Latest Katrina predicted paths, New Orleans take heed

[steve2470]

[Lindacooks]

1. Wow - they're really starting to cluster over New Orleans and Biloxi...

[Maple]

2. Fingers crossed

Toes crossed.

[JackDragna]

3. I've spoken with some people who know government folk in LA..

New Orleans is going to probably take a direct hit. I live in Baton Rouge, so this city is going to be clogged with New Orleans refugees.

[tedoll78]

4. I'm as tired as all hell..

but the prospect of my childhood hometown being washed off of the map is keeping me awake. That, and Mom and Dad still live there. They'll be getting a call from me in the morning.. I'll plead with them to flee for their lives.

Part of me still doesn't believe it could happen. Hmm..

[tkmorris]

5. My wife and I are hurricane junkies

We spend an hour or two every day from June to November studying the tropics and poring over various radar images.

It is pretty unusual for there to be such agreement in the various models this far away from landfall. The fact that there is means a high degree of confidence in the projected path. It's not a certainty, there is no such thing as certainty when it comes to hurricanes, but it's a good bet that this storm is going to land very close to the New Orleans area.

If you live anywhere from Mobile AL to New Orleans LA WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY. It is already a very nasty storm and conditions in the gulf are absolutely perfect for further strengthening. Water temperatures are very high and there is very little shear. I especially fear for New Orleans. If this storm strikes there the effects will likely be devastating. Do not underestimate Katrinas potential; she could well place large portions of the Louisiana coast under several feet of water.

This looks to be one of the worst storms I've seen in the last several years of studying them. If you live near the predicted landfall point and you do not have to be there, leave.

I believe this storm will be upgraded to a Category 3 (major hurricane) by 11 AM Saturday and will be a Cat 4 by Sunday evening. The current SHIPS intensity forecast calls for winds between 140 and 150 MPH sustained by landfall. If that forecast pans out we are talking about Andrew or Camille type damage, and if that is visited upon New Orleans the effects will be magnified by NO's infamous vulnerability to surge and flooding.

I realize how fearmongering this post sounds but I can't help it. I watch people here (Delray Beach) underestimate these storms all the time and for the most part they get away with it. It always goes somewhere else. That complacency will hurt them one day.

[HeeBGBz]

13. You should join us in the Weather Group, tkmorris

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=328

For all weatherheads.

I'm in Gulfport. I live in a good spot, so I will probably stay home.

I will probably be boarding up the puppies and kitties today at the kennel though. Not in a good spot there.

[QC]

19. The models were clustered over Panama City this time yesterday,

so these things can change rapidly. Seems that everyone on the northern Gulf Coast should still be a bit nervous. I know I am.

[pitohui]

20. cat 3 now as of 7 AM EST

prob not enough time to safely evacuate

so far they aren't calling it

is there even an evac of grand isle/lower jeff parish

if not, for whatever reason, officials must think it ain't coming or will stall long enough to give more time

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Coming in as a strong 3 or a 4?

Tuesday looks to be a bad day to be an oil commodities trader.

--p!

[Bluebear]

7. Or possibly a *5*!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x3925643

[Dogmudgeon]

9. Would not surprise me

The Gulf is so warm that I'm surprised it hasn't spawned more tropical waves this year. I think the temperature is around 90F in most of the gulf. That's like bathwater.

If the deep water is cooler, though, it might churn enough of it up so that it stalls and weakens. I think Ivan did that last year.

The thing that has kept the hurricanes from going up the East Coast is that the water has become abruptly colder right before Long Island. This may be one of the thermohaline current change effects. But the East Coast's luck won't hold out forever.

--p!

[tkmorris]

10. A few points

The depth of the warm water layer will NOT cause a storm to stall. Storms stall due to other reasons. When they do however the depth of the warm water layer and the degree of churning can cause them to weaken since the churning draws up cooler waters. This will not be the case with Katrina. She will not stall and the warm water layer is not only unusually warm it is also rather deep.

As for cooler waters preventing storms from travelling up the eastern coast I am unsure what you are talking about. Tropical systems are steered by things happening above the surface, water temperature only affects theit ability to strengthen or weaken.

To the other poster: Katrina has ceased her southern movement. The turn northward will be happening today and so far the models seem right on the money. Expect steady strengthening with Katrina reaching Cat 4 by sometime early Sunday.

[Gay Green]

18. Take a look at this... HUGE potential for a * 5 *

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL



Note: wind speed is in knots. 135 knots equals 155 MPH. :scared:

[misanthrope]

8. Right now...

...nobody knows what this thing is going to do and won't have a better idea until it stops all southerly movement for a couple of hours.

[pitohui]

21. agreed misanthrope

officials aren't calling for evacuations in se louisiana

evacs cost time, money, & could trap some people in their cars because of the late start caused by original projections putting storm to the east

not an easy decision to make

best thing would be for storm to turn or weaken


not possible for many or most to get out or to even know where it's safe to go

for ivan i ended up evacuating right into path of the storm

my home didn't get one damn drop!

[HereSince1628]

11. Well, maybe she'll shift further west into less populated country-side

I am not wishing anything bad on folks in the country...just hoping this storm does the least amount of damage.

The projected path has moved a far bit, and the storm center is still a lot of miles away.

[HeeBGBz]

12. Yup, I'm in Gulfport

Gonna be a busy day.

But hey, gotta look on the bright side.

Jim Cantore's in town! Woo Hoo! Hubba Hubba!

[pointblank]

14. I used to visit Gulfport quite frequently

I had friends that lived right next to ya in Long beach...right at Marcie Lane and that beach highway (I forget the name)...I loved fishing down there, taking the ferry to that island and building bonfires on the beach at night :party: and all an hour from the French Quarter to boot (:toast: = :puke:) !!....I wish they still lived there!




:toast:


edited for spelling.

[YellerdawgFlorida]

15. Went through Frances and Jeanne last year

pretty close to ground zero. Frances was a 2, Jeanne a 3. We haven't recovered yet. My heart goes out to these folks. I hope everyone is taking this very seriously!

[pointblank]

16. Yea

I was down in Gulfport/Biloxi area in Septembe '02 and a hurricane (can't remeber which) was coming in...We were in a house about 150-2oo yards from the beach and man it got scary at one point...The hurricane was supposed to go on to New Orleans and wreak some major havoc, but it didn't thank god...We were supposed to go to a wedding there a day later, and by the time we got there it was nice and sunny!...Lets hope for a repeat.

[trof]

17. All 5 computer models now bunched around MS-LA line.

Looks like the projected paths are tightening up.
I'm on Wolf Bay, about 20-25 miles east of Mobile Bay.
Maybe we've dodged the bullet again.
Doesn't look good for NOLA.

[Tsiyu]

22. Be careful Swamp Rat!!!!!!!

and all the New Orleans DUers!!!!!!!!:grouphug: