NHC Public Advisory Number 13 (next one at 8:00 p.m. EDT)

[Penndems]

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Take note of the last sentence in the Discussion:

"ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS."

Everyone along the Texas Gulf Coast should be securing their residences and making preparations to leave ASAP.
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 202048
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA
MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 202047
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

THERE ARE NO NEW DATA WHICH SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS SINCE THE 87-KNOT
PEAK SURFACE WIND MEASURED BY THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER...
THE 93-KNOT SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL...AND
ABOUT 100 KNOTS ON THE DOPPLER RADAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE AND AN IMPROVING
OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE RITA WITH A DEEP CIRCULATION UP TO 200 MB
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE LATTER WHICH BRINGS RITA TO 125 KNOTS.
HOWEVER SUCH INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

RITA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BY A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RITA TO
TURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS
TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
IS LARGER BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL BRING RITA TO THE TEXAS
COAST.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 24.0N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND


$$
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