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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:36 AM
Original message
Bird flu outbreak an epidemic: Jakarta
"Indonesia has described an outbreak of bird flu in its teeming capital as an epidemic after a five-year-old girl suspected of having the virus died.

Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said sporadic human cases of bird flu had surfaced in recent months in and around parts of Jakarta, home to 12 million people.

"This can be described as an epidemic. These (cases) will happen again as long as we cannot determine the source," Supari told reporters, but she insisted it would be wrong to label it a "frightening epidemic".

Four Indonesians are already confirmed to have died in recent months from the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has killed a total of 64 people in four Asian countries since late 2003 and has spread to Russia and Europe."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Bird-flu-outbreak-an-epidemic-Jakarta/2005/09/21/1126982107488.html

Just what we need - more bad news.
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ladylibertee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:38 AM
Response to Original message
1. Yeah, This totally freaks me out.On the News, it said that some
people got it from other PEOPLE, Not the chicken.EWWWWWWW!!!!
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. 4 deaths and 'suspected'
does not an epidemic make.

Neither is 64 over 2 years.
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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:47 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. It's going human to human.
The way a pandemic develops, clusters are just a short step away from pandemic. Since it's flu, which is notoriously spreadable, WHO has said it may jump directly from infection from birds, to pandemic when it starts spreading human to human. They estimate it going around the world within a week.

The problem with what's going on in Indonesia is that they can't find the source, other than the unpalatable human to human. Not much to take it from there to mass infection. We're heading into flu season when flu viruses do all their happy adapting.

I don't think they're far off in describing it as an epidemic, especially since one of the sources of infection is a zoo with 3 symptomatic zoo workers who didn't work directly with infected birds, 2 of these workers were food vendors, and the zoo had 50,000 visitors last weekend before they shut it down for bird flu. What they're probably anticipating is that some percentage of that 50,000 is now infected. I would suspect more cases in the next few days.
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. The girl was in contact with chickens or birds
so were the rest of them.

WHO is looking for more money...they do this every year.

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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:10 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. You haven't been reading the news.
It's not WHO who is saying they can't trace it back to a bird source. It's the health authorities in Indonesia. Latest news is that health authorities from all over the world are heading to Indonesia and they're hunting for extra doses of Tamiflu. Tamiflu can only be used within hours of symptom development. Only reason to dig up extra doses is in an effort to contain an outbreak. Problem is, they can't dig up enough doses to be effective.

Here are some more news stories to take a look at to get up to speed:

"Foreign teams to help Jakarta tackle bird flu
By Shawn Donnan in Jakarta
Published: September 21 2005 03:00 | Last updated: September 21 2005 03:00

International donors have begun talks with Indonesia on how to tackle a growing outbreak of bird flu amid concerns Jakarta is struggling to deal with the problem as the number of human cases mounts.
A US government fact-finding team from the Centers for Disease Control and Protection and other agencies arrived in Jakarta on Sunday to assess what Washington can do to help, said a US embassy spokesman.

Australian officials are also talking to the World Health Organisation and Jakarta over possible assistance, which could include helping fund a cull of birds or backing efforts to stockpile anti-viral drugs, officials said.

Indonesia has officially confirmed four human deaths since July from bird flu, all of them in Jakarta, where the city zoo has been shut down because of an outbreak among its birds."

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5a3b2606-2a3d-11da-b890-00000e2511c8.html

"The government imposed "extraordinary" measures yesterday to keep a bird flu outbreak that has killed four people in Indonesia from spreading, including the forced hospitalization of people who exhibit symptoms of the disease.

In addition to the fatalities, six patients suspected of having the H5N1 strain of bird flu have been admitted to Jakarta's infectious diseases hospital, officials said, two of them zoo employees. Blood samples from the patients have been sent to Hong Kong for testing.

Health Minister Siti Fadila said the government was "very concerned" about the spread of bird flu and had assigned 44 state-owned hospitals to treat avian influenza patients, who will receive free medication.

Those with symptoms of the disease could be admitted by force, she said, adding that the "extraordinary" status would last 21 days but could be renewed if necessary."

http://www.etaiwannews.com/World/2005/09/21/1127270637.htm

Why forcibly hospitalize people unless it's spreading human to human?

"Sep 20, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Three workers from Jakarta's Ragunan Zoo have been hospitalized with suspected H5N1 avian influenza, increasing the number of suspected human cases in Indonesia to as many as seven, according to news services.

The zoo was closed yesterday after 19 captive birds tested positive for the H5N1 virus. The ailing zoo workers include a 28-year-old guide and a 39-year-old vendor, the Associated Press (AP) reported in a statement attributed to I Nyoman Kandun, Indonesia's director general of communicable disease control. A Reuters report today said a third person from the zoo, also a food worker, was hospitalized late last night.

The latest cases apparently bring the number of suspected case-patients in Indonesia to seven. But Reuters quoted Indonesian Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari as saying only six people have been hospitalized.

On Sep 16, officials confirmed that the death of a 37-year-old woman from Jakarta a few days earlier was due to H5N1 avian flu. As of yesterday, news services were reporting that four children had been hospitalized with suspected cases. They included two girls, aged 3 and 6; a 7-year-old; and a 9-year-old boy who is related to the 37-year-old victim."

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/sep2005avflu.html

Infected food vendors in a high traffic public zoo is a great vector for spreading bird flu.

And my favorite:

"The most important speech President Bush gave last week was not the prime-time address from Jackson Square in New Orleans. The world will little note nor long remember what he said there. It was stagey and prosaic, and his words were artificially elevated in importance by the passing political moment, not the substance of his remarks.

The most important speech Bush gave last week was delivered at the United Nations. It contained an ominous reference, which very few people seem to have noticed. The president signalled his concern over a new threat currently building in southeast Asia — and this time the threat has nothing to do with terrorism.

In the poultry farms of Vietnam and Thailand, in the slums of Indonesia, along the migratory routes of wild fowl in China, a new strain of bird flu is mutating and spreading. It's just a matter of time, scientists say, before the strain — H5N1, the most virulent form of influenza ever identified — will fully lodge itself within the human population. When that happens, start looking for the Four Horsemen of the Apocalyse — in particular, the one named Pestilence who's riding a pale horse.

This is not your ordinary, off-the-shelf, garden variety flu strain. It's a superbug. Currently, the virus is transmitted to humans only through direct contact with birds. Up until now, there's been very little to worry about unless you work with chickens in Thailand, or you eat Vietnamese delicacies such as uncoagulated duck blood soup. But scientists tell us that the virus is mutating, and it will soon become a human-to-human contagion that's spread the old-fashioned way — by nose, hand and mouth."

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/3362777

Bush has once again dropped the ball. I can't even be surprised at the level of his incompetence anymore.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:08 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. there has been no viral shift to allow human to human transmission
currently it is people who are in close contact with the birds

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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:13 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. That's my point.
Edited on Wed Sep-21-05 02:17 AM by FormerRepublican
This may no longer be true. They haven't sequenced the Indonesian version (as far as I'm aware) and they can't trace it back to it's source. They suspect human to human because of the way it's spreading. Not efficiently, but human to human nonetheless.

(Edit of my brain dead spelling.)
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. There is no human to human transmission as yet
It is scattered outbreaks...sporadic as Indonesia says...and no proof whatever, so far, of human to human transmission.

I know many people on here are eagerly awaiting the end of the world, but this isn't it.
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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. I guess time will tell.
And no, I'm not eagerly awaiting the end of the world. I do think people need to be prepared for what might happen if it goes pandemic, just as they should prepare if they're in the path of Rita.

Sticking heads in the sand to avoid it doesn't help anyone (or keep anyone alive).

(And by the way, there IS proof of human to human transmission. An article was published in the New England Journal of Medicine recently. A case in Vietnam was conclusively proven - almost a year after the fact, I might add. If you're really interested, I'll spend some time looking up the link. I suspect by the time human to human is proven in Indonesia, the pandemic will be in full bloom.)
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. For people who like scaring themselves to death
Edited on Wed Sep-21-05 02:36 AM by Maple
Here ya go...

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/

I personally have no interest in the 'Annual Armageddon Cry Wolf 1918 we're all gonna die' scenario that WHO does.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:06 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. absolutely correct
I wonder how many people realize that.
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:40 AM
Response to Original message
3. Bush will take action once a vaccine is found. nt
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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 01:49 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Yeah, he'll get his injection then run down into the bunker until it's...
all over. I really DON'T trust that man!
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KitchenWitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:37 AM
Response to Original message
14. A pandemic in the making I am afraid
:cry:
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Here ya go
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FormerRepublican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 05:35 AM
Response to Original message
16. Here's an update: 2 girls with bird flu symptoms die in Indonesia
"Two young girls who showed bird flu symptoms have died at Jakarta hospitals, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said Wednesday.

The two are among 10 cases of suspected bird flu in humans that have surfaced in Indonesia since Friday. As many as four people died here earlier this year of the disease.

Riska Adianti, aged 5, died at 7 a.m. Wednesday at the Sulianti Saroso Infectious Disease Hospital, which is designated to receive bird flu cases, Supari told reporters.

Another girl under 5 years of age, identified as Jessica, died Tuesday at Cikini Hospital in central Jakarta after showing bird flu symptoms, the minister later told Kyodo News."

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050921/kyodo/d8coiem02.html

Looks like two new patients admitted to the hospital, as well.
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