My Deep-South Strategy that will work...

[Dob Bole]

(This is in response to what it would take Clark (or any other dem candidate) to win in the South)

You know who carried the entire South right after Nixon? Carter. You know who carried half of it twice in the 1990s? Clinton.

(A la the new board rules, I will point out here that I support Sharpton, just for the heck of it.)

Clark can win in the South. The polls show him doing it already. But we would be fools to think that culture only matters to white racists, or that taking Southern culture into account=catering to white racists. Some still exist, but this is not 1950. Here is how to win:

1) Forget the NASCAR voters crap. It's not working for Bob Graham. Some of these people will be more likely to vote for a general, but there are better places to concentrate your time. Where?

2) Religion. It matters in the South, if you hadn't noticed. Religious people are the swing voters, not drunken rednecks. Carter won it because he was the first "born again" president. Clinton won by the same number of Southern Baptists who voted for him. So talk to Christianity Today or something. Give interviews to these kinds of publications about your private life. People like that kind of thing.

3) Democrats. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the South as a whole. If you can get these people to vote for you, you win. This will require a lot of grassroots work to get out the vote, and convincing people why it's good to remain loyal to the Democratic Party.

4) Appear to be a normal working person. Do not wear penny loafers. (Kerry, get some boots now. Dean, work on a car.) Southerners won't vote for a snooty person.

5) Eat lots of soul food. Eat all the fried vegetables that you can. Eat some Gumbo. Go to 4th sunday dinner at a church and eat casseroles. You need rural people.

6)Help the Libertarian Party out. Make them out to be the real conservatives, and you might swing a couple of states.

7) Go to Nashville, and kiss the arse of everyone you meet there. (I hate Nashville music, but if one can be seen shaking the hands of Garth Brooks and Michael W. Smith, it definitely wouldn't hurt.)

Now, on Clark (for those who asked.)If Clark were to do all of these things right, he would win every Southern state. But in the very least, he could win these:

Arkansas: his home state. Very Dem.
West Virginia: Very Unionized. Bush might not even be on the ballot.

South Carolina: (What? you say?) 40% black, highest concentration of military retirees in the country. If the retirees actually like him, he'll pull it off.

Georgia: went Dem in 1976, 1980, 1992 presidential elections. Contains Atlanta, Jimmy Carter, lots of military bases thanks to Sam Nunn. Infantrymen are already required to read Clark's book 'Waging modern warfare'

Florida: (ah, yes, that one) Just go to North Florida and eat the soul food. You'll be fine.

North Carolina: Only with Edwards as running mate.

Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri- all won by Clinton.

SO Clark can be in good shape, if he does it right.

[bluestateguy]

1. What about Mississippi and Alabama?

Let's get a little greedy here. Can Clark win Miss and 'Bama?

[Dob Bole]

5. If all the Democrats vote for him-yes...

Democrats outnumber Republicans in these states, but many of them are conservatives. But no Dem has carried Alabama or Mississippi since Carter in 1976.

[sleipnir]

13. Missouri the "Deep South" ??

You forget MS and AL, but you include MO and KY as the deep south? Not quite at all (those two states, you have to mix Midwest theory with Southern theory to win.) Me thinks a geography lesson could be helpful :)

[Dob Bole]

17. Not Deep South, but Southern in a way...

The Southern Baptist connection is there. Gephardt as running mate would definitely help.

[janekat]

2. Very interesting - it might just work n/t

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

3. I'm giving Dob Bole the DU honorary citizenship award

for the most sensible candidate thread I think I have EVER seen on DU!

Thanks. Everything you said makes perfect sense and I can find no fault with it. In fact, I really think you are onto what it takes for us to connect with people not only in the south but all over the place.

Too bad I only have two hands...two thumbs up just doesn't seem like enough.
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

[sasquatch]

4. Screw the south

Let's worry about the west and midwest. Besides it's the southern dems that dragged us into that DLC nightmare. Let's worry about the rest of America and leave the knuckle draggers to thier own cousins:dunce: I don't care about the south never have and never will.

[bluestateguy]

7. Bad strategy

Write off the south and you free up campaign resources for Team Bush to pour time, money and campaign stops in places like Pennslyvania, Michigan and even seemingly safe Democratic states like Illinois, Minnesota, California, Oregon and Washington. Even though Al Gore was swept in the south, he forced Bush to campaign hard to win Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida (which was close enough for Bush to steal), and to an extent Louisiana. That diverted Bush's resources away from other swing states and Democratic leaning states. Campaigns are often games of resource allocation. Forcing your opponent to allocate resources into certain states is a good strategy because it drains resources away from other states. Letting Bush have the South uncontested is an open invitation to Bush to make a full court press for states that we should win comfortably.

[sasquatch]

10. Play it but, don't sacrafice your soul for them

If they feel alienated I don't give a shit how they feel. If they wan't to put in their Fascist with a (D) behind their name to damned bad. I say cut funding to the south if we win the White House back for punishment for going * all the way around in 2000 and for voting Max Cleland out of office. Maybe they'll then learn to evolve.

[WillyBrandt]

14. Self-referentiality in action

"If they feel alienated I don't give a shit how they feel."

Well, if that isn't the most self-nullifying sentence I've heard in a while...

[sasquatch]

18. The South is a big human hog lot

and to quote my great grandfather "you lay with a hog you are a hog". The south is the eyesore of the US and if this party wants to win back the populated swing states like Ohio and West Virginia then you need to get back to your liberal backbone not sell your soul to the Devil wrapped in confederate flags. We need to worry about Ohio West Virginia and Tennessee because if we win these states we'll take away the need for the deep south vote.

[WillyBrandt]

24. what's this selling soul business?

We're trying to argue that it's possible to win in the South WITHOUT selling your soul.

I'd rather have a South aligning more Democratic than an ever more rightward South that helps elects the GOP to power.

[sasquatch]

37. No your not

Your talking about voting DLC again that is what's going to happen when you vote Clark because Clark is a DLC whore. Got it now.

[Lars39]

54. Yes, while hogs stink, they are also very bright, more than dogs,

it's said. You are underestimating the revulsion for Bushco' results, ie,no jobs and realities of the troops lives and deaths getting back to the hometown.

[WillyBrandt]

8. How did the South drag us into the DLC

This makes no sense. The DLC is epitomized less by centrist policies than by boring intellectualism, and an aversion to big ideas.

Gore's rise (before the fall) in the South came through, I believe, his brief affair with populism, not with his more normal adoptation of a DLC tone.

The South is essential if we want a RELIABLE lock on power. The question is how can we bring the South to us, instead of going to the South's currently conservative politics? The answer, I believe, is with the most culturally credible candidate in the race: Gen Wes Clark.

[sasquatch]

15. Here's how

Listen up and learn. In the 60's Nixon used the "southern strategy" to take the south completly away from the democratic party. The DLC formed to counter this and take back the south. They were originaly known as the "Atari Democrats" because they were big into computers. They all originated from the south their game plan was to give the repukes what they want and appeal to southern voters by doing that. You understand know.

[WillyBrandt]

21. But that's not right

"You understand know ." No, I don't.

I thought the DLC was the not-always-happy union of the Atari Democrats (who prized high-tech stuff) with Southern Democrats who wanted to unify an anti-crime policy with an old-fashioned New Deal message.

Unfortunately, the New Deal big-ideas bit got knocked out, and people thus wrongly conflate any talk of a Democratic strategy in the South with the Atari Democrat's aversion to anything really bold. That misread the history of our party, and therefore of its future south of the Mason-Dixon line.

And that's the point: going for the South does NOT mean we have to adopt a bland centrism. It doesn't mean we have to ape the Republicans' positions, since those do not have broad appeal. It means we have to pick the right tactics that allow us to win in the South while preserving our values.

[sasquatch]

25. Yes it does

They listen to those fascist in the "christian" conservitive council and that's how they vote. If you can't see that I'm sorry, but your dreaming pal.

[WillyBrandt]

28. This isn't true

Many Southern states are becoming more urban, less fundamentalist, but still vote GOP out of inertia and lingering cultural affection (or disaffection) than anything else.

Why not bring them to the Light Side from the Dark Side? I don't want to write off my countrymen. Really, I don't. And I don't think it's necessary: the balance is close enough to change political reality.

[sasquatch]

35. Once again no it isn't

They will vote how the Klan or the "christian" conservitives tell them to and it's sad fact. I know it's becoming more urban electricity does that;) It had to grow eventually hell the rest of the country did so some growth was bound to spring up down there. Look we're in the nasty buisiness of politics and it's like the mob sometimes. Did you see the Sopranos when Tony finally realized that his best friend of all time "Pussy" was wearing a liar and dragging down the family. Tony had him whacked like he needed to and that got everything back to normal. I'm sorry to tell you that, but it's true withthe south let 'em go they're gone and they're never coming back.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

26. Well, two of the stalwarts of the original DLC

were Al Gore and Sam Nunn, both Southerners. And there were others, too, but I can't remember their names.

[sasquatch]

30. Thank you for proving my point

Now tell the others so they get it.

[WillyBrandt]

31. And others weren't

The DLC is more of a lame-ass think tank than Dixiecrat plot.

They didn't make us Dems sell our souls to the devil.

The truth is much less evil and much more boring: they made us lose our soul altogether. Slowly life is picking up again...

[sasquatch]

49. Then why are you backing this soul sucking deep south strategy?

You are a DLC zombie if you do. You understand yet.

[Nevernose]

19. Lay off the South, please

I was born in the South, raised in the South, and most of my VERY PROGRESSIVE and VERY DEMOCRATIC family still lives there. The adults all have college degrees (including Ph.D's and M.D.'s) and are also very involved in Democratic party politics.

Neither they nor I like being referred to as "knuckledraggers."

Jews and African-Americans usually vote Democratic -- would it be okay for Republicans to refer to them as "junglebunnies" or "hebes?" No? I didn't think so. So please lay off the South.

[sasquatch]

22. No

Some of my scumbag relatives live in the south and I call them stuff that if I said here it would make you scream from this board in horror. If your family can't get it together and leave that trash hole then that's your problem. If I were you I would give them a ultimatem "leave or you're dead to me". I'm glad you got yourself together and left that god forsaken hole. If you don't believe me on this with the south then listen to the Mike Malloy show and he'll tell you the same thing I do. Besides southerners I'm referring to are as white as I am so it's ok and isn't the same as a white repug calling a black man a "nigger".

[Nevernose]

32. I don't care what names you call your relatives

I care what names you call MY relatives, and me for that matter. Making sweeping epithets against people based on their geographic region is just as offensive as any racial or ethnic slur.

For the record, assholes come from all over. Amidou Diallo? Shot in NYC. Rodney King? Beaten in L.A.. Timothy McVeigh? Kansas, by way of the Michigan Militia. Segregation? I've been to Cabrini Greens.

Ronald Reagan? Orange County. Pappa Bush? Maine. Dick Cheney? Wyoming. Rush Limbaugh? Missouri.

[sasquatch]

36. Yes, but where is their consticency

THE SOUTH!!!!! If your relatives are smart enough to get ph.D's then they're smart enough to figure out how to get a Ryder truck and move out.

[WillyBrandt]

40. A personal insult

That's a real shitty thing to say to someone who said nothing to you that warranted.

Sorry, bub, you're not showing any special wisdom, just the petulance and nastiness of the idiot scorned. You should apologize for that rotten remark.

[sasquatch]

44. No it isn't

I owe him not a damn thing. I didn't insult him I just told him how it is and if he can't handle it then s/he needs to grow up.

[JVS]

50. I agree

[WillyBrandt]

6. Good post - tactics and the realignment

A lot more down to earth than my airy theorizing (though, in fairness, I was talking about Clark bringing not only a victory, but a political realignment in the South). You've got a brain for political tactics.

Anyway, here goes:

(1) The NASCAR Stuff. Yes, you're right: that really is crap. These categories have a surface plausibility but are just nonsense.

(2) Religion. I'm an atheist, but I respect religion, and the GOP has hijacked it for too long. Only Lieberman consistently talks about faith, and that's just a shame. There seems to be a small resurgance of PROGRESSIVE Christianity in the South; if Clark can talk about faith in a sincere, non-off-putting way, he's golden. He's got that conversion...

(5) & (7) Soul food--Yes, he's got to get every red-blooded country singer behind him. We've got to pile on to fight against our cultural disadvantage in the South.

(6) Libertarian Party. Don't support a candidate, folks? Do yourselves a favor and give money to the Libs. The GOP does it by giving money to the snotball phony-progressive Greens, and the GOP prospers thereby. Lots of folks calls themselves Libertarians: if they're stupid enough to adopt the title, let's help them vote that way too!

Also--as someone who grew up in Florida, it's absolutely not a typical Southern state. I hear Clark speaks Spanish: if he could talk in nice Spanish on Telemundo in South Florida, and stir up more unhappiness with Bush with the pro-military, anti-Castro Cubans, then he's set there. S. Florida's electoral dynamic is weird: you've got Cubans who vote Republican, and other Hispanics, blacks, and non-Hispanic whites who vote Democratic AGAINST the Cubans, and uniformly lose. The Cubans are the tipping point, and deserve special attention.

(Yet ANOTHER political re-alignment in the making...)

Northern/Central Florida can be addressed like North Carolina: mixing up between your smart, urban Southern appeal and your gumbo-eating rural schtick.

[jiacinto]

9. Well

You write:

"Democrats. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the South as a whole. If you can get these people to vote for you, you win. This will require a lot of grassroots work to get out the vote, and convincing people why it's good to remain loyal to the Democratic Party"

That argument falls on its face for the following reason. Many of these "Democrats" haven't voted for the party's candidate for presdient since 1976, and many not since 1964. While they keep their Democratic voter registration they vote more like Republicans. They may still vote Democratic in local downballot and statewide races; but, at the top of the ticket, when it comes to the National Party, they reject their candidates for Republicans. The type of national Democrat they would vote for would have to be pro-life, pro-gun, anti-gay rights, and pro religious-right. The only Democrat who could get them to support the party nationally is someone like Zell Miller. And even then their votes would still be hard to get.

I doubt that Clark can win SC. SC has become one of the most Republican states in the country. It is the home of Bob Jones University. During the 1990s it rebuffed Clinton twice. It gave Bush a crushing margin over Gore in 2000. If SC is even remotely competetive in 2000 then Bush is already losing the election.

Georgia is going to be a GOP state in 2004 most likely. Although it was close during the 1992 and the 1996 elections, the state supported Bush comfortably in 2000. Georgia is going to lean Republican in 2004. The Democrats would carry GA before they would SC. If GA is competetive in 2004 then Bush is in deep trouble.

[WillyBrandt]

11. Maybe, but NC, FL, and VA

Are absolutely within reach. Those states are quite prosperous and are less stratified politically upon racial lines.

The resource allocation post above is very on target: if we have to make Bush fight like hell to be SURE that he preserves, say, GA, then he incurs correlate weaknesses in other swing states. He pushes one down and another pops up.

[jiacinto]

20. NC and VA: not in 2004

Those states are not going to be competetive in 2004. They both supported Bush pretty comfortably.

What I will say is that in VA the suburbs of DC are becoming more competetive. Take Fairfax County, for example. In 1988 it went 2-1 for Bush I. Then, over the course of the 1990s, GOP performance steadily weakened. By 2000, although Bush II still prevailed there, Gore and Nader's totals outnumbered that of the Republican.

VA's suburbs are also becoming more diverse. More Hispanics and Arabs are moving there. VA accounts for a large share of the nationwide Muslim and Arab population in America.

NC's research triangle is attracting people from the Northeast. But the state still votes Republican nationally, although Democrats fare well in local races there.

I do expect both states to become competetive eventually, but I don't see them becoming full battlegrounds until the 2010s. In 2004 I expect these states to stay with Bush, although that could change conceivably in the next year.

If NC and VA are remotely competetive in 2004 then Bush is in serious trouble.

[wuushew]

12. How about the JFK/LBJ strategy of 1960

where the part of JFK is played by Kerry or Dean, and the part of LBJ is played by Edwards,Clark or Graham.

All money would be spent in Florida therebye providing a comfortable failsafe in the event of a Southern meltdown in 2004.

[WillyBrandt]

16. 1960 was before the 1964 Civil Rights Act & The Southern Strategy

Racial fracturing in Southern Politics happened after LBJ (who admitted that his Civil Rights Act would sink the party for at least a generation).

The more Southern the ticket, the better. I don't care if every President from now until the Year 3000 is from the deepest part of the Deep South: as long as s/he has progressive values and can win, then that's all I want. Indulging Southern religionalism is a small price to pay for liberal politics. . .

[Lydia Leftcoast]

23. Appeal to working class and middle class voters

not only by being "just plain folks," but also by addressing the economic concerns that no one seems to be talking about: affordable housing, better wages and benefits, usurous credit card companies, local culture being swamped by corporate conglomerates, how 1/50th of the money spent on and projected for the Iraq War could have given their state a world-class infrastructure (with the other 49/50ths or so going to the other states). These are issues that both black and white voters can be rallied around, and a candidate who could put these concepts in simple, memorable terms would sweep the region.

Push the cultural issues to the background. During campaign stops in the South, don't mention the hot button issues unless directly asked, and if asked, say, "My position is X. Now let's talk about something more important to the future of this country."

My reason for suggesting this is that less informed voters who criticize "liberals" do so almost entirely on the basis of cultural issues. It has been so long since any national politician advocated economic liberalism that most voters wouldn't even recognize it as liberalism.

[WillyBrandt]

27. And Clark, I think...

has the talent of making liberalism sound like common sense. Which it is.

Like you said, let's push all the cultural crap out of the way (Edwards and Clark can best do this), and focus on the issues, where we win.

[sasquatch]

29. I'm ok with trying to get Kentucky, Tennessee and North Carolina

but I'm not voting Bush Lite to get it ok. If you do you're setting the US back century's because the true swing states like Ohio and West Virginia arn't getting their voices heard. When that happens the majoritie of voters stay home and don't vote and the pukes win.

[wuushew]

33. check out union membership by state

The South loves guns,god, and cultural conservatism. If these states could really go democratic would not the precursors of liberal/leftist thought be there? like tax structure or union power?





Total
16,107
13 .2

Alabama
157
8 .9

Alaska
64
24 .3

Arizona
120
5 .5

Arkansas
63
5 .9

California
2,454
17 .5

Colorado
157
7 .8

Connecticut
257
16 .7

Delaware
41
11 .1

D.C.
36
13 .8

Florida
380
5 .7

Georgia
218
6 .0

Hawaii
120
24 .4

Idaho
39
7 .1

Illinois
1066
19 .6

Indiana
376
13 .3

Iowa
155
11 .1

Kansas
99
8 .2

Kentucky
164
10 .0

Louisiana
134
8 .1

Maine
75
12 .9

Maryland
346
14 .1

Massachusetts
428
14 .2

Michigan
914
21 .1

Minnesota
439
17 .6

Mississippi
69
6 .6

Missouri
322
13 .2

Montana
51
14 .1

Nebraska
63
7 .9

Nevada
147
15 .2

New Hamphire
60
9 .7

New Jersey
749
19 .4

New Mexico
48
6 .6

New York
1,987
25 .3

North Carolina
111
3 .2

North Dakota
24
8 .1

Ohio
858
16 .7

Oklahoma
127
8 .9

Oregon
227
15 .5

Pennsylvania
847
15 .5

Rhode Island
81
17 .2

South Carolina
81
4 .9

South Dakota
19
5 .6

Tennessee
222
9 .0

Texas
451
5 .1

Utah
60
6 .2

Vermont
27
9 .5

Virginia
189
5 .9

Washington
471
18 .4

West Virginia
92
13 .3

Wisconsin
398
15 .6

Wyoming
17
7 .8



http://www.aflcio.org/aboutunions/joinunions/whyjoin/uniondifference/uniondiff16.cfm

[WillyBrandt]

38. You're mistaking cause and effect

When union membership is low, it's easer for the GOP to rise, which makes it harder to build unions, which makes unions less popular and appealing, which helps the GOP . . . It's a vicious cycle we need to make a virtuous circle.

Look at FDR's New Deal coalition: all sorts of characters were in there. Racist Southern Bourbons. Southern blacks moving North. Unhappy immigrants. Earnest young intellectuals. Oklahomans. Very religious, very culturally conservative folks.

We can have a mix and make a great change.

Also: don't think culturally conservative means they won't Dem. You can be culturally conservative and still be touched by a message of social justice: we need a messanger to get the message out.

[sasquatch]

51. Yeah they're anti-union so screw 'em

They arn't democrats so to hell with them. They're a lost cause.

[WillyBrandt]

34. No candidate is Bush-lite

None. Not even horrid Holy Joe Lieberman. Bush is a right-wing radical: he does not want to push America back 10 or 20 years. He wants to push it back 100 years.

Don't ever lose sight of that. We all have our favorite candidates: most of us HAVE to be disappointed with the party's choice.

But there is no Bush-lite: you can't dress up a skunk. You can not be a lite version of a terrible radical. You can be more liberal or more centrist, but ANY person who beats Bush will have saved this country from disaster.

You might think that only candidate X can lead us to the promised land. Fine; I think my guy can, too. But every candidate except Bush can keep us from heading into disaster, which is a pretty fucking decent goal, too.

(edit typo)

[sasquatch]

39. Yes they are

Gephart, LIEberman, Edwards and Clark are all Bush lite. They all vote for the bloody god awful war. They still support the President in his decision to do so.

[wuushew]

41. How did Clark vote for the Iraq war when he is not a member of congress?

Was it the same way Senator Dean (D-Vermont) did?

[WillyBrandt]

42. By assertion

Say X is true. Throw in some bad grammar and a 10 year old's attitude. Compensate for falsity by repetition. Smear regions of the country unfairly.

And, as if by magic, X becomes true.

[Name removed]

47. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sasquatch]

46. Dean was against the war

like Kucinich has been. He's been on the right side of the war issue the whole time unlike the pink tutu DLC dems.

[sasquatch]

48. I forgot to post this

Clark said in a Salon interview that he "probably"(probably translates to yes) voted for the war. He also considers Wolfowitz, Cheney and Rumsfeld his "friends" and say he can "work with them". Look I'm sorry if you like this snake in the grass known as Clark. I hate to tell you this, but anyone who can call members of the BCF his friends is a Nazi simpathizer in my book.

[catforclark2004]

43. Clark is the only candidate that could win the south...don't forget 9/11

The 9/11 tradegy has changed the political map from any prior election..and most should not ignore it. America has been held captive to "Fear" for the purpose of re-electing George Bush unless the right candidate is up against him. The majority of the south, in particular, is only going to agree to a transition on the war on terror if:

1) The candidate has their confidence that he can handle it...spells Military experience
2) The candidate, if a southerner which will greatly add to their confidence...Arkansa will do.
3) The candidate has some humble beginnings....was not raised affluent.
4) Veterans will vote for the guy that took the 4 bullets in Vietnam and kept on fighting...
5) The candidate is very good looking....
6) The candidate can garnish cross over votes from independents, moderates and swings.
7) Military will vote for their man, and according to the Stars and Stripes is not President Toy Flight Suit...but one that is known as a soldier's soldier....and who has written 2 books on the military...which they will read.

That Spells "President Clark"......he is realistically one Democrat that can win the South.

[whirlygigspin]

45. southern strategy

Dean/Moseley Braun!

[Padraig18]

52. Why does everyone forget Kentucky?

Highly competetive, badly hurt by the recession, etc....

[Dob Bole]

55. I mentioned Kentucky

as one of the states that Clark could win more easily. The "West Side" of the South is still more Democratic than the "East Side," save for Georgia and Florida.

[HFishbine]

53. On North Carolina

Edwards as VP could win Sharpton North Carolina.

[im4edwards]

56. for all the points you make doesn't Edwards better fit the bill ?

with the exception that just occurred to be re military retirees.

NOTE: I am an Edwards supporter and they are all democrats in my mind

Given that both Carter (ex-Navy) and Clinton (not ex anything) did well and both had actual southern accents I would think that Edwards lack of military service is not that much of a liability.

He already had demonstrated that he can turn on the ah shucks to good effect.