NHC Public Advisory #35: Hurricane Ophelia

[Penndems]

Link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 142034
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH STRONG WINDS RAKING THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE
LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS TONIGHT... AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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000
WTNT71 KNHC 142034
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

35.3N 75.4W 35 1 X X 36 NANTUCKET MA X X 3 7 10
36.0N 74.1W 12 5 2 1 20 HYANNIS MA X X 2 8 10
37.5N 72.2W X 4 9 2 15 BOSTON MA X X 2 7 9
BERMUDA X X X 3 3 PORTLAND ME X X 1 6 7
CHARLESTON SC 1 1 1 X 3 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 7 7
MYRTLE BEACH SC 9 2 1 X 12 EASTPORT ME X X X 7 7
WILMINGTON NC 99 X X X 99 ST JOHN NB X X X 6 6
MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X X X 5 5
CAPE HATTERAS NC 40 X X X 40 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7
NORFOLK VA 14 4 2 X 20 HALIFAX NS X X X 6 6
OCEAN CITY MD 2 8 5 1 16 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 4 7 2 13 SYDNEY NS X X X 3 3
NEW YORK CITY NY X 1 7 3 11 EDDY POINT NS X X X 4 4
MONTAUK POINT NY X X 5 5 10 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 2 2
PROVIDENCE RI X X 4 6 10

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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[whistle]

1. Look at how this storm has been tracking.....

<note, you'll need Java>

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-16A/JavaPlot.html

[Penndems]

2. I've been watching this hurricane since it was in the Atlantic

Is is me, or has this storm moved in the goofiest manner? I've never seen a hurricane that kept backtracking as much as Ophelia.

It hung off the Florida coast for, like, what? THREE DAYS? Then it moves forward and backward, forward and backward, as if it couldn't decide where to hit (due to the northeasterly TROF, I have to assume)!

The only other hurricane that looked this odd to me was Dennis. When it was moving into the Gulf of Mexico, Dennis looked as if it had four "eyes". :shrug: