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...and we usually have among the lowest prices in the country.
Gas prices will probably drop slightly in September and through the fall as demand will decrease somewhat. I think it will stop around $2.20 here, which is still an obscenity.
There are a lot of folks who have said that the increase in prices stems from increased demand in China. A certain amount of increase from that sector is undeniable, but that's been going on since 1998, yet prices didn't really spike until after Bushco slithered into the White House.
Other folks cite limited refining capacity. Again, hogwash. Prices didn't spike like this before. Several times this year we have seen prices spike because of perceived danger to refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico due to hurricanes. I don't buy that, because it wasn't an issue before a couple of years ago. No one was screaming about this when Hurricane Georges washed ashore on the Gulf Coast in 2002; it wasn't until 2004 that we started seeing this phenomenon.
Besides... all of these factors put together don't account for even close to the amount of increase we're seeing now. Perhaps a third of it is attributable. I can go with that. But more than doubled prices? No.
The bottom line is that a longtime oilman with close and clearly-defined ties to the Saudi royals and to the bin Laden group has entered the White House, and - gasp - prices have skyrocketed since. Occam's Razor says that the simplest answer is most likely to be correct, and using that theory, it seems reasonable to hypothesize that this government is working in concert with oil interests to spike prices.
In 2004, I warned a number of friends - Republicans all - that gas prices would drop to around $1.70 before the elections, and then balloon upward again if Bush were reelected. I was roundly hooted. I am surprised that none of these acquaintances even mentions gas prices around me anymore. In high office or out, Bush supporters can't seem to bring themselves to admit a mistake openly.
I spent several minutes summarizing the above points to a woman at a wedding party yesterday...definitely a Republican... and the look I received was one of dawning horror. There are a great many GOP supporters who have no idea that the former Saudi ambassador to the US was Crown Prince Bandar, who is well-known by the sobriquet of "Bandar Bush" due to his close ties with the Bush family. These same people have no idea that on the morning of September 11, 2001, George H. W. Bush was in a meeting with Carlyle Group leadership... a meeting also attended by a representative of the bin Laden group. As I left, I smiled at her and told her I hoped I hadn't freaked her out too badly. I won't soon forget her reply: "I don't know really what I am anymore." (politically)
The indication here is that even the loyal right-wingers are tossing uneasily in their sleep. So - where are we?
I suspect that gasoline prices will flatline in early summer next year, and decrease gradually in the months prior to Election Day. How much and how fast they fall is likely to run parallel to poll results indicating popular support for the current GOP congressional majority. The special election in Ohio earlier this summer was a very bad sign for that majority. Prices may well fall below $2.00 if the situation becomes bad enough for the Republicans.
The question is, how many people will believe the GOP when they say that things are coming around economically when that happens? And how many families will have been driven into the ground by then? How many loyal GOP families will find that these gas prices have driven them to the brink of bankruptcy, and then discover that the bankruptcy bill passed by Congress and signed by Bush earlier this year has closed their only door of escape? How many people who were staggering before will have been driven to their knees, or onto their faces, by an economy that - like Terry Schiavo, rest her soul - shows vital signs, yet is deteriorating inexorably? How many GOP officials will continue to claim that the economy is still vital, just as they did when this poor woman's husband sought to put a merciful end to her pitiable half-existence? How many people who challenge them will be publicly lambasted and scorned?
I think that there is a good chance that the Democrats will gain seats in both Houses of Congress. I don't think they can win back both. They may not win back either. However, 2008 has become a ticking time-bomb for the GOP. They have no candidate without clear and rank ties to the current Administration, except John McCain. McCain is also the only one with enough name-recognition to mount a serious candidacy. There are a few wannabees out there like Frist and Hagel, but I don't believe they will be able to build up enough steam to get to the front.
2006 is likely to be an unpleasant election year, but 2008 promises to be the dirtiest, most fought-over campaign we have ever seen. Without a strong message, a strong economy, or strong moral ground on which to rest, the attack machine is going to be running 24-7. I recommend that anyone running in 2008 as a Democrat had better have plenty of firepower ready to throw at the opposition. It will do no good to try to hide any past misdeeds, even if there are none; the GOP machine is willing and able to make up smear topics and hurl them until they stick simply because they pile up so high.
Did I say, no moral high ground? Yes. The Department of Defense has refused to release the videos and photographs still extant from the Abu Gharib scandal, to the point of violating a federal court order to do so. Their claim is that the release of these media would further demoralize our troops and inflame our enemies. Donald Rumsfeld himself has stated that the images in these media are grotesque. Journalist Seymour Hersh has indicated that the images include torture, murder, and child rape. Release of these images would have an effect on the conservative Christian community that would be devastating to the GOP: either conservative Christians would have to abandon their public support for this administration, or by supporting it, announce their tacit or vocal agreement with the policies that allowed these acts o be perpetrated. The Ohio election was largely affected by a campaign by the Catholic church to vote against abortion. I suspect that the thing that the GOP fears most is that the Catholic community, given some of the sordid events in its recent history, would walk away from the GOP rather than be identified with this simple slogan: "A vote for a Republican is a vote for child rape."
Bottom line: starting next spring, oil prices in America will be a direct barometer of the GOP's poll performance. When they can't win our minds, and they inspire revulsion in our hearts, their only path to the maintenance of power will be through our pocketbooks and stomachs, and I suspect they will use it.
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