Heads up Charleston, South Carolina, Hurricane Ophelia is looking at You!

[Up2Late]

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) website, which I've found to be VERY accurate over the last 2 years that I've known about it, has Hurricane Ophelia making land fall as a Cat.2, very close to Charleston, SC in about 72 hours.

It is a little early to start worrying about it, but you might want to keep track of this one. If TSR gets this one right too, I'm going to be very impressed.

NOTE: This is the 69 Hour graphic, which does update it's self. I'm posting this just after 1:15am September 10, 2005.

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>

[thefloyd]

1. Chertoff probably did not want

another batch of brownie fuckups

[NoSheep]

2. Thank you for the info. We are in the Raleigh NC area-3 hrs NW of

Wilmington-looks like it is coming our way. TD possible-and we do need the rain. My fingers are crossed for the coastal areas.

[Lex]

6. And I'm in Durham and I'm in charge of making sure the

family beach house on Topsail Island is boarded up, if need be. Arrgggh.

As long as landfall is south of Wilmington, I think that property will be okay. Memories of Fran, however . . .

I've practically gotten a nervous twitch watching this Ophelia over the last 2 days!

[mmonk]

7. Yep

Just hope it isn't another Fran. My neighborhood looked like a war zone. My cousin in Charleston said she wouldn't ride another one out after staying when Hugo hit. It will be interesting to see if she stays.

[Momof1]

3. It's a Naval town, & they survived Hurricane Hugo fine

I should know, my brother was stationed there, and he lived in a trailor at the time. He could only take his family 25 miles inland, cause he had to be at work at 7am, the next morning.

[havocmom]

4. Meanwhile, FEMA probably looking at WV

again

[Lex]

8. LOL!

You're probably right. 'Morans.'

[mmonk]

10. Yeah

they are mobilizing there as we speak. They are kicking themselves for sending hurricane victims there in the path of another ;-)

[havocmom]

11. YOMANK! Brandy everywhere!

THAT is funny!

[Spike from MN]

16. No no no! FEMA was anticipating this whole thing so

they sent planes full of evacuees bound for Charleston, SC to Charleston, WV instead. C'mon. Cut them some slack, They were way ahead of EVERYONE on this one. Sheesh. Can everyone here just stop playing the blame game and let FEMA continue to use their tried-and-true dart-board method to determine where to send the evacuees. So far, it has proven to be 100% successful. That is, unless you ask Barbara Bush. Luckily her opinion didn't count because they were only surveying living human beings.

[Corgigal]

5. I'm getting a new roof

I'm getting a new roof. If I don't drown first.

[oasis]

9. While Chimpyboy ponders whether he should rush to the scene "this time".

[whistle]

12. Here is another plot...

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-16A/ctrack.html


WTNT41 KNHC 100309
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING
THE EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 985 MB...
AND THE THAT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 65
KT 25-30 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT A
COMBINATION OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 055/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE
THE THE SHORT TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 10 KT. THE
REASON FOR THE ACCELERATION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT MAY BE RELATED TO
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR OPHELIA TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IN 72-96 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST AND NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE FORECAST THE CURRENT
MOTION...AND IF THE MOTION CONTINUES THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER ADVISORIES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST OPHELIA TO REACH 85 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THAT BEING
SAID...THE CURRENT SHEAR...ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND BROAD STORM STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
HOW LONG THE SHEAR WILL LAST IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
EVOLVE NEAR OPHELIA. AN EXTRA COMPLICATION IS THAT OPHELIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C...EXCEPT
WHEN IT PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE SLOW MOTION OVER
RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM WATER MAY ALLOW THE STORM TO UPWELL COOLER
WATER AND INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE IF IT STRENGTHENED LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.



FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 31.0N 76.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 76.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.5N 77.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 77.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 32.5N 79.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[Corgigal]

13. aka

They don't know the strength or the track. A fun, weather channel, weekend for ME.

[Lecky]

14. Charleston, SC here

Thanks for the heads up, haven't seen anything on TV about it although I haven't been watching much lately.

[Tim4319]

15. South Carolina will be fine, they have Bob Jones University!

I'm sure they will be well prepared!

[Up2Late]

17. UPDATE: The track has been adjusted a little bit North to Myrtle Beach

But only as a Cat.1 Hurricane. Here's the 45 hour forecast Wind Field.

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>