So...Let's talk about the NEXT hurricane

[SoCalDem]

Will the next state governor or mayors of towns likely to be in the path take PRE-emptive plans and really get serious about evacuating people..

The term "mandatory evacuation' is said with a wink-wink, but the cost in lives and time & resources to rescue people after the fact is staggering..and it takes vital people and services away from the repair/restore/evaluate stage after the disaster.

Most communities have some form of transport available to them (besides individual cars).

There are buses, trains, planes,cruise ships, military equipment (not in Iraq)... even 18 wheelers..

People with pets or elderly/frail relatives need to HAVE A PLAN and plan to evacuate EARLY.. Locations well to the west of the hurricane should be the avenue of escape. There have to be pl;aces that could be rented/loaned for the purpose of providing emergency shelters for evacuees WITH pets (in carriers of course)..

We have a 108K Home Base right her in town that would at least provide some shelter, and I am sure that a neighboring city could arrange for power & water to be re-activated for a few days until more permanent digs could be arranged.

People need to know that their community even HAS a real plan and then formulate their own plans around it.

People might actually leave if the power and gas were shut off just before the storm.. Right now , people "hope" they retain their power (even though most lose it pretty early on)..

If you knew 3 days before a likely storm that you would definitely not have water/gas/elec, and there was a place for you and your pets to hang out for a few days, wouldn't you be more likely to plan to evacuate?


The Kamikaze plans during and immediately after don't seem to be working..

When people run for local/state and even national office, people need to pay attention to their critical thinking and skills. If they are just a pretty face with the gift of gab, perhaps they would be better off hosting a show on CNN, than being mayor,councilperson,congressperson,senator.

[Nikki Stone 1]

1. This is an excellent point

Whether it's hurricanes or earthquakes or other disasters.

[whatever4]

2. That is bothering me, Peak season not until mid-late Sept.

We knew by spring they said this would be a bad hurricane season...and the season doesn't even peak the third week in September.

So this might not be the only hurricane they see there this year. Chances are it's not. Perhaps not even the only large one. That's something not good to think about right now, but a possibility to be aware of.

[theboss]

3. I just don't think you can evacuate a million people on a model

Florida ran into this problem last year. They evacuated seemingly half the state, the storm shifted, and the evacuees ended up right in the path again.

Our cities are too big (note: I am not against big cities) and our infrastructure is not designed to deal with the kind of mass withdrawals necessary.

A first step I would consider is a large revamping of Civil Defense. This has pretty much been a joke since the 1950s and is probably needed now more than ever, based on our over-reliance on technology, the risk of terrorism, etc.

It probably wouldn't help in New Orleans in this situation because there is no high ground. But cities need to designate large shelters well in advance, alert the public, have practice drills, and keep large supplies of medicine, MREs, cots, etc nearby. In DC, I think most people would think the Armory is the natural place to begin along with maybe the MCI center, Georgetwon University's gym, someplace at Howard, etc.

[SoCalDem]

5. True, BUT

for pet people like me, I would definitely evacuate early if I knew I had a place to go WITH them..Waiting til the last minute might work for young healthy childless people, but the early evacuees should be the ones who often get "left behind"..

The social services dept knows exactly who is on assistance, and when a storm is coming at the end of the month, they KNOW these people do not have the resources to pay their way out of town..

[theboss]

6. That's a ton of pressure to put on social services

Keep in mind that these are generally under-staffed, overworked people to begin with - who are going to have to be evacuating themselves in such a situation.

I'm not trying to be a naysayer as I think this is a hugely important issue. I just don't think it's as simple as saying "Here's a bus pass; everyone out of town" as some on this board seem to believe. I mean, we have posts asking why battleships just can't go to the SuperDome and pick everyone up.

I really think the New Orleans is a bad model for any type of civil service emergency, because generally an entire city is not going to be utterly incapacitated, short of a nuclear explosion.

[jpak]

4. Some things have got to change

Currently (and correct me if I'm wrong) FEMA does not reimburse for evacuation expenses.

That alone may deter people from evacuating when they really should.

FEMA should have a modest per diem reimbursement for all evacuees that can submit legitimate evacuation expense receipts.

Some people will not evacuate if they have to leave their pets behind - even when they should.

States under (and surrounding) mandatory evacuation areas should force hotels/motels to accommodate pets until the crisis passes.

If hotels/motels incur "pet damages" FEMA should reimburse them.

States in the evacuation area should temporarily suspend gas and "hotel" taxes in order to reduce the costs of evacuees. FEMA could reimburse state and local governments for lost revenue.

Local governments should have mandated plans to transport evacuees using school and public transit buses. FEMA should also reimburse these costs.

Anything that can be done to induce people to evacuate should be seriously considered.

[trof]

7. Ok, here's the problem.

Not that you don't put forth some good ideas, but I just went through this.

We're 10 miles north of the gulf on a bay. There's a big barrier island (inhabited) between us and the gulf. We have already decided that we'll stay if it's a 3 or less. Even if it's a direct hit. Our house has survived that and worse.

When I went to bed Saturday night, Katrina was a high2-low 3.
Probably going in around NO Monday morning.
When I got up Sunday morning it was a 4 going to 5.
By Sunday it's too late to go. Saturday was the day to make the decision. By Sunday roads are clogged, all rooms east of us were booked. I'd rather be here in any kind of hurricane than on a highway somewhere. So by Sunday, we were committed.

Also, hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable. Especially during the last few hours before landfall. Sure, you can tell pretty early on if it's going to hit South Carolina instead of the Florida panhandle. But especially when one comes into the "amphitheater" of the Gulf of Mexico, it's a crapshoot where it winds up.

With a change of just a few degrees in its path it could have gone to Mexico, or Mobile. If it had gone into Mobile I probably wouldn't be writing this.

On the other hand, if you evacuated 3 or 4 days before it hits, you'd spend a lot of time away from home and a lot of money on motels, gas, and food, needlessly.

You make your best guess.
We evacuated for Dennis, and it was a non-event here.
We evacuated for Ivan, which was a direct hit. The eastern eye wall passed directly over my house. Damage to the structure was very minimal. Mainly just to an attached screened porch.

Again, you evaluate and make your best guess.
Sometimes you guess right, and sometimes you don't.
On top of all that, I'm fortunate enough to be able (physically and financially) to evacuate. Some people just can't.
Just my 2 cents.
;-)