DON'T make fun of Tropical Storm Rita

[drthais]

until you've gone to the Weather Underground
and seen the latest computer models
the most recent of whch (BAM)
has the damned thing hitting New Orleans
and THAT'S after it gets into the gulf
where the warm waters are

this is not something to take lightly
so knock it off

I'm here in Baton Rouge
and I've just about had it
with those who pontificate without being completely informed

sorry, but everybody down here is a feakin mess

[TallahasseeGrannie]

1. I'm one who laughed

at the concept of the strongest tropical storm ever, just because it WAS funny.

But as a fellow gulf coastal resident, I hear your fear and I have been in the bullseye before. But I have NEVER experienced what you went through recently and I think I might move back north if I had.

You stay safe and get what you need to get done and get out early. And try to get into a calm place inside. I'll BET you are all a freaking mess. God love you all.

No more hurricane jokes. Promise.

Sorry.

[liberalitch]

5. Oh, please just one more.... then I'll stop.

Why, is your mom's name rita?
Sorry I teach ninth graders..... sometimes it rubs off.

[drthais]

6. thanks for that

we here in Baton Rouge
will probably be ok if we are prepared
as we always are
but all of my family
who lost so much
and who are living hand to mouth
I don't know

my sister went into N.O. today
to see what she could salvage from her home
off of Bayou St John by City Park
she got some stuff, sighed
and called me to say
"I don't know how anybody can come back here-not now...
it smells so strongly of death and there's muck and destruction
just everywhere - every single house every single street..
it will be a year or more before my house will be liveable"

[jus_the_facts]

2. ((((((((HUGS)))))))

....I'm up here in Monroe and I completely agree...I'd started a thread poll in the Lounge when Kartina entered the Gulf...the question was...where will Katrina end up...the majority answered the Florida panhandle because that's where all the *projections* were stating it would hit....instead it was much farther west....as I feared when I posted that poll as the waters below Louisiana were the warmest in the Gulf and they still are in fact...my hunch was spot on and look what's happened since. :(

Hang in there...I have many relatives in BR as well...we're still tryin' to take care of people up here too. :hug:

[alarimer]

3. Looks more like Texas/north Mexico

According to the National Hurricane Center. I don't know where Weather Underground gets their info but I don't really trust them. Here is the path forecasted so far:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/220538.shtml?3day

[drthais]

7. hey-trust them...

they're as reliable as the Nt'l Hurricane Center
the only difference being
that they run a series of computer models
several times a day

they're not quacks
and this is where we first saw
and realized
that Katrina was not going to hit Florida

[SoCalDem]

4. Rita

probabilities by city

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT3+shtml/182100.shtml

[tkmorris]

8. Not saying it won't go to N.O. but..........

The BAMM is not a good model for tropical systems at all. It seems to have initiated the center of Rita further north than the other model runs did, which has proved to be correct since the center appears to have relocated further north. That doesn't necessarily mean it's track will verify however.

Look for the next runs of the GFDL and UKMET. If they start shifting the track northward it's time to sweat.

[Totally Committed]

9. I will keep you in my thoughts, and my prayers, such as they are

these days. Stay safe.

TC

[Spangle]

10. I can totaly relate. But I "deal" with things with laughter and Jokes

I wasn't involved in the other and I haven't read it.

I'm one of those that was hit 3 times last year. We are still rebuilding. Getting kitchen Cabinets next week! Woo Woo! Almost there.

I'm running a little gun shy myself these days. Even if it's going to miss us, I'm watching every little report, etc. The only thing that keeps us going is joking.

During the 2nd one last year, we filmed my Hubby doing a weather report like the "crazy" reporters do during a hurricane. You know the ones.. standing out in the wind, to show us how "fast and hard" the wind is blowing. With debris flying around, etc.

The winds weren't at a dangorus point. WE are not totaly stupid. He put on one of those little caps with blades on it.. to check/show wind speed. Even pointed at a neighbors roof, to show the shingles flapping, etc. That is how we entertianed our selfs during "Frances", which took DAYS to pass over. (so it seemed)

[Bluebear]

12. I do too, spangle. I think we are misinterpreted sometimes.

If it weren't for nervous jokes I would be a basket case about some things.

[Carni]

11. I am NOT laughing

I don't think two tropical storms forming in a similar manner to Katrina is any reason to laugh.

[gulfcoastliberal]

13. I trust the NHC over weather underground

WU lobbyist Rick Santorum wants to eliminate NOAA and the NHC.

[starroute]

14. Weather Underground gets its info from NOAA and NHC

It just uses prettier graphics.

At the moment, one out of five computer models has shifted the storm track from Texas to show a hit on New Orleans -- not a good thing to see, but still a very low-probability scenario.

The map linked above only shows a 5% chance of Rita coming within 75 miles of the Gulf coast by Wednesday. It doesn't include the Texas coast because that's more than 3 days out.

So keep an eye on the forecasts -- and on Jeff Masters' weather blog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), which is currently advising people to evacuate the Keys -- but don't freak yet.