The People Are NOT Going to Vote on the Basis of What Dems Say..

[Starpass]

As much as I adore listening to our candidates, when the non-political masses vote in Nov. '04 they will not vote on the basis of 'our message'; they will vote on the basis of either a) how much they hate Bush or b)how much they love/apethetic about Bush. Gore won; but neither Al nor Georgie had to run against an incumbent and these polls today are not only meaningless, they are discouraging.

There have been many a president who was lower than Bush's numbers during their first term, going into elections, and not only came back to win but to win by a landslide. The discouraging part is that after all of the garbage of this administration that has cummulated into even a lied-about war and deaths of so many, we still have basically 50% of this nation liking/supporting him......that is a cakewalk for him since he has yet to begin to fight. The people WILL listen to the Dem message IF they hate Bush; they will not listen if they either like Bush or aren't particularly bothered by him. That's why I can't stress something enough to these candidates and to the DNC.

I know these guys are running against each other in a primary and have to attack one another. They need to limit that right now to ads and town hall meetings in the early primary states BUT keep it off of our rare opportunities on national tv---be that debates, interviews, etc. When asked about "issue X", they need to present their proposal, compare it to Bush and beat Bush over the head with it. Our first goal is that we need to get Bush to 35% by next summer (38-39) won't do. If he now is only at about 50% after all his administration has done, I don't see that he will fall much further. What could he do??---really, to top the murdering he's already done. He will wait until re-elected to go back to Congress for the next 100 billion installment for Iraq and will deny that he will do so all through the campaign. Thus, we need to beat on him so brutally that thoughts of pure disgust and hatred for Bush are the norm in people's minds come this time next year. We need that as a base before they are going to listen to our message. We need to remove him as a contender so we can mount the soap box.

[Abe Linkman]

1. Lot more reasons why people vote the way they do.

"they will vote on the basis of either a) how much they hate Bush or b)how much they love/apethetic about Bush."

Too many reasons you left out, to list here.

[diplomats]

4. I think the point Starpass was making is

the 2004 election will be a referundum on Bush, because he's the incumbent. It's always that way when a sitting prez runs for another term.

[bearfartinthewoods]

11. yes....the election is always the president's to lose

in many ways we are held in the grip of history. will the economy continue to recover enough to create jobs? will iraq settle or erupt?

nothing we can even hope for there. it's almost out of our hands in many ways. that's why i think any dem we nominate will either beat him or not. so maybe we role the dice and go for the best dem we can?

i don't know if there is that much courage.

[Kahuna]

18. Yepper! That's the way it goes. However,

those who are disenchanted with bush will consider, "the lesser of two evils." They will either stay home of vote for the lesser of two evils.

[gibbyman]

2. Amen

Amen Brother

[newyawker99]

20. Hi gibbyman!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[diplomats]

3. Other presidents were lower than Bush is now

at this point in their first terms (Reagan and Clinton) and went on to win. But when they won, their approval rating was considerably over 50 percent. If Bush is at 50 percent going into Nov. '04 he won't blow out anybody, but he still would have a good shot at winning. I, too, would feel more comfortable if he were in the low or mid-40s. That still may happen.

[Starpass]

7. ..that's why I want these guys to go even further and expand even

further on their attacks on Bush........I really want people to equate Bush with Liar by next summer. I want them to feel that Bush is "anti-them". We need to get that across to about 50% of the nation before they will turn and say, "soooo, what the hell are you selling; I might just be interested". For example, if you are upset about your property taxes and someone is having a "meeting" to talk about the disgust people are feeling, you will go and you will listen. By the same token, if those property taxes don't bother you much, you will never bother listening. Bush has the advantage. He's a known commodity and 50% still like the commodity. We have to get people hating the commodity and wanting "their money back".

[gristy]

5. I agree

Especially that the dems need to try much harder to lay off each other. Sharpton's props to Clark in the last debate is an example of what we need more of.

"Don't be defensive about just joining the party... It's better to be a new Democrat that's a real Democrat, than a lot of old Democrats up here that have been acting like Republicans all along."

on edit: ooops. My bad. While giving Clark support, he was actually dissing other candidates. Not so good, then. I need to read more carefully...

[poskonig]

6. Interesting post.

I believe you are right on the money.

[Starpass]

10. posk--when I said about "expanding the message"

Even though I'm a Clark supporter, I noticed with glee that Dean now has taken it to the point of calling for Rummy and Wolfewitz's removal. THAT is what I'm talking about. They really as a group have got to go that far in their disgust. If they don't, then their disgust seems "same old, same old" with no real meat. They literally should be calling also for Powell (and his grad paper) and Rice and her lying to go also. They should even talk "impeachment" because we have his numbers down, so there are half the people in this country who would agree that "something has to be done about these bastards". They can't let the attacks just remain at the level they are presently at and Howard was smart enough to know that. They have to level so many charges against Bush that Rove just doesn't know where to turn next to kill the story. God knows, they have plenty of ammo...and now is the time to shoot it!!!!!!!!!

[Brucey]

8. Interesting ideas,

I think we can't pin down any one or two things that will defeat the Chimp. The electoral college will still be a problem. Rigged voting will be another. The repugs will constantly use terror and fear to convince voters not to choose a Dem, and that will work on a lot of people. A very good Dem candidate will still have problems... as you have pointed out... it's a referendum on the incumbency to some extent. The economy will go against Chimpy, the environment not enough people care, civil rights will go our way, but the macho vote goes to the chimp because he killed a lot of Arabs. Tough election. Could be another nail biter, although this time he has the incumbency. I very much doubt that his approval rating will drop below about 46 or 47 or 48%. I am very certain of that. However, if we can get it down there, then we have a shot. Another problem: the rich will artificially drive up the stock market before the election so it looks like the economy is brightening and the repugs will argue that we shouldn't switch horses with a boom coming. Well, what else?

[markbark]

14. Well then...

Quoth the poster: Another problem: the rich will artificially drive up the stock market before the election so it looks like the economy is brightening and the repugs will argue that we shouldn't switch horses with a boom coming.

If this is the case, then it is important that the Dems hammer home the concept of the "Doug Jones Average" (thx, Molly Ivans! :) )

The stock market is immaterial. The idea that needs propagating is that if the companies are making more money (while moving both jobs and capital overseas) it does nothing to help the average Joe, and thus the country at whole.

--MAB



(on edit - fixed typos)

[w4rma]

9. I fully agree, Starpass (n/t)

[TexasEditor]

12. How will Bush handle this?

"Are you better off today than you were four years ago?"

Don't put so much into poll standings, people's livelihoods and futures are at stake.

I don't know one person, Dem, GOP or otherwise, who wants to see him "re-elected."

[jumptheshadow]

13. Political strategies

It was heartening to see Dean come out with a statement about the CIA investigation today. Hopefully he will crank up the volume and thump Rove with this issue. I'd like to see a committee launched that raises money to buy commercials hammering home the sordid facts about the "outing" of the CIA agent. The mission: To erode Bush's national security credibility, and to tarnish his self-righteous patriotic veneer.

I suspect Clark will be a part-time anti-Bush advocate until he completes his position papers. Then I wouldn't be surprised to see an extremely aggressive campaign from him, war-planned to inflict maxium damage to Bush's credibility with his base.

And notice Clark's use of the word "nutty" at the New Hampshire meeting to describe a Bush policy. Remember the great audience reaction it got. It's like the RW threw a boomerang by insinuating that Clark was a head case, and Clark, in return, worked a wind machine to route the weapon right back at Bush's head. Clark knows how to fight. We're going to see some drama in the next few months.

The Dems have already started to battle Bush head-on. The economy is horrible, and even if it starts to recover, a lot of people will still be digging out next year. The awful Iraq situation doesn't promise to get any better. The middle class is beginning to realize just how devastating Bush's horrendous fiscal policies have been to their pocketbooks. The U.N. trip was a debacle, and our only ally Tony Blair is at the brink. With a concerted message and the right battle plan, the Democrats can do major political damage to Bush.

[Starpass]

16. I think we need in addition to the candidate ads

running in primary states, ads that point to all sorts of Bush crap banging in their ears. What I mean is that if we do this gradually state by state we can start already making more people sick of this asshole instead of waiting until after the convention to start doing nationwide hits on Bush. It needs to start now on smaller time budgets hitting that bash Bush message in Iowa and NH and then moving southward. Surely we can get enough money as a party to do this slowly during the whole primary season.

[einsteins stein]

15. Actuall, the polls show that after a few years, and huge popularity...

Bush actually has less than, or the same support he had whenheentered office.

Don't see this as the beginning of a Bush campaign, see it as the end of a Bush term. look at all the numbers, and it is insiring.

Remember, Dems haven't even selected a challenger, and we are still better off than the shrub.

[Starpass]

17. einstein--two things

and then I have to run. First (and I'm an old Poly Sci grad) once we name a candidate for sure, Bush's numbers will rise to one extent or the other. Right now they don't like Bush but a certain number will look at our candidate and say "I don't like him either" and return to Bush---it will be interesting to see if Bush gets like 5 points on that or like 15 points which is more common...unfortunately. Secondly, as I pointed out--we have come as far as a bogus war that's killed our GI's etc, and still 50% of the people stand with him. How do you top murder to have your numbers fall even more???----god, at least Regan, Clinton didn't go to this extent in killing people, etc. and their numbers did a tumble during their first terms. This isn't much for him to overcome, unfortunately. Therefore, we have to by screaming into people's ears, if necessary, get this bastard's numbers down about 15 points before next summer. They are not going to continue to drop like you see now unless something really hits between his eyes---perhaps the CIA investigation regarding "outing" Wilson's wife will do the trick. If not, we better hope we can prove that he runs a sex slave operation at Camp David!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KoKo]

19. Starrpass.......You're Clean! (language, lol's) anyway you have a point...

but what can we do constructively to get his poll numbers down further...and to increase the Amercian Outrage at this dreadful excuse for a Pres.?

Look at the Ohio poll numbers on DU posted today.....People of Ohio.....recognize Clinton, Gore and a "little" Kucinich......but the rest of our candidates are not on their radar!

They aren't hurting in Ohio...according to those polls.....they still think Bush is not great....but okay.

Until Bush "implodes himself" what can we do.....??

Stay after his legilation ......and phone, fax, call our Senators and House Members.....to make sure the Chimp's "Project for American Reformation....get's trashed with LOTS of OUTCRY from his Fundie/Repug folks.

Otherwise....our hands are tied.....

[PAMod]

21. Make it "common knowledge" that the Bushies have got to go

The masses must be swayed (to the extent possible) to see that this bunch in Washington is uncool and bad for america.

I say "uncool" because there are a lot of sheeple on that level where they view politics as something other than serious, as if it only effects them in the abstract.

They are the type that choose Toby Keith over Barbra Streisand or Dixie Chicks not because they prefer the music, but because it is uncool or unamerican to like the Chicks.

If we can get people like that to turn on Bush, we'll get him down in the mid thirties.