Energy -- Are we already in the Day of Reckoning predicted 30 years ago?

[Armstead]

Does it strike anyone else who was alive during the 1970's and early 80's how absolutely STUPID the current energy crisis is?

I mean the same things being said today -- and the same dire warnings -- were being said following the first Energy Crisis in the 1970's and then again in its sequal after the Iranian revolution.

Gas and other energy prices going through the roof. Consumers getting gouged. Businesses being hit by high energy costs, which threaten to set off a new round of hyperinflation and economic stagnation.

Back then, there were calls and half-hearted efforts to change our ways. Find new sources of renewable energy that would free us from bondage to oil producing nations and oil oligarchs. Not to mention the warnings about environmental peril from our excessive consumption of fossil fuels.

And yet -- 30 years later -- we're stuck in the same boat. The same high-minded crap is being spouted once again about the need for alternative energy. The same "official" committment to policies to achieve that IN THE FUTURE.

DAMMIT, this IS the future of 30 years ago. And except for scattered noteworthy exceptions, not a damn thing has either been attempted or accomplished in the mainstream political or economic systems to deal with the problems that were foreseen in the 1970's. If anything, we've become even bigger energy hogs.

Is it possible we had a second chance in the 1970's and we blew it, and now the chicken have come home to roost?

[shoelace414]

1. We started it in the 1970's but

Reagan stopped it when he got into office, and 1992 is a long way from 1980.

[Armstead]

2. We all stopped it

Everything is society ignored the day of reckoning.

Except for a small segment of far-sighted progressives, we kicked the can of energy reform down the road.

[Karenina]

13. When Reagan dismantled

the solar panels Carter had installed on the White House...

[bemildred]

3. Yes, Jimmy C. wanted to address the problem in 1977.

And the Democratic controlled Congress gave him nothing.
Don't even get me started on Raygun.

[Siena]

4. I just read an interesting article in the NY Times magazine about this.

I never realized it but it seems that we really cannot say how much oil is left. And even if we could increase our technology and measure what is there, we still cannot predict because if demand rises too much and the oil is extracted too quickly, you could damage that particular portal for good. Further, OPEC nations are not really honest about any knowledge they do have about how much oil is there. Why? It does not behoove the OPEC nations to have the prices of oil rise too quickly since this will only send us into a recession where use decreases quickly and they will only lose money. Therefore, there is an element of wondering what exactly is the truth? Bottom line, to ignore that we have some sort of energy crisis would be silly. The oil is just not going to last forever. How much longer is a good question and one that really cannot be answered. And worse - it seems that there will not be much warning either for when it will run out. Therefore, it is important to take steps NOW for this inevitable problem.

[Armstead]

5. Compare information revolution to energy

We've done absolutely amazing things related to information technology in the last 20 years. Things are commonplace that were undreamed of in the 1970's.

The problem is there has not been a similar revolution in energy. Rather than the "anything is possible" attitude we had towards computer technology, we have taken a "nothing is possible" attitude towards energy.

[Siena]

6. Very good point.

But it doesn't seem like we are investing any time or money into this problem but rather claiming that there is no problem.

[Armstead]

7. That's why I cited the 30 year void

NOW even conservatives arestarting to talk up alternative energy and conservation again. But for the last 30 years -- despite the red flags raised in the 1970's -- the attitude has been "Don't worry. Be happy."

If even half of the resources and creativity that went into the Information Revolution had been applied to energy, we might well be driving cars that run on air today.

[Siena]

8. Very, very true.

And I hope you're right! It is true that even the conservatives are starting to come around so that is definitely a good sign.

[ObaMania]

9. Nope, I think this day of reckoning is a fake crises orchestrated by..

.. Crashcart and his band of robber-barons from their secret energy meetings.

Who knows? The worse things get, the more pressure will be on these fucks to turn over their meeting documents that they refuse to turn over.

Heck, why do you think Crashcart has enlisted a criminal atty?

[trekbiker]

10. this time is different for a few good reasons...

China and India were not big oil consumers back then. China in fact exported oil. But they are now driving the worlds increase in oil consumption. Russia is also coming up to speed as an energy consumer. The world is basically at or very near to "Peak Oil". But oil is not going to run out for a very very long time. It will just get more and more expensive. As it does, competing technologies will become more economically feasible. Formerly uneconomic sources of oil like tar sands and coal gasification will become profitable and greatly extend the downward slope of Hubberts peak oil curve.

I am choosing to see this crisis from a "glass is half full" perspective for a few reasons. High fuel costs will force some very exciting technologies to come to market much sooner than we used to think. Nanotechnology breakthru's are about to revolutionalize photovoltaic efficiencies and costs and may very well lead to the energy storage (battery) miracle that's been a major choke point in the past. I can see where in a few years it will be possible to stick 5kw of panels on your roof for relatively low cost, store the energy in a 20KWhr battery the size of a washing machine, network on the electric secondary system between your neighbors and completely disconnect from your local electric utility (I'm an electric distribution engineer for a large utility and have seen what's coming in PV array's, the technology right now is not economic but it soon will be).

Wind technology is here right now. Modern wind turbines are capable of 3MW generation each. that is way beyond anything possible in the 70's and is competitive with natural gas.

Toyota is way ahead of us in hybrid technology. the germans arent far behind. In a few years they will be selling a PHEV with much better regenerative braking and battery technology that will get well over 100mpg. You will be able to plug it in at your home at night and recharge it from the energy your PV array stored up during the day in your nano-Lithium-whatever battery pack..

the future is about to get a lot more exciting..

[Armstead]

11. I hope you're right....

But we all need a major attitude adjustment before our behavior and economic and political systems become reoriented to that

[trekbiker]

12. unfortunately,

the masses are just not that smart or forward thinking. We are reactive rather than proactive. So it will all boil down to dollars and economic pain before we are moved to action. We should have started preparing in the 1970's but that is just wishful thinking.