My prediction is that Clark will be the Dem nominee

[Mountainman]

I have no favorite candidate at this time so this is not a pro Clark post so please no flames.

My reasoning is this, national security will be the most important issue because the rethugs can usually claim the upper hand there.

All Dems beat the rethugs when it comes to domestic issues.

His being a general will makes people feel that he is the most qualified Dem in that area. All other issues will fall somewhere behind national security. No other Dem can take on the repukes like he can in the national security area.

[ramblin_dave]

1. Too early to say

Dean and Clark and the others will go through the primary and caucus process. Most people aren't paying attention yet.

[janekat]

2. I wish you were right - but what happens is that the voters in the

primaries tend to be "further to the left" and it looks like Dean is going to win. I like Dean but I have a very strong feeling tht he will not have a chance at all in the General Election.

[Kahuna]

32. It's a little different this time. Usually the lefties..

generate momentum for their candidate. Which has been true in the case of Dean. For the time being Dean's momentum is stalled with the introduction of Clark into the mix. Also Kerry is doing a little better. I don't know how the momentum will swing in the next month or two. But whomever gets the most momentum in the polls will emerge as the nominee. Right now it's a toss up between Dean and Clark.

[poskonig]

3. Analysis:

In order for Clark to win, he needs to take Iowa or NH. NH is in Kerry and Dean's backyard, and Iowa requires a lot of organizational muscle to win.

One could try to make a stand in South Carolina, for instance, but I wouldn't recommend it. On February third, the winner(s) of NH and Iowa will get 50-100 million in free airtime going into February 3rd, which includes primaries in North Dakota, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Delaware, South Carolina, and Missouri.

Dean has the organization and the fundraising and is even running ads in states like New Mexico as we speak. This doesn't rule a victory for Team Clark out, but they certainly have their work cut out for them.

Since Clark is a good Democrat, if we believe the supporters, we'll probably see him in the next administration as a VP or Secretary of Defense if he doesn't win the nomination. We better get used to seeing him.

[Renew Deal]

7. No he doesn't.

C'mon, look at past elections.

88 Gep took Iowa Dukakis nominated
92 Tsongas took NH, Harkin took Iowa- Clinton nomination
96 Forbes took NH (or Buchanan) Dole
2000 McCain in NH Bush wins it.

Besides that, I think Clark can win NH. He is the type of candidate that wins NH. They love underdogs. They love being different, and they love truth (Clark).

[poskonig]

8. The primaries are stacked so close this year, campaigns need at least

one from NH and Iowa. Before the process was long and dragged out; this year it will not be that way. I believe most, if not all, of the campaign managers are cognizant of this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. You Forgot Pat Buchanan Beat Papa Bush in NH in 92

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Clinton Lost IA and NH

and spinned it that he won because he beat expectations....

This race is way too early to call....

[Pepperbelly]

10. I disagree on strategy and tactics ...

I think that a 3rd place showing in NH and Iowa would be as good as a 2nd place win in one and a lower than 3rd in the other. He is already surging ahead in South Carolina. If he can do well in New Mexico and Arizona as well as South Carolina in February, it puts him in a good position for 3/2 ... California and New York as well as Texas and Minnesota.

This thing might well go past 3/2 as well. Also during February is Tennessee, Virginia, Maine ... a few others that have homies in them as candidates.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[poskonig]

15. If Dean takes both NH and Iowa,

everyone is going to be wiped out on February 3rd. Given Dean's existing organization and fundraising, no one is going to recover from us getting 100 million dollars of free airtime.

[Pepperbelly]

17. I don't know ...

Arizona Presidential Preference Primary (Closed)--could go eiither way. No one's back yard.

Delaware Democratic Presidential Primary (Closed)-- I don't know about this. Do you have any info on Delaware?

Missouri Presidential Primary (Open)--Gep's home-skillet. No way he loses this. Clark could easily win 2 here.

New Mexico Democratic Caucus -- could also cut either way.

North Dakota Caucuses --I know nothing about the Democs in this state.

Oklahoma Presidential Primary (Closed)--Clark could well win this as well.

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary-- Edwards and Clark all the way.

This is going into March.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Ted Kennedy Lost Iowa 2-1, lost New Hampshire

too but he was able to turn his campaign around and hang on to the Convention....

[xray s]

36. March? Really?

Man that would be nice. Maybe the people of Illinois will get to be the ones to pick our next President for a change! :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Wow-

Joe Trippi's talking points...


Clinton lost NH to Tsongas after leading in the NH polls with the same compressed schedule, called it a win and proclaimed himself the "Comeback Kid", the press bought it, and the rest was history...

[JohnKleeb]

22. to quote Yogi Berra it aint over till its over

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. where ya been pardner

nt

[poskonig]

23. The difference: We already have organization all over the place.

And we have the fundraising. Dean's doing well right now; giving him 100 million in free airtime will just put the campaign on steroids.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Think Dems Will Have A Problem That The Two Most Homogeneous

states in the Union will determine their candidate....

There are prolly more non-majority people in South L A than in all of New Hampshire and Iowa....

[Pepperbelly]

28. I think Dean reached ...

the outer limits of support he can garner through the Angry-Democrat-Bashing-Bonehead tact about 2 weeks ago. Long ago, I pointed out that there is a natural limit to the support available to that tactic. We will see if he manages to spread much higher than 15%.

i don't think he will but of course, I could well be wrong.

[poskonig]

30. Trippi and McMahon have a lot of talent.

I can't wait to see what they do next!

[Kahuna]

33. Maybe so. But they only get once vote just like the rest of us...

In the end, the voters will decide. McMahon and Trippi cannot force us to vote for Dean.

[Julien Sorel]

34. Dean has ridden Dean as far as he can go.

He's a fair-to-middlin politician, who made some good plays and got a huge break, in that none of the heavyweights opposed the war (that war vote will go with Kerry to the grave, unfortunately). What he has going for him now is money. His positions and skills are ordinary, but he might be able to spend his way to the nomination.

On a different note, if Dean can't be competitive in the South during the Democratic primaries, how would he compete there in a general election? The southerner Gore couldn't carry a single southern state, but Dean will?

[Bertrand]

18. I disagree

Clark doesnt have to win either of the first two primaries, just make a strong showing so that it can be spun about how well he did lacking the resources - a moral victory like Clinton. That said, he definitly has to have a few of the Feb 3 states if he wants to remain competitive. Actually, i think Clark is playing it pretty smart for the spot he's in. Because Kerry is trying everything to destroy Dean in NH while Gep is doing the same in Iowa, it diverts resources which give the General a better chance in the upcoming primaries. He's laying low and taking on Bush, which is the best thing he could do.

[Renew Deal]

4. Polls are helping.

People feel that he is the most likely to be able to beat Bush. The polls also have him as the most likely to win the nomination. Those two things are helpfull. They reenforce his image as a winner. That's pretty important.

[Kahuna]

31. The polls drive momentum. They always do.

:hi:

[Pastiche423]

5. You really think people want a daddy?

I am an activist in my county and in my state. When I speak w/people, most say they are most afraid of unemployment and the lack of healthcare, not the boogeyman.

But then, maybe that's just my state. (Highest unemployment in the country)

[Pepperbelly]

13. What is your criticism of Clark's jobs policy? nt

[RandomUser]

6. Too early

but my hunch is it will come down to Clark or Dean. It'll probably be one of those two. We'll know better when we get closer.

[quaker bill]

11. You have a good point

Regardless of what happens in Iraq going forward, National security or *'s mismanagement of it will be a large issue.

I don't count the others out yet. It's a long way from the finish line. No doubt * will try to manipulate the process.

I am rather expect a facade government will be erected in Iraq shortly and we will be moving on. The longer that story hangs on and the more $ spent on it the worse for *.

They will likely find some face-saving way to declare victory and be bringing the troops home well before the election. They have to be wanting to paint this up as a success badly.

That doesn't mean that they won't be getting ready to go at it again if they win re-election.

[seamarq]

12. I think it will be Clark or Dean...

(leaning towards Clark) and I also think the issue that matters is the economy and jobs. Regardless, I will vote for whoever get the nomination.

[childslibrarian]

16. I say let's unite

Dean/Clark, Clark/Dean A duo to give Karl Rove nightmares..and give me sweet dreams!!!

[Clark Can WIN]

20. IHe has the best chance

Of delivering sheer undeniable and unadulterated humiliation to the White House meat puppet.

[AmeriCanadian]

26. I'll take that bet!

... I think Dean's days are numbered.

[Kahuna]

29. I think so too. The GOP's endorsing of Dean, and..

nonstop smearing of Clark is very transparent. They fear Clark as they should. He will rock their world. When it comes down to it, primary voters will vote for the candidate they think can win against bush. Thankfully not all dems consider the primaries a beauty or popularity contest. If you present a candidate who has a real chance of winning the moderates will vote in the primaries.

[MIMStigator]

27. My prediction is he'll be the NEXT PRESIDENT

Take it to the bank

[leesa]

35. Sad, isn't it!