to help your business; Do so!

[diplomats]

3. How is consumer confidence doing?

I know economists are expecting strong third-quarter growth but it will have to be consumer-driven because second-quarter growth was mostly due to the Iraq war, as you say.

[AmeriCanadian]

4. Housing is on a rebound in my area, that's always a good ...

... indicator, which is perculiar in sorts, because interest rates are up over this time last year. Also, a friend of mine that manages an auto dealership here, says orders for potential 2004 models are higher than he has seen in 10 years.

... Let's all hope for the best!

[lcordero]

5. I wouldn't say that it's on a rebound

A lot of businesses overreacted and cut back way too far.

[RichM]

6. There's a weak rebound, due largely to military spending, & refinancing

due to low interest rates. The rates themselves are low ONLY BECAUSE the economy is so weak. There is still great overcapacity, thus it is not really possible that there could be a sustained period of growth.

The federal budget outlook is extremely dangerous. The trade deficit is, as well. This latter thing can put great pressure on the dollar, and if the dollar drops hard, it may cut off foreign financing of the budget deficit. This would produce much higher interest rates, & collapse the US (& thus the world) economy.

Ironically, the very direness of the situation is one of the things preventing the worst from happening. Central banks of other countries know that if they all decide to dump the dollar (which also means cutting net purchases of T-bills & notes), they could precipitate a global crisis that would spin out of control. They don't desire that outcome themselves -- & so are hesitant to embark on massive dollar dumping.

[Nikia]

7. Used cars are cheap around here

Especially sports and luxury cars, selling for way below their list value. They are much cheaper than they were a few years ago. I think that is a sign of people being desperate for cash.

[AmeriCanadian]

8. Not sure about that, generally if ...

... used cars sell cheaply, it's because folks are moving up.
Usually, the only time used cars are in demand (read as inflated prices) are when times are tough and folks need to hold on to them.

[sandnsea]

9. It's settling

Into the same drudgery we had during the Reagan/Bush years. 6% unemployment, just enough to keep people on edge and accept lower wages and benefits, but not enough for them to totally revolt.

The GDP is mostly military spending and spending on products they need to rebuild Iraq. But alot of other stuff is down like cars and food even. Consumer spending in August was pretty bad and I can tell you September isn't much better from my own business. Gas prices are really hurting everything.

It seems there are only two points economists can use to 'claim' a rebound. GDP which is bullshit because it's military spending, but people don't know it. And inventory is down which I think means goods are being sold instead of just produced. The housing market is the housing market, whether it's a bubble or not remains to be seen.

Drudgery, just like in the 80's. That's the way I see it if we don't get Bush the hell out of office.

[AmeriCanadian]

10. Well it's better than getting worse!

... Sheese! At least it's improving for my friends, neighbors and the ones I love.

[Starpass]

12. I predict that holiday sales will again be dismal

which will start off '04 with "mental depression" setting in. So much is "in the mind" as far as investment and purchasing, etc. That means things will keep dragging. When the Congress hands over 87 billion it will have a very depressing mind effect on the nation. I've also been very interested in the alaysists saying that the recession ended in Nov. of '01 but if things were going to 'turn around' we would be seeing a much stronger job market by now. They fear that since that just is not happening but sinking further that any of those positive indicators will belly out and stall by the first of next year and kill what's been going on. Maybe George needs to give another speech and reassure us......hahahahahahaha

[haymaker]

13. Good pal of mine, and Wharton grad says

the market has run its upward course. He manages millions of retirement dollars so he's no fool. Says the P/E ratios are back to where they were in 2000. Not good news. The reason is that even after muy, muy mucho cuts in costs (jobs), the earnings have just not come around and the run-up is probably over.