I'm interested by the flame wars regarding evacuating New Orleans

[WilliamPitt]

Maybe I don't know enough about it.

But I do know a fair bit about hurricanes. Been through several of them. Gloria had the National Guard out on my street, and Bob (yeah, there was a hurricane named Bob, go figure) put a big goddam tree through the roof of my house...right through the top like a spear.

I know a bit about hurricanes, but I also know about the dozens of hurricanes I never experienced because they bloomed and then veered away. Hurricanes are capricious; they are totally unpredictable. In 72 hours, a hurricane can decide to go four different directions at any given time, power up or power down, or bag it altogether. There's a degree of predictability to it, but at the end of the day it's an animal that will do as it pleases.

I'd hate to be the city manager, in charge of a million people, staring at a hurricane 72 hours away and trying to decide whether to evacuate or not. Say 'Go,' and a million people get on the road...and the hurricane spins out over the Yucatan like it has the last fifty times and hits the city no harder than a hard rainstorm.

That's your ass, and rightly so. Probably more than a few people got robbed, hurt or killed during the exodus you ordered for, as it turned out, no good reason.

I also know a bit about the public servants who swing into action for these things, the ones who make the call when a call has to be made, the ones who get caught flat-footed when the weather decides to do something it has never done before. My mom was in charge of plowing in our city - the whole flippin' city - when the blizzard of '78 hit.

All the reports had the storm dropping a few inches and then moving out to sea. It came through and dropped about a foot...and then moved out to sea...and gained strength...and backed up...and stalled. For another two days. Three more feet of snow fell, and it was well and truly a humanitarian disaster. No one could get out, no one could get food, no one had been expecting it so no one was prepared, and the power was out all over the place.

My mom disappeared for a week, out on the streets and working the phones, and coordinating rescues, and finally came home and slept for two days straight.

So. I wouldn't want to be the one to make that call, and I have nothing but respect for those working to soften the unexpected blow. I'm surprised people are fighting about this. I guess it's easy to judge, or something.

EDIT: To add a great point made by Hekate...

There's so much actual evil emanating from the BFEE and VRWC that I think it makes people jumpy -- makes some of them see conspiracy when it's not there.

Bush didn't make the hurricane happen and he can't plot it's course.

He did send all or most of the National Guard troops to Iraq, where they can only sit and agonize over the home-folks. Governors all over the country utilize their state NGs to help out in times of natural disaster, and they have seen this train-wreck coming. That's Bush's doing.

Hekate

[Hekate]

1. Thanks Will, for being the voice of reason once again

There's so much actual evil emanating from the BFEE and VRWC that I think it makes people jumpy -- makes some of them see conspiracy when it's not there.

Bush didn't make the hurricane happen and he can't plot it's course.

He did send all or most of the National Guard troops to Iraq, where they can only sit and agonize over the home-folks. Governors all over the country utilize their state NGs to help out in times of natural disaster, and they have seen this train-wreck coming. That's Bush's doing.

Hekate

#Why won't the Chickenhawk cross the road?#

[KittyWampus]

35. Bush HAS Weakened FEMA, Slashed Funding & Sent National Guard

from LA along with their equipment overseas to Iraq.

Furthermore, very few people (including Will) have lived through a hurricane like the one in 38 that put large sections of East Hampton under water. I know people who ended up on the roof of their house. And that's how my folks were able to buy land out here... it was under water and noone wanted it so it was cheap.

[DemInDistress]

2. Katrina is the real deal...

No doubt residents heeded the warnings and in an orderly fashion a great percentage of people fled.For the many who stayed for a variety of reasons I send a Prayer from NYC. for this storm looks awesome and is taking no prisoners..

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

3. Or something

What strikes me is that there wasn't this kind of flaming during last year's hurricane season, even when New Orleans was threatened. Except for some disgusting speculation about "God's retribution" on the inhabitants of Florida, the discussion wasn't heated.

Are the times so different? Or is it the people posting? Thank goodness for the hide thread feature.

Me, I'm just heartsick for all those affected.

[melody]

13. Some want to think they're immune from dangers

They want to think this sort of thing only happens to "bad folk". They want to think they're somehow too smart or moral to be broadsided by the natural world. We here in California hear it whenever there is an earthquake - the same kind of talk.

You can't run from the capriciousness of life. It will find you, whereever you are. The best you can do is hold on tight, help others when you can, and extend a little mercy to those in the path of the storm.

My fingers are crossed for everyone in NO and the whole region.

[KitchenWitch]

4. Good post

Although I am certain that contingency planning for getting the carless out of New Orleans could have been done years ago, the reality is, it was not. Yes, be angry about that, let it fuel a change.

Be angry that the National Guard, whose mission it is to act in these types of situations, is instead in Iraq, where they cannot fulfill said mission.

But please remember how difficult and stressful this storm will be in the coming months upon said city officials, no matter how short sighted they may have been.

[steve2470]

5. I posted a thread similar to yours, giving the civil servants a break

Some of my colleagues would not hear of it.

In defense of NOLA and LA officials.....


Granted, I've never been in government or disaster preparedness. Here's my points:

1- Hurricanes are still unpredictable, even with our technology.
2- To call a mandatory evacuation without "good proof" would subject the officials to ridicule, disbelief and possible lawsuits. Yes, you read right. Some people would sue and win.
3- If mandatory evacuations are called every time a hurricane enters the gulf, after a while some people are going to tune out and just sit there.
4- Some people will not leave no matter what.
5- If I lived in New Orleans and had resources, I think I'd be high tailing it out of town pretty early. I live 50 miles inland in Florida, so I've gotten pretty relaxed about hurricanes except for last year. Ugh.

I'm not saying they have done a perfect job, but I can see why the Mayor waited. The mayor does seem like a decent dude. Just my gut feeling.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4488419

[expatriot]

22. Saying we are blaming the civil servants is like saying we're blaming the

soldiers for the Iraq mess. In both cases it is the fault of the policy makers, the executives.

1- Hurricanes are still unpredictable, even with our technology.

Everyone knew the shit was hitting the fan 12 hours ago. Enough time to get those people out even with no pre-existing evac plan.

2- To call a mandatory evacuation without "good proof" would subject the officials to ridicule, disbelief and possible lawsuits. Yes, you read right. Some people would sue and win.

Everyone knew the shit was hitting the fan 12 hours ago. Enough time to get those people out even with no pre-existing evac plan.

3- If mandatory evacuations are called every time a hurricane enters the gulf, after a while some people are going to tune out and just sit there.

Everyone knew the shit was hitting the fan 12 hours ago. Enough time to get those people out even with no pre-existing evac plan.

4- Some people will not leave no matter what.

What does "mandatory" mean? Just as convicted murderers would not choose to serve their prison time unless forced to by the full power of the law... police action could be used to make everyone heeds to the order.

[crispini]

34. Oh, c'mon, get real.

Police action to make sure people evacuate? That's insane! You want the cops to go and get all Gestapo like and drag unwilling citizens from their homes? That's absolutely, positively nuts. Sit still for a minute and think about what that would be like.

[Land Shark]

6. Given we've konwn the risk for decades now, and the possible catastrophe

calling for an evacuation should not be an embarrassment ... it's akin to calling out all fire trucks based on a credible report of a large fire...really the only responsible thing to do.

So, as far as evacatuation goes, it's balancing 'only recently hit Cat 5' vs. 'saw something coming at NO for days and knew of the potential for decades" in terms of the critique of planning many will make.

People are fighting (some) because there's a lot of emotion in the air. As there should be.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Let me put my emergency worker's hat

I did disaster relief, and yes this is 20\20 quarterbacking, but what I used to tell my people is... develop a plan (this includes evacuation and how to it and all of that) that plan is on the shelf and is practiced every so often, so everybody knows what to do. The way it looks from the safety of my house... it looks that the achilles heel to the NO plan was evacuation, or rather lack of a plan to evacuate the poor and the hungry that cannot move otherwise.

If, and I will worst case this, the Super dome goes under water the people there will be trapped and no, not the whole structure will go down, but the stagnant water will do things that are quite amusing

Now politically, there will be a price to pay... and for this, the pugs are not fully guilty (even if they defunded a lot of it), but the ones who will pay are those in elected offices, including the President. That is the other effect... and rule of thumb, those in charge are held responsible, and we are about to be treated to quite possibly the worst disaster since oh... Andrew.

Now ironic both Junior and Senior are in power when these Cat 5s come to shore.

[Horse with no Name]

8. I understand what you are saying

However, New Orleans is a different animal and should have been treated as such.
I'm not going to second guess it now--but the mayor of New Orleans was on TV at 10:00 on Saturday night.
He laid it all on the line.
He said (paraphrased) "I can't order a mandatory evacuation because of the logistics would involve evacuating hospitals. The city attorneys were trying to get that exempted before they could issue a mandatory evacuation. He said, in no uncertain terms, to get out of the city."
I believe at that time they should have started loading up buses and getting those people out of town. They knew Saturday night it was going to hit and it was going to hit hard.
The Red Cross deemed that there wasn't ANY safe shelter in New Orleans, therefore, they wouldn't put a shelter in there. They didn't want to imply safety where there wasn't any.
This is a collossal failure to the poor people of NOLA--but the failure doesn't necessarily lie with the mayor--he told people who should have been listening.
It lies with budget cuts made by this administration and the outsourcing of public safety to corporations for profit.

[pnorman]

20. "the outsourcing of public safety to corporations for profit"

I saw some mention of that earlier, but can't locate it again. Can anyone here supply enough details so I can get started Googling it?

pnorman

[Horse with no Name]

24. Here you go--this should help you get started

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4480507

[pnorman]

27. Thanks. That was the one I had seen earlier here but had misplaced the URL

Thanks. And here's what I found on DU just a few minutes ago: http://www.bestofneworleans.com/dispatch/2004-09-28/cover_story.html
DU (assisted by Google) is my irreplaceable resource. I don't know what I'd do without them! (Yeah, I know ... I'd read a book or something).

pnorman

[Fleshdancer]

9. I personally don't find fault with the timing, but....

I just can't help thinking that the plan could have been better. I also take issue with the fact that so many of LA's National Guard are stationed in Iraq along with the equipment that should be used for disaster relief this week in LA.

I wonder why the busses were used to take people to the super dome which should be used as a shelter of "last resort" instead of taking these people out of the city. I wonder why FEMA funding was cut for a coastal state that also accounts for 25% of domestic oil production. I get angry at the fact that people started to leave the super dome in search of food because they didn't know that food wasn't provided.

I know it will be written off as ridiculously partisan, but I'm pissed that the President is STILL on vacation at a time when the country fears the loss of an entire city.

It's difficult not to get emotional at times like this. I know the people in NO are working harder than they have ever worked to evacuate as many people as possible and to keep the people at the shelters safe...I just wish they had a more efficient plan at their disposal.

[Gemini Cat]

10. People are flaming because they are scared.

I know I am.

[newswolf56]

26. I am not just scared -- I am terrified.

Though I live perhaps 3000 miles from the storm itself, the storm's consequences -- among them a 15 to 25 percent reduction in the U.S. fuel supply -- could literally destroy the nation's economy. And given its absolute hostility to social services (not to mention its vindictive scorn of everyone who is not rich enough to be part of the oligarchy) the Bush Administration would do absolutely NOTHING to mitigate the joblessness, homelessness, famine and -- yes -- death by starvation that will surely follow such a fuel-supply curtailment. Moreover there is compelling evidence Bush and his corporate cronies would actually welcome such a disaster: not only would they profit obscenely from the skyrocketing cost of oil, food and virtually everything else; Bush and his corporate barons would also achieve the fulfillment of one of their paramount goals: the total subjugation of the working class -- the reduction of all of us to abject wage-slavery, so desperate we would accept whatever few pennies per hour the oligarchy chose to offer.

Bottom line, this storm could be the end of America as we know it -- forever. Damn right I'm terrified.

[wli]

11. partisan politics creating a disaster

one
two
three

adding up to a knockout punch.

[steve2470]

12. very good post, Bush and the repugs. deserve a good hard knock nt

[Land Shark]

14. buzzflash is headlining the huge budget cuts to NO hurricane planning

www.buzzflash.com
link is
<http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4200/is_20050606/ai_n14657367>

[gatorboy]

15. Great post.

Deserving of it's own thread.

[Horse with no Name]

18. Outstanding compilation

:applause:
Seriously. Deserves its own thread.

[Bluebear]

21. You really need to post an original thread with that info

:toast:

[wli]

23. posted! cheers! n/t

[donheld]

16. The land, and people, in the path is well below sea level

IMHO that makes a big difference

[newswolf56]

17. Maybe I missed something, but I haven't seen anybody denounce...

the rank-and-file rescue workers, and the only denunciations of the leadership I have seen (and participated in) focused on two legitimate topics.

One of these is the malevolent, viciously anti-working-class attitude of the Bush Administration, which (1) chortles with glee at the obscene profits generated by the (worsening) petroleum crisis even as it (2) slashes funds for emergency services and (3) -- obscenity of obscenities -- privatizes disaster relief into profit-centers for its friends in the corporate oligarchy. Whatever troubles afflict the people of New Orleans in the wake of Katrina will be multiplied a thousandfold by these attitudes and the policies derived therefrom.

The second denunciation rightfully condemns the Bush-appointed Homeland Security colonel who was gloating over what the hurricane will do to oil prices -- laughing that if he could get to his stock broker, he would dump all his wealth into oil futures. This is classic Marie Antoinette, "let-them-eat-cake" jeering at those of us who are already being thrust deeper into inescapable poverty by fuel prices and will undoubtedly be wiped out when the price hits $4 or $5 or even $6 a gallon -- as indeed it may because of this storm. To sneer at us that way -- and yes, when it comes from a plutocratic pig I always take such sneering personally -- is like some deliberate outrage from the age of Dickens: almost too grotesque for words, but nevertheless perfectly representative of the Bush Administration's attitude to those of us who have to work for a living.



Edit: typo.

[wli]

28. can I get a source on the Homeland Offense Gestapo dragnet?

Particularly how it's taking priority over actual evacuation into shelters/etc.?

[newswolf56]

29. Not sure what you're asking. The colonel's remarks about oil futures...

were broadcast live over WWL-TV about five hours ago. The long delays inflicted on people at the SuperDome by searches for drugs and weapons -- which apparently ended in time to get the refugees in out of the rain -- were also covered by WWL. However, there's no way (at least that I know of) to link to specific segments in a TV broadcast, so I don't know what else I can tell you.

[wli]

30. That's okay. Thanks for that info. It was helpful as it was. n/t

[expatriot]

19. Bush sure as hell could've done something today (yesterday)

There are a million things he could have done (along with state officials who are Democrats)to get everyone out of that city within 12 hours.

Noone I have seen is saying anything about city managers doing anythign 72 hours in advance.

I haven't seen any of the flame wars you're talking about.

[dxstone]

25. We see eye-to-eye once again, Will!

In the ONLY one of these oft-panic-laced threads that I personally posted on last night, I wrote:

--------------

Let's hope that the news services have overstated the threat...

Let's hope it's not the major terrible cataclysm they all do seem to be predicting.
All your points are correct; I'm just trying to be optimistic here. New Orleans has been there for something around two centuries; they must have some decent contingency plans at least... and all ANYONE can do at this point is hope for the best.

I agree that resources that could help in these emergencies have been systematically looted by this misadministration for nearly 5 years straight now, and we all know how helpful the neocon/bidness cabal's blind-eye policies on global warming have been.

And god yes, who in America REALLY doesn't hate that nastly little Gollum-creature scuttling and creeping and skulking about in the White House on all fours with a dead fish in his teeth and two Secret Service guys with low-voltage cattle prods leading him around and getting him to sit up straight and perform his tricks when need be?
I would blame him personally for this hurricane if I could, but THAT would sound a bit too silly, even for me.

On the other hand, and being DEADLY serious for a moment, I'm really quite sure that if Butcho COULD send titanic hurricanes to destroy whole cities right here in America, he WOULD. Just for the FUCK of it. I have NO doubt about that.
Would probably be good for his poll numbers, too.
They used to say that nothing sells like sex... but in fact, as has been proven to a truly frightening degree by the ass-hats in this mad-tea-party admin, NOTHING sells like fear.

So let's wait and see. If it's like nothing they've ever seen, then they don't KNOW what it will do. Maybe it'll alter course, or hitting land will knock most of the wind out of it, as so often seems to be the case with these things.
Let's just hope for the best for now, that's all I'm saying.
Much luck to you, New Orleans!
d

------------

So, patting myself on the back once again for obviously keeping so well-abreast of such illustrious and learned company as yourself, I leave you, Mr. Pitt, with three questions:

1: How come you make MONEY doin' this, and I ain't got squat?

2: Hey, y'know where I could maybe make ME some o' that there fancy writin' money?

3: Kin I borrow a 20-spot off'n ya?

[ScreamingMeemie]

31. An ounce of prevention has always superseded a pound of cure.

While I haven't really seen the kind of flames you speak of (I have only seen some grotesque attempts at humor), it will always amaze me that public officials don't overreact in these times. For, with a hurricane of whatever magnitude barreling down at you, I'd rather be wrong and suffer thousands of crabby citizens, than be right, and suffer the loss of one. :hi:

[ClintonTyree]

32. I agree 100% Will........

these people are doing all they can under tremendous pressure. There's a plan in place and they have to stick to it. To vary from that plan could result in even MORE death and destruction. I'm not a praying man, but I've been saying a few words to "Someone", and I hope that if that Someone exists, he/she/it hears them.

[malaise]

33. I agree with you 100%

They cannot predict with certainty as we see right now. They did the best they could. Here in Jamaica our government officials face these decisions with regularity and no one will make a decision to move people with more than 24 hours notice. They can't because if you get it wrong, it is worse.

Look at this morning - it will be Gulfport, Mississippi that takes the worst of this, but given the info they had since Saturday and the vulnerability of NO, they had to move the people. Now they can be grateful that they are being spared the worst of Katrina.

[seabeyond]

36. agreed n/t

[AnnInLa]

37. As a regular DU poster, I was offended at some of the GD posts

The actual calamity itself should be above politics. As alot of you sit in your homes in the west, midwest, the north and blame people, you simply have no idea of the logistics of trying to move so many people out of N.O.....or, out of Miami, Houston or other big city. "Should have gotten them out...planes, busses, army, etc etc"...crap, what are you going to do with more than 100,000 people? Where are you going to send them? What are you going to do with the special-needs people? Food, clothes. Our Louisiana and New Orleans officials have done the best they can with what they have. After all of this is over, then you can second guess everyone. Yall are good at that, sitting at your computers, and knowing so much about Louisiana.

Will, you wanted flame...you got it. I don't give a shit.

I'm going back to the LA forum now, yall rave on.