Weather Channel: worst-case scenario for Houston - 600,000 homes gone

[highplainsdem]

Jim Cantore just mentioned this as the worst-case scenario for Houston from Hurricane Rita: Category 4, coming in from the south, 20-foot storm surge, and "600,000 homes gone." They're hoping it doesn't happen, but Cantore looked grim.

KHOU has lots of information on its http://www.khou.com website, including a storm surge map for Houston (http://www.khou.com/weather/stormsurgemap.htm ) and a link for their hurricane blog (http://www.beloblog.com/KHOU_Weather_Watch/ ).

[KittyWampus]

1. Shit! Jim Cantore is my bellweather. If he looks grim.... it aint' good.

[Dudley_DUright]

7. Keep him away from Houston

That guy is a hurricane magnet.

[agates]

19. Tornado magnet, too

You know you're in for a rough bout of thunderstorms when Jim Cantore is spotted at the local airport...

[Shakespeare]

77. My parents live in Pensacola, and...

...when talking to my dad, the phrase "Jim Cantore's in town again" has become shorthand for "here comes another hurricane, and it looks like we're fucked again."

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. The country is on the brink of a great depresion

these disasters will only make us teeter over and how many people will die?

Sickening... at multiple levels

But hey there is no global warming okay , but aparently god hates Texas... what will the loons claim this time?

[Skink]

3. This is the second Dust Bowl.

[KittyWampus]

5. very interesting comparison! I'm gonna meditate on that one.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Dust, water heck

what is the difference? How long until check points rise on cali to keep the Okies out

[xray s]

4. but....

the Govenor of Texas, BushCo spokeman Perry, said everything will be fine in Texas because they know how to deal with hurricanes and Louisiana doesn't.

He will regret that statement.

[kestrel91316]

9. So we can take him at his word and send FEMA home?

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Yes yes he will and I might observe, the seaon is far from over

but the planet is not warning up, okay... and water temp has nothing to do with how strong they are getting

[Aviation Pro]

17. Another non-scientist....

...who has no effing clue what a Category 4-5 hurricane can do. Disaster relief is fine, but when you allow developers to build up million buck condos and McMansions on the beach there is no protection.

The shmucks really do run this country now.

[Blue_In_AK]

28. I agree...

I thought he was being pretty damn cocky saying that -- and, believe me, there are a lot of poor black people in Houston, too, unless things have changed a lot since I lived there in the '60s -- and I doubt they have. I hope he's got lots of buses lined up.

[Dulcinea]

81. He really said that?

What a putz.

[CoffeeCat]

6. Yeah, really---the Christian lunatics claimed that...

...God struck New Orleans because the town was full of sin and evil.

Gee, I wonder if these same zealots will proclaim that God hates Texans too?

Nimrods!

By the way, I'm a Christian. I'm not knocking Christians. I'm lambasting these religious fools who use God to justify the inane, evil political garbage in which they constantly stew.

[faithnotgreed]

11. well said two sparkles

[FormerRepublican]

13. Don't worry...

The whack jobs will say God is following the evacuees to Texas. Never underestimate the creativity of a depraved mind. If God exists, and he's anything like the God these whack jobs believe in, we're ALL in a world of hurt, including the whacks themselves.

[theHandpuppet]

33. Well, following that line of twisted, whack job logic...

... which is sure to come from some of those crazies, should we then assume that God the ominpotent has really lousy aim, since he has to take a second swing at the plate? Let's see... so far he's smacked the poor, the elderly and the children. How many swings does he get before he actually hits what he's aiming for, whatever that is?

[tnlefty]

54. Uh oh, since we have approx. 1K evacuees currently and are

expecting to receive 3K from TX in my community soon I guess there will be a hurricane in SE TN soon. I'd better get busy getting prepared!;-)

[SeattleGirl]

15. People like that are NOT real Christians!

I don't think any of them have ever read a word of the New Testament. They get their jollies on by jerking off over the Old Testament.

[thebigidea]

29. funny thing is, they probably say the same about you

[Zynx]

31. However, since they don't follow Christ's teachings it is easier to claim

that they are not Christians, but rather are more closely aligned to old line Orthodox Jews since they seem to only pay attention to the OT.

[thebigidea]

36. every competing religious group always claims they are the only true group

cue thousands of years of bloody conflict. repeat, rinse, fadeout.

[buzzard]

55. Which is why I finally became an agnostic I don't believe in a personal

God only in something that is bigger than us all, I still don't know what it is.

[Toots]

56. Are you being deliberately obtuse?

Nobody was comparing religions. They were saying these Christians act anything but Christian. You wish to defend them so tell us in what manner do they act according to the words of Christ?

[thebigidea]

57. just pointing out that "these christians" think the same about...

... "those christians."

which group is right? The hell if I know - i'm no judge of true christianity, or true anything for that matter.

You'll never get anywhere arguing who is more christian. So i'll bow out here, because all factions look equally goofy to me.

[ChickMagic]

39. But...

didn't God send a rainbow as a promise to never destroy mankind with water again?

[kestrel91316]

8. Great! Time to provoke a war against Iran to stimulate the economy

and provide jobs for all the victims.:sarcasm:

[Bluebear]

12. And imagine the oil refineries in THIS path.

disclaimer- please, no one reply "What about the people????????" I know.

But if this thing wipes out the refineries of the gulf coast area of Texas, hello $7.00 gas and heating oil. Good thing we have a big national surplus for emergencies like this.

[nonconformist]

10. Holy shit. Here we go again

:(

I tend to believe Cantore, but I hope he's wrong this time.

[GreenPartyVoter]

18. Here'e a weather site to keep an eye on

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[KoKo]

20. 600,000 Homes GONE? I don't know Huston...is that much built on

the water? I didn't think of Huston as having a nice beachfront...

That's terrible. He's thinking it will be like some of the Coast Homes in Louisiana then... Cantore looking grim, is indeed a bad sign...

[AspenRose]

24. Houston is inland but nearly at or slightly below sea level in some places

It is "the Bayou city." Lots of bayous in Houston. Plus the ship channel....

[Bridget Burke]

42. He's probably talking about "the Houston area"

That would include Galveston & low-lying land around Galveston Bay.

Storm surge can drive water some distance inland by way of the bayous--which will affect much of Houston "proper". (Although we're not a very "proper" city--too diverse, too Democratic.)

[Zynx]

69. The entire area south of the city is a coastal flood plain

[LuCifer]

21. Lovely!

We’re all fucked. It helps to remember that.
- George Carlin http://www.GeorgeCarlin.com

Ok, uh, time to start stockpile WHAT NOW? Food?! Water?! GUNS N AMMO!!!!!!!!!!

Lu

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. I'm clear on the other side of the country

and will be checking on stores AGAIN... and yes that includes the ammo, need to ask hubby to teach me to clean them damn guns...

[in_cog_ni_to]

22. Oh man. This is not good.

:(

[Deja Q]

74. George Bush did it.

He wants to destroy the economy and country you know. :crazy:

(we'll be seeing lots of those types of posts next...)

(wait, we already had done since Katrina. :eyes:)

[Garbo 2004]

25. Just heard on CNN, Rita upgraded to Cat 3. n/t

[highplainsdem]

30. Now up to Category 4, will almost certainly go to Category 5,

and then alternate between 4 and 5 as the eyewall collapses and is replaced in the usual cycle. The meteorologist on CNN compared it to what they call "supertyphoons" in the Pacific, where the storms last longer because they're over water longer. He looked as grim as Cantore did last night.

[Renew Deal]

26. The north is going to get very populated.

What are we going to do with 2 million displaced people between NO and TX? Hopefully it's not worst case.

[Zynx]

32. If this keeps up, we will see the growth of the south slow dramatically.

People just won't tolerate the idea that their home and all the own can be wiped out like that every year and will move elsewhere. If one more big hurricane hits South Florida after all of this, that will be the end of the housing boom down there just like when the 1926 or 1927 hurricane(I don't remember which year) destroyed the Miami area. The real estate market then didn't recover after a period of extreme expansion for more than a quarter of a century.

[Bridget Burke]

44. No problemo.

Runaway development has increased the flood risk for the Houston area.

And Galveston has far too many big homes & condos on the West Beach--far from the Seawall's protection.

[Zynx]

46. Yeah, I've actually seen them.

If Rita is a big ol' Cat 5 they will be in serious trouble.

[texanwitch]

27. I want to warn anyone traveling when the Rita hits and the rain starts

that large sections of I-10, 45, and 59 flooded in Houston 4 years ago and that was just a tropical storm.

A large section of I-10 flooded near my house, and the water can come up very fast. Take care if you will be traveling Friday when Rita might hits.

[TexasLady]

34. In the early seventies there was a Hurricane or a TS

I lived in Alvin, and I remember that the morning after the storm hit, all of us kids got our air matresses out and took them out to the cul de sac and floated around the big ' pool' it had become. I remember seeing the lines where the waters came up on the houses for a long time after, while riding the school bus.Our house was up a few feet and didnt get flooded, luckily.

It was a mess. We need the rain here in central TX, but Im worried about the tornadoes.


Oh Hell, weatherman just said to expect no electric in parts of central TX, up to eighty MPH winds, and tornadoes. Im going to the store TODAY.
crap.

[Bridget Burke]

53. Here's a link with some pictures of the Big Flood.

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=&imgrefurl=http://discordia1.tripod.com/discordia/id9.html&h=592&w=896&sz=283&tbnid=oe9Tt5SIEX8J:&tbnh=95&tbnw=145&hl=en&start=11&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhouston%2Bflood%2Bi-10%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DN

You can see the flooded out trucks, but all the flooded out cars & SUV's appeared after the water went down. The waters rose slowly enough that people escaped--although their cars weren't worth much, afterwards.

This happened not far from my house, but I was OK. I'm still not in the projected flood area for a strong storm...

[Boomer]

35. My best friend lives in Houston

But she's just not taking this hurricane seriously.

I emailed her a warning this weekend, urging her to keep a close eye on Rita's progress and to begin emergency preparations if she wasn't going to evacuate. My friend replied that she'd "try" to do some shopping on Wednesday evening. Well, by Tuesday the stores in her area were stripped of water and battery supplies, and she mentioned uneasily that this wasn't good.

Then some asshole friend of hers sent out a cheery email about "current predictions" that described Rita like a quick summer storm -- rain on Saturday and bright and dry by Sunday. Which made her even less inclined to listen to my rants about stockpiling a week's worth of water, canned goods, candles, yada yada yada.

What gets me is that this is a bright woman, a college professor, who simply doesn't want to deal with inconvenient reality. Maybe she'll dodge the bullet this time, but if so, I suspect she'll be even more complacent the next time around. And there WILL be a next time.

[highplainsdem]

37. Ask her to check out KHOU.com, and tell her there are already reports

of stations in the area running out of gas (don't know if there are any reports on this from KHOU yet -- I heard this on either CNN or the Weather Channel earlier this morning, re the evacuation from Galveston, but I can't recall whether it referred to Galveston specifically or the Houston area in general).

[Boomer]

49. Thanks

I've emailed my friend an update from the KHOU website. She's got a full tank in her car, but I doubt she's buying plywood and boarding up anything since neither she nor her husband are "handy" about home repair. (In fact, I'd be suprised if they even had tools, much less knew how to use them.)

I'm pretty hopeless when it comes to pratical matters myself, but I was lucky enough to marry my polar opposite who can wield a hammer and keep calm during an emergency.

[highplainsdem]

84. You're welcome! Have you heard from her since this morning?

I hope she's paying attention to all the news reports.

[Boomer]

86. She's hunkering down

She and her husband have stockpiled water and food (in quantities I consider to be inadequate) and are going to start working on protecting the house on Thursday. Just learned tonight that her house is surrounded by tall pine trees. Ouch.

[highplainsdem]

87. I hope they'll be safe. Here's a link to another article they should see:

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/3046592

That article is from last February, but it's about the massive devastation a storm like Rita coould cause in Houston.

[txindy]

50. Tell her it's time to make a weekend trip to Austin or Dallas

If she can get back into Houston after Rita leaves, then fine. If not, then she shouldn't have been in Houston when it hit, anyway, so, also fine. If she still resists, send her here: http://www.noaa.gov/galveston1900/

Then remind her just how close she is to Galveston.

Good luck! :hug:

[Boomer]

52. I made that suggestion on Monday

And she just laughed. She's got classes to teach, too many pets to pack up, her neighborhood has never flooded. I've given up expecting her to leave town; for now I'd just be relieved if she'd buy some friggin' water and batteries. Sigh.

[King Coal]

38. I heard it was 600,001 houses

[HereSince1628]

40. The computer tracks at 8 AM eastern were significantly west of Houston

Although computer tracks can't really be trusted.

[lastliberalintexas]

43. It simply depends on how far west

The east side of a hurricane is the worst side to be on, so if she makes landfall only 10-50 miles or so west of Houston, the area still gets hit very hard. OTOH, if she hits 100-150 west, then Houston and Glaveston will be mostly spared and get only light winds and rain.

[Bridget Burke]

47. Yes, but that landfall would still cause storm surge.

Downtown Houston would have some damage. The Norther suburbs, less.

But storm surge could still cause problems for Galveston.

[lastliberalintexas]

51. True

I don't think any of the scenarios are good for Houston and Galveston. But if she does hit that far west of y'all, SE Texas will thankfully likely be spared.

Not that I'm wishing landfall on you guys- I wish she'd just disappear!

[GOPAgainstGW]

41. 600,000 is BS. We're 55 Miles from the coast line. Have to be slow Cat 5

[Lorien]

59. I was over 100 miles from where Charley made landfall

and our area still saw quite a bit of damage (not 600,000 homes destoyed, but a fair number-mostly from falling trees). It depends on how well organized the storm is-but 55 miles IS NOT far enough away to feel "safe".

[GOPAgainstGW]

68. Southern Florida and Houston are totally different. Cannot compare the two

[Lorien]

79. I don't live in Southern Florida

I live in Central Florida. How, pray tell, are the areas so "different"?

[pitohui]

60. agreed it's sensationalism

they're playing a game of my catastrophe is bigger than yr catastrophe

i are skeptical of a worst case scenario for this storm

i hope i am right!

stay safe, ya'll

as far as the evacuees, they have been removed to arkansas

[demo dutch]

66. Think again, Hugo hit Charleston & entire state hard, incl Charlotte 109mi

landward. Sumter SC (90 miles from coast) saw winds of 109 mi p/hr
Frances which came ashore near Port St Lucie, FL, last year washed out part of the Blue Ridge Parkway in NC. Hurricane Andrew came ashore in Homestead, the Southern part of Miami-Dade county, FL, as a Cat 5 crossed the entire state (approx 150 mi) and was still a Cat 3 when it entered the Gulf.

[demo dutch]

67. Think again, Hugo hit Charleston & entire state hard, incl Charlotte 109mi

landward. Sumter SC (90 miles from coast) saw winds of 109 mi p/hr
Frances which came ashore near Port St Lucie, FL, last year washed out part of the Blue Ridge Parkway in NC. Hurricane Andrew came ashore in Homestead, the Southern part of Miami-Dade county, FL, as a Cat 5 crossed the entire state (approx 150 mi) and was still a Cat 3 when it entered the Gulf.

[Zynx]

70. I think he means Houston area - ship channel, Clear Lake, etc.

[highplainsdem]

75. If he was talking about the Houston area, not just Houston itself --

though the female anchor's question was specifically about Houston; she didn't say "Houston area" -- then including Galveston, which would be devastated by a Cat 4, would mean tens of thousands of homes there might be gone. I don't know how many homes in Houston itself are in low-lying areas, but the worst-case-scenario story at KHOU.com that I posted a link for in another reply here stressed the probability of roof damage across the city. Add rain damage to that, and you could have a lot of homes that would be too damaged to simply repair even if they aren't in areas hit by the storm surge.

[cynatnite]

45. I saw a graphic on TV that put Galveston under water n/t

[highplainsdem]

48. KHOU.com worst-case scenario story - link:

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou050920_gj_upclosecat5.79456dce.html

[highplainsdem]

58. Houston mayor's press conference this morning - link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4837006


The most important thing there is the admission that they won't have enough government vehicles to evacuate all the people who don't have their own transportation, so they're asking people who need help to reach out to everyone they know, and people who are able to evacuate in their own vehicles to check with anyone they know who might need help, and offer them a ride out of Houston.

[pitohui]

61. yeah that'll work.

like we didn't do that in louisiana as well

ppl w. cars get out their own family & friends

the ppl left behind in new orleans were the poorest of the poor, you don't even given rides to strangers that desperate on a bright sunny day, much less when you have all of your valuable papers, pets, kids, wives, moms w. you

[highplainsdem]

71. True, unfortunately.

In LA they asked the churches to get involved in seeing that people got help evacuating. I don't recall hearing anything about that sort of thing in this morning's press conference, so I hope the Houston churches are doing it on their own. But it's still not a good substitute for government planning and assistance.

[warrens]

62. God is punishing the south for supporting the giggling murderer

Pass it on.

[txindy]

72. Is that a fact?

Then God must be either near-sighted or just plain stupid.

http://www.princeton.edu.nyud.net:8090/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/PurpleAmericaPosterAll50_small.gif

According to Snopes http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/civilwar.asp :

According to exit polls and analysis of county-by-county election returns, the sharpest geographic distinction between the two candidates did not primarily correspond to region but to size of community: Senator John Kerry had a substantial 60%-39% edge in large cities (representing roughly 13% of the total U.S. population), while the reverse was true in rural areas (representing roughly 16% of the total U.S. population), where President Bush garnered a 59%-40% majority. What we saw in the 2004 election was more of an urban vs. rural division, regardless of state.

[Lexingtonian]

78. cultural catch-22

If you look at the Deep South historically, its religiousness and its devastation by hurricanes are highly coupled phenomena. There is a characteristic archaeological/cultural phenomenon in Native artifacts in the region termed the 'Southern cult'; it consists of religious artifacts that have whirlwindish motifs and designs. There is a short period in the 1400s in which masses of the stuff were produced- maybe a particularly devastating hurricane season or two.

If you look at the eastern Mexican Quetzalcoatl cult, it's clearly a reaction to hurricanes. The 'feathered serpent' name is easy to understand- it's the (unbelievably awesome) sight of the cloud whirlings inside from inside a perfect hurricane eye.

[Lorien]

80. Unlike Pat Roberson or anyone else who thinks that everything is divinely

planned, I prefer plain old science as an explanation for hurricanes and their paths. Absurd superstitions don't serve any of us well.

[Shine]

63. Oh great, here we go again.

Isn't it true the hurricane season isn't even half over yet?

[lse7581011]

64. Not Until November n/t

[StellaBlue]

65. But our Texan god promised that he wouldn't destroy us with a flood again!

[Deja Q]

73. All pessimists should be shot in front of a warmly applauding audience.

It's okay to have fear.

But to catastrophize is wrong.

My counselor has told me so on countless occasions.

And unless these tv twits are like Woody Allen and can turn negative mindsets into comedy, they should simply superglue their lips together before they think of sayin' it. :D

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. And disaster and war planning tells you

to worst case everything and hope for the best, why FEMA is a disaster all on its own, they don't worst case shit...

[spinbaby]

82. It's a category 5 now

From Steve Gregory's blog

SEP 21 2005 - 1:20PM CDT

The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.

Center Pressure is down to 920mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 153KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[highplainsdem]

85. Now 898 mb or below, 3rd most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/212351.shtml

And still on a track where Houston/Galveston will be in the northeast quadrant, the worst side of the storm, as it makes landfall.

[highplainsdem]

83. KHOU has a link for a live webcast

on their home page, http://www.khou.com/ .

I haven't been able to get it to work, but thought I'd post it for others.