I missed Katrina landfall by about 10 miles, here's my Rita prediction

[karlrschneider]

From 8/28:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4487871

I'm putting Rita for now between Lake Charles and Jennings, LA. Might revise it next day or 2 but that's what I'm seeing right now.

edit: sorry, typed 8/18, meant 8/28. just noticed.

[merh]

1. Is that one the western part of LA?

And what does that mean for the MS Gulf Coast? :scared:

:shrug:

We can't take any more. :cry:

[Catherine Vincent]

4. Ain't that the truth!

:hug: to you Merh! Let's hope this one goes nowhere.

:hi:

[merh]

7. Thanks for the hug, cat! :-)

I don't want it to come to you either - maybe we can will it to fizzle out. :scared:

:hug: So good to see you! :hug: :loveya:

[liberalnurse]

8. Oh Merh........

This is the first time I've seen you post since the disaster. I thought of you daily.O8)

My heart has been in my throat. I'm sure you have poster prior to this so you don't have to repeat yourself with an update....a link would be nice if you want to share...

[merh]

11. Hey ya liberalnurse!!!

I am doing okay, just plugging along. Here are some links to let you know how things went and how things are going! It's a whole new world for me.

I am better off than most, my family and I survived. Now we just have to rebuild! Thanks so for your good wishes and concerns! :hug: :loveya:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4500959

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=3979282

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=3996837

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x4026770

:loveya: :hug: :loveya:

[karlrschneider]

13. Oh, wow, merh! We've been wondering about you!

Looks like you survived the tempest! :D
Don't DEPEND on my prognostications, it's just what I'm seeing from looking at the various wx maps as of now.

[merh]

16. I have a friend that is making the same prediction.

He showed me all the satelitte imaginery and the clouds and the shifting jet stream -- I just don't want any winds here!

I am a Katrina survivor!! I will just keep plugging along.

Thanks so for your good wishes and concern. Also thanks for this thread! :hug:

[WiseButAngrySara]

26. Hi Merh! Glad you're back, and I hope it doesn't come your way again!

(I also hope it doesn't come to the Houston/Galveston area either!) I signed the

(((((((((((((((((((((((Ripple Effect)))))))))))))))))))))

thread that was posted in your honor a few days ago!

[merh]

50. Hello WiseButAngrySara!

A belated welcome to DU! :hi:

I was overwhelmed by that repost of the ((((((Ripples Effect))))))) thread and all of the out pouring of love and support. I am honored that many found my thread inspirational. I just didn't know what to say. I hope that Rita goes away or hits some barely populated area. Enough is enough already.

Good luck to you - stay safe - thanks so much for your support. :hug:

:toast:

[WiseButAngrySara]

52. Thanks! And good luck to you, and you stay safe...

The ripple effect thread was indeed VERY inspirational, and it's karma I think, that you had posted it initially for another reason, and then when YOU needed the ripple effect, there DU was to send it back your way!

:hug: :hi:

[Feron]

47. Oh honey this Louisiana girl seconds that motion

I also survived Katrina and enough is enough. Not that I wish the storm on anyone ,but we've had our fill for a very long time.

Just Thank You Jesus the parish debris pick-up people are working our neighborhood tommorrow. We have an 8 foot pile of tree debris in our frontyard. Once the projectile pile is gone, I will feel somewhat better.

My house had three gigantic pine trees around it and during Katrina I watched one of them fall into my backyard. My biggest fear is that Rita will put one of the two remaining ones into my home. Right now, I'll just chill out and see what happens and hope for the best. If I think anymore about it then I will crack up. Shoot, I'm already 3/4ths of the way there already.

[merh]

51. Well, I have no house left after Katrina but I just got a FEMA trailer

and I really would hate it if that was taken too. :scared:

Welcome to DU Feron :hi: Stay safe and be careful! :pals:

[benburch]

2. You might be correct, and a couple of the models put it near there.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4821527&mesg_id=4821527

[merci_me]

3. That precidtion was 10 miles and about 10 hours out

By Sunday night, most of the weather forecasters where hedging their bets too.

Get back to us Friday morning, unless you have a Florida prediction.

[benburch]

5. That one is pretty solid... Direct hit on KW.

See the thread I linked in above.

[karlrschneider]

17. Yes, you are correct...I thought I had done one from Friday night but

it might have been on a different board, don't see it now. As to FL, I think just south of Key West as a Cat 1.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

6. They just said it could also hit Texas....

n/t

[KoKo]

9. Karl...for those of us unfamiliar...what lies in the wake of your

prediction. Is it pretty much a carbon copy of LA, East of NO? Oil Refineries, Wetland Habitats for birds and animals, big vacation homes, gated communities, and modest homes and ordinary folks who live mixed in?

What is that area like. Can you fill us clueless in a little more? What is the biggest economic problem if your area is hit. And, how does it affect the rest of us...and the "little folks?"

[karlrschneider]

12. See newsguyatl's post # 10 I think

There aren't any large metro areas in the area, it's the western portion of true Cajun country. Lots of marshland, not really any beaches to speak of. It might be the least bad place to hit. But there's no doubt in my mind there will be a Cat 3 or+ landfall at some point around next Sat or Sun. Please don't shoot the messenger. ;-)

[KoKo]

27. Thanks...I'll check it out...

no "shooting of messenger from me." :D We are all in this together. You have been here long enough to know...we gotta stick with our own for "reliable info." Although "some of our own" might not have been what we thought. :-)'s

Thanks!

[newsguyatl]

10. here's a map

and here's jennings, la, just east of lake charles.

[Jacobin]

31. Here's one model predicting Karl's prediction

[Quixote1818]

48. Yesterday that had it headed toward Brownsville now Houston

so it's possible it will swing further north. By tomorrow I think the models will be quite accurate. Today it's anyones guess?

I am sticking with Houston for now.

[donheld]

14. Karl, On what basis do you make these predictions?

Are you an amateur weather person, or a "psychic friend?"

[karlrschneider]

15. I've been a commercial pilot since 1963 and taught meteorology in

military and civilian ground schools for about 30 years. I look at the winds aloft analyses & forecasts and formulate a prediction from those. (I also have a degree in Aeronautical Engineering...University of Tulsa, which is helpful if not directly related.)

[Beausoir]

18. Well qualified if you ask me.

I tuned in regularly to your pre-Katrina comments. You were VERY accurate.

[ewagner]

20. I come up with a slightly different

opinion.

I looked at the winds aloft at 300mb and think it's going to steer it for the LA/TX coast...provided that...

The storm becomes large enough to be steered by the upper level winds.

If it doesn't then, most likely, it will be steered by the 850 -650 mb winds which are from a slightly different direction.

Just an opinion....at this point... :shrug:

[karlrschneider]

22. I was also considering the temps, the 300 mb levels seemed a bit too

cold compared with the storm's isotherms but of course that could change fairly quickly.

[ewagner]

32. True enough

and...

I'm only dealing with current data, not forecast.

good discussions going on here:

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=55258&Main=55017#Post55258

[karlrschneider]

36. Thanks for the link. That bit of NE flow could easily influence the storm

to a more northerly direction. (and also give a little kick to the circulation.)
We'll have more info in a few minutes as the new obs come in.

[donheld]

24. Very good

It's good to have someone with some training in the field to shead some light us on this for us.

[WolverineDG]

55. are you looking at the barometric pressure too?

i've seen in the past how storms go where the pressure is the lowest. any high pressure domes over texas or louisiana that might push the storm away from those areas?

dg

[Behind the Aegis]

19. hey KS

I am Ok to...actually a few miles north of Tulsa. There are reports now that the hurricane, if it makes landfall in Western LA or East Texas, it could come as far as Oklahoma (in a massive rainstorm). Has there ever been a hurricane (or remnants) to hit Oklahoma? Considering how hot is has been here the past few days will that hurt or help us? I know that "hot water" strengthens hurricanes, but what about "hot land?" Sorry, for the stupid questions, I have just always been curious. I lived in the east coast for many years and have been thru a number of large and small hurricanes.

[karlrschneider]

23. I'm over on Ft. Gibson lake but grew up in Tulsa...yes, we have gotten

quite a few significant rain events after hurricanes going up the SE Texas route but nothing severe as far as I can recall. "hot land" doesn't sustain a tropical cyclone, you need warm water to feed it. Which doesn't necessarily rule out some isolated tornados in the aftermath even this far north.

[AzDar]

21. Karl...I think it was you who posted the weekend before Katrina

hit, saying you had never seen a warning like the one being issued by the National Weather Service re: Katrina...Is that right?
When I read your post (if that was you), I woke my Hubby up; he fancies himself an amateur meteorologist, showed him the post, and he was STUNNED that more wasn't being done even at that time. A damned accurate call....

[karlrschneider]

25. Hi, Az...not really sure. I have a vague recollection of saying something

like that, and I seem to remember thinking that but can't say for sure if it was me. ;-)

[Blue_Roses]

28. that's the path that Hurricane Lili went in 2002

and it did alot of damage to that area...

very interesting info:D

[finecraft]

33. Was here in New Iberia for Lili in 2002

Went through winds clocked at over 100 mph at the airport. No electricity for a week. Trees down everywhere..and Surprise! No Red Cross or FEMA then either...until about a week after the storm hit. Could have been worse for us though. If Lili had moved just a little further to the East, they were predicting a 20' storm surge for New Iberia. Lili did a lot of damage all the way up to around Alexandria. That was one nasty storm....but nothing compared to Katrina.

[Blue Belle]

29. So if what you are predicting is true...

and if what I've heard time and time again from the 24 news cycle is correct... than wouldn't NOLA still be vulnerable?? From what I understand, the areas that are hit the hardest are the areas on the east side of a Gulf Hurricane. That wouldn't bode well for those in NOLA... right? Now I have no idea what Hurricanes are like (being from the Pacific Northwest), and I'm pretty sure the source I'm quoting is Scarborough... but is there any truth to that "east side" theory??

[Jacobin]

30. Hey. I'm in Lake Charles. Take That Back!!!!!!!!!!!!

However, I've been thinking between Port Arthur and Lake Charles, based on some of the models.

EEEEEK

[Pithlet]

34. My opinion isn't nearly as informed as Karlschneiders

I think it will hit closer to the LA/TX border. I wish it would stay out of the Gulf alltogether, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

[AnnInLa]

42. Hi Jacobin....Good luck to you!

I was thinking of all of those chem plants there where you live. What kinds of precautions do they take in case of hurricanes? That could be a total disaster if they started leaking, couldn't it? Do you usually evacuate or stay home? Well, here's to ya, cher'

[Jacobin]

44. If its above a 2, I leave

We are 30 miles from the gulf, so storm surges won't make it this far.

They shut down the plants before hand, so its usually not a problem.

Hang in there in Abbeville, you guys are closer to the gulf!

[xkenx]

35. Actually

the National Weather Service has gotten pretty good at predicting hurricane paths. As of now the forecast is for Rita to impact the central to east-central Texas coast later in the week. You can't possibly have better information than them. I don't think you should be making "Wet finger in the wind" predictions. People might actually be reading this and take action based on it.

[karlrschneider]

39. I tried to make it clear that my predictions should NOT be used to make

any serious decisions. And 'actually', I am using THEIR data, so it's neither better nor worse than what they have. Meteorology is still half science and half art even after years of satellite & hurricane hunter information. But erring on the side of security seems to be a better position. I wouldn't want anybody to -stay- or -leave- based solely on my own observations & opinions...nobody pays me for that sort of responsibility, nor could they. I'm just sayin'

[tedzbear]

37. I predict Houston will be under water by Sunday.

Hope I'm wrong...

[AnnInLa]

38. Well, that's me....thanks alot.

please be wrong

[karlrschneider]

40. Now I feel bad...I don't want the damn thing to hit ANYBODY, but it seems

pretty sure it's gonna be in that general area. To me, anyway, it's hard to want to be either right or wrong because of that. I guess I'll just hold out hope it doesn't snag any DUers. ;-)

[Jacobin]

41. Get ready, cher

mon ami, I fear we are in for a bashing.

[AnnInLa]

43. Yeah, that black line passes over my house

well. well. hmmm.

[cmf]

45. Boy, I hope not!

My mom and most of my family lives in Lake Chuck. My mom still has 6 Katrina evacuees living with her. :scared:

[karlrschneider]

46. Make sure they're on top of the latest info. At least, if I'm right, they

will be on the right (left) side of the system. If it wanders more westerly toward Houston, that would be worse for them. Keep them safe.

[Quixote1818]

49. If you weigh all the models, Houston has the highest prob.

na

[GOPAgainstGW]

53. Agree n/t

[jus_the_facts]

54. Looking at the Gulf water temperatures....I have to agree.....

....if Rita goes west towards cooler waters...then I'd be amazed. :shrug: