Note On CA Recall Polls

[David__77]

I have never before seen such varying polls in a political race as we have seen with regard to the recall campaign in California. There is much hoopla in the media concerning a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showing the recall ahead by "63%" to "35%" and Schwarzenegger leading his nearest competitor, Cruz Bustamante, by 15 points.

We simply cannot give polls much credence in this case. I tend to believe that the reality is much closer to the LA Times poll, which shows the recall a very close race, or to the Field poll, which shows a half as small lead for the yes on recall vote. Even Schwarzenegger's own "internal" polls only show the actor leading by seven points at most. And, these "internal" polls are in part for the purpose of motivating a sense of momentum for media consumption.

The recall election will be pretty close, as will the successor election. We will be seeing other polls in the next few days which will be telling a different story than the one described by this CNN poll. In ALL polls, momentum is moving in the governor's direction. In the previous CNN poll, the recall was leading by "69%" to "24%"(!!!). Schwarzenegger led by a larger margin in the previous poll as well, at the same time other polls showed Bustamante with a lead.

So, before we get too concerned about any one poll, I just wanted to reiterate for Californians, that the most important thing is to make sure that all of your friends vote and that we mobilize our constituency to vote to block the Republicans:

No On Recall!
Yes On Bustamate!

[hadrons]

1. the thing with polls is the non-response rate

Zobey (sp?) says that over 60% of the time callers hang up, don't answer (not home), or decline to be asked and those that do answer tend to be more conservative (because you know how important it is to them to let everyone know how they feel)

[kentuck]

2. And the last poll asked non-voters who they supported?

Non-voters and not-likely-to-vote have been added in the new poll that shows Arnold winning by huge margins over Bustamante and Davis losing the recall... How could a poll like this even be published by a creditable newspaper...?

[David__77]

4. Actually,

the poll claims to have winnowed out the unlikely voters. It's just very interesting that we have such radically different responses from different polls. If everyone who merely disapproved of Davis voted for the recall, yes, we'd have a large margin for it. But many people who say they have an unfavorable view of him will vote to retain him.

I disagree with the poll's means of winnowing out those slightly less interested in the election. I think it's pretty obvious that those of us who find the recall distasteful are naturally less full-bore excited about the affair. We're motivated for different reasons. The overall sampling of registered voters showed a "55%" to "41%" lead for the recall.

Further, among all registered voters, Schwarzenegger leads Bustamante not 15, but only six points. These registered figures are much closer to the reality of the situation.

[radwriter0555]

3. THE MEDIA WANTS AS TO WIN. He's MUCH more able to sell headlines than

musty old gray davis, get it?

The POLLS everyone is cackling over are at virtually the same numbers they were 3 weeks ago.

We cannot let the MEDIA hand this election to the republicans.

You all FAILED to listen to me 6 months ago when I said this recall would take place, and NOW I'm saying we have to get the vote out, to vote NO ON THE RECALL.

But, watch, AS will be the Governor of California. And the passivity and bickering let it happen.

[CMT]

5. new LA Times poll out this.

We'll see how it looks in that poll.

[David__77]

6. One more note on successor election.

According to the results, available at:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr030929.asp

89% of the Republicans have decided their vote, while this is true of only 81% of the Democrats.

There are so many variables. Key, once again, is making absolutely sure that we have the votes in the ballot box on election day. We just need to mobilize the numbers, which we can do.

[roguevalley]

7. I am curious who commissioned the 63-35 poll

it all comes down to the phrasing of the questions.
if you want to con people into thinking you are the
leader, commission a poll, word it right.

[David__77]

8. Commissioned by USA Today and CNN.

Performed by Gallup. I don't think there is an agenda here necessarily, just a bad polling method.

[David__77]

9. God, people need to read these points.

The defeatism is so unnecessary.