Is Katrina the hurricane that will leave New Orleans high and dry?

[El Supremo]

We geologists have been asking this question for quite some time. The easier course of the Mississippi is through the Atchafalya River. The Army Corps of Engineers has diverted the river for 50 years. A big flood will overwhelm any man-made efforts.

http://www.polarinertia.com/march04/river01.htm

[SoCalDem]

1. What a TOXIC super-mess that will be though

I shudder to think of all that gunk being washed out into the gulf and into the neighborhoods ..Mother Nature always wins in the end,. Humans are mere specks of dust in the overall scheme of things..

[Bluebear]

7. I never thought of that SCD

You tend to think of the damage being done 'above ground'. You are right, it will be a colossal toxic wasteland.

[xray s]

2. the old river control structure

the weakest link?

http://www.tulane.edu/~bfleury/envirobio/enviroweb/FloodControl.htm

Despite several close calls, the ORCS still manages to keep the Mississippi River in check. How long this will last, however, is a matter of opinion. The Army corps claims to have the situation in control; the Mississippi will not divert to the Atchafalaya as long as they are there to prevent it. However, what if the control structures necessary to prevent the Mississippi's diversion to the Atchafalaya River were completely undermined and swept away during a flood such as the one in 1973? The ORCS has almost failed in the face of the Mississippi's might before, and it could still do so. Can the Army corps withstand nature's might indefinitely, or will physics and the Mississippi River win out in the end?

Researcher Raphael Kazmann at LSU suggested that the Mississippi would be the victor in the struggle of man against nature. In his 1980 study on the possible effects of the Atchafalaya diversion he states, “Probably the most important single conclusion reached by this study is that in the long run the Atchafalaya will become the principal distributary of the Mississippi River and that the current main-stream will become an estuary of the Gulf of Mexico…the final outcome is only a matter of time” (Kazmann 1).

[niallmac]

3. Of all the places on the Web I have wasted my time

DU has been the most informative. Never knew about the diversion. Back to the Google machine!

[Sal Minella]

4. Atchafalaya. I spent all day trying to remember that. New Yorker

magazine had a huge article on this many years ago -- That is the Channel the River Wants, and one of these days, she's going to go there.

[tg]

5. Read: The Control of Nature, by John McPhee

About one third of this book is an excellent discussion of this topic. It ranges from the natural process and the technical details of the effort, to the stories of the people involved and the societal impacts. The other two sections, "Cooling the Lava" about the response to the eruption on the Icelandic island of Heimaey, and "Los Angeles Against the Mountains" are also excellent. Great book, great subjects, great writing. -tg

Edited to add: this is the book version of the article mentioned by Idealist Hippie.

[SoCalDem]

8. I watched a great documentary the other night about Glen Canyon Dam

and the way the Colorado "used" to be.. It was full of old super 6 films from the 50's & 60's and what a gorgeous place they submerged, so that farmers could farm land that was never intended to be farmed, and so that large western cities could sprout up like warts on Mother Nature's ass.:(

[Sal Minella]

11. No wonder that New Yorker article was so good -- John McPhee

can make anything interesting. I didn't remember he was the author.

Many years ago when somebody handed me the book "Oranges" and told me it was a good read, I said "You're kidding, right?" Basin and Range, Building California, many others I've devoured since then.

[Horse with no Name]

6. I was directed to this fascinating link today by another DU'er

http://www.pbs.org/now/science/delta.html
http://www.pbs.org/now/transcript/transcript_neworleans.html

>>>>>>>>>snip
WALTER MAESTRI: A couple of days ago we actually had an exercise where we brought a fictitious Category Five hurricane--

DANIEL ZWERDLING: The worst.

WALTER MAESTRI: --the absolute worst, into the metropolitan area

DANIEL ZWERDLING: Walter Maestri is basically the czar of public emergencies in Jefferson Parish. It's the biggest suburb in the region.

WALTER MAESTRI: Well, when the exercise was completed it was evident that we were going to lose a lot of people we changed the name of the storm from Delaney to K-Y-A-G-B... kiss your ass goodbye... because anybody who was here as that Category Five storm came across... was gone.

DANIEL ZWERDLING: The American Red Cross lists the worst natural disasters that might strike America. They worry about earthquakes in California, and tropical storms in Florida. But they say the biggest catastrophe could be a hurricane hitting New Orleans.

[halobeam]

9. I'm almost sorry I read that link. Holy ****!!

I'm lighting a candle that this thing weakens and turns to it's least destructive course. America is already battered. This would be unbearable.

[Jawja]

10. Yes and isn't the LA National Guard

in Iraq? This is what the National Guard is for, I would think. There is no EXCUSE for states not to have their National Guard forces in place for an event of this magnitude.