Those in Houston still wondering if you should leave, please read

[A-Possum]

Maybe you missed this article in the Houston Chronicle back in February which talks about computer models run on the effects of a cat 4-5 storm on the city:

Houston's perfect storm would feed on late summer's warm waters as it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the coast near Freeport. A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded inland bayous and streams for a day or more.

Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die. Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris County, its most dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland, would lash the Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas Medical Center and downtown. Many older buildings could not withstand such winds.

Anything not tied down, from trees to mobile homes to light poles, would become missiles, surreally tumbling and flying through the air, flattening small houses, shattering skyscraper windows and puncturing roofs.

"Unfortunately, we're looking at massive devastation," said Roy Dodson, president of the engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which Harris County asked to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for a major hurricane hitting the area.

Current projections today by the NHC show landfall near Freeport, "the perfect storm." This may change but the time you know it will be too late. Please take advantage of any evacuation procedure offered and leave, even if you must go to a shelter. This storm will cause severe damage hundreds of miles from the center. Heavy rains and flooding are predicted as it moves over Texas and stalls. You do not want to be sitting on flooded roads if you evacuate too late. Please go ASAP.

[jbnow]

1. Just heard from someone in Houston

that there is no gas left, no fresh water, no supplies.
They have to hunker down unless emergency supplies get in.

Haven't heard it on the news, it should be. How are people suppose to leave?

[Blue_In_AK]

9. This is very true...

My husband talked to his brother in Houston today, and he said the same. Not even any batteries. Luckily, they have a full tank of gas and are heading over to the hill country.

[Lisa0825]

21. Depends on the area.

I just got to west houston after evacuating from Texas City. I saw several gas stations doing brisk business, and people walking out of grocery stores with full bags. I also passed several that were closed. So, I think it just all depends on where you are.

[progressivebydesign]

30. I think my brother lives in the Hill Country... Marble Falls?

I think they'll still get some of that storm, but being in the hills, seems like a safer place. I hope your brother-in-law, and my brother, will be okay.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

43. No way! Really?

That's my neck of the woods. :)

[Lone_Star_Dem]

42. Do they need a place to stay?

I'm in the Hill Country and there's still some room at the Lone_Star_Dem inn. No mints on the pillows (actually, at this point you have to bring your own pillow) and only floor space left, but I'll squeeze them in.

PM me if they need shelter.

[GreenPartyVoter]

10. Someone should go in to get them

[proud2BlibKansan]

29. Send school buses!

[Mairead]

49. "How are people supposed to leave?"

I bet a helluva lot of cars, pickups, and SUVs left town with empty seats.

[David Zephyr]

2. I have family near Freeport. Do you have a link to the models?

I have family all over the Houston area from Galveston Bay to Sugarland to Tomball.

Is Sugarland a safe place to ride out the storm?

[jbond56]

3. sugarland

is probably going to be ok. tomball is probably fine to. It is possible they will be without power for awhile.

[David Zephyr]

7. Thanks.

All of my relatives in Galveston/Clear Lake have all left except for two who are going to try to leave tonight although I just spoke by cell to to family members who have spent 5 hours driving from Clear Lake past the Astrodome to Sugarland and are still not there yet!

[A-Possum]

11. Good

The traffic is horrendous but that's the best reason to go now. There is still time. All day Thursday and some of Friday. They will be ok, just need to keep plugging ahead. I'm hoping that the officials will copy NOLA and open the southbound lanes to northbound traffic. Last I saw pics on the news, they hadn't done that but maybe they will soon.

[txindy]

25. I can easily believe that. Houston traffic is hideous on a normal day.

With so many people evacuating, the highways and side roads must be parking lots.

[WiseButAngrySara]

35. What about the Memorial area? and Briagrove Park? Bellaire?

Inner Loop?

[A-Possum]

4. Check the link

There are resource links on the right hand side, including some risk maps. I don't have a link to the study itself, only what's there.

[kestrel91316]

5. Head W or SW; go to San Antonio or even Laredo. Get the HELL

out of Houston and E Texas!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[doublethink]

20. Go to this link if they need a place to stay .....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4845415 Prayers.

[ninkasi]

40. I"m not so sure about Sugarland...

Check out the KHOU Channel 11 weather site...it has lots of info. Hope all of your family stays safe. I'm just north of Spring myself.

http://www.khou.com/

[texpatriot2004]

6. Thanks for this from West Houston n/t

[Carolab]

13. texpatriot--please be safe! n/t

[texpatriot2004]

16. Thanks Carolab. It's wierd. There is a sense of urgency but

without knowing what to expect exactly. We are not in an area that floods but we are expecting winds in excess of 100 miles per hour. As of now we are not evacuating. I have other family here too. It is such a wierd feeling. I am not sure what to do really. I wish I knew how the communities North of Biloxi faired; you know,like 30 to 50 miles North. That would be a reasonable comparison to where we are. Anyway, thanks for the well wishes I appreciate that. Good luck and God speed to everone else in Rita's path.

[HeeBGBz]

23. Hattiesburg had significant wind damage

No electricity. Trees down all over. I saw storm damage almost all the way to Jackson. Hattiesburg was 60 miles from the coast.

How sturdy is your house?

[texpatriot2004]

24. Our house was built in 1978 it's a ranch style type. The only thing

is that we have lots of windows and skylights. Hattiesburg is 60 miles from the coast. How far to Jackson? Our area doesn't flood. Did yours?

[HeeBGBz]

44. Board em up if you can

Jackson is probably about 160 miles or so from the coast.

I lived on a non-flooding area of Gulfport. We got a lot of wind damage in that area. Trees everywhere down.

Now I'm in southern Missouri and expect to get Rita's backside rain.

[progressivebydesign]

32. Are people staying because they are confused about Katrina vs. Rita?

So many people have been watching the flooding of Katrina, and perhaps not realizing that the flooding was a particular problem because of N.O. water system. Katrina had veered off a bit before hitting N.O., so while the winds were brutal, it was the flooding from failed levies or floodwalls that was more devastating.

I fear that people in Houston may not be getting a clear message of the real danger of Rita. Yes, there will be flooding and it will be a problem especially in low-lying areas, but the winds do not care if you are in a higher area, they will be all over the area.

Please.. to any DUer or DUer family member that is reading this tonight, be sure you are not misunderstanding the danger of this hurricane. Flooding is not the only issue. Moving to higher ground, yet still near Rita's landfall, may not be enough. Do not wait until the last minute to leave town. If your area has a voluntary evacuation, heed it.

[RagingInMiami]

34. The higher you are in a hurricane

The stronger the wind gusts

[HeeBGBz]

45. Yeah, they need to relate more to MS Gulf Coast damage

Storm surge and obliterating winds. Waveland, Bay St Lewis took the eye and very little remained.

[WiseButAngrySara]

37. texpatriot, where in W. Hous. do you live? My parents do, and are out of

the state. I'm worried about friends...all over the city. Clearlake, Sugarland, Memorial, Bellaire, Braeswood/Medical Center/Rice Area! I'm so worried!

[rainbow4321]

8. This whole thing is heartbreaking

From the Chronicle's sciguy blog


http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/


As a Houston resident and property owner, I am truly mortified right now. If you are under a mandatory evacuation order, you should heed it.

The storm has gone from potentially bad on Monday to terribly bad today. Tomorrow will have to bring better news, won't it?

One can only think the a city that opened its arms so wide to the victims of the truly catastrophic Katrina deserves a better fate. We shall see ...

[Ilsa]

12. I wonder where we should go.

I'm further south, but 30 miles inland from the coast. It's getting difficult to find places to stay that aren't in the path.

[A-Possum]

14. I understand, but even if you have to sleep in car

If it were me (and I did evacuate from Corpus Christi back in 1980 for Hurricane Allen, and that taught me to expect exactly what is happening in Houston now) I would go straight west, then turn north toward Lubbock and Midland. Put stuff in the car in case you have to sleep there. Food, water, toilet paper. Check for shelters in San Antonio if you can't get gas enough to go further west. This hurricane is predicted to stall over central and north Texas (San Antonio/Dallas/Austin corridor) with heavy rain and flooding there, so farther west is safer. This also helps if landfall is farther south.

I'm sorry, I hate to even be typing this. :( But this is very serious.

[doublethink]

18. Go to this link ......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4845415

[A-Possum]

15. kick

for the seriousness of the situation.

[Jennos20]

17. People should come to Austin

I'm sure there are hotels here, and the convention center has become a shelter for Katrina and Rita victims.

[A-Possum]

22. Thank you for for shelter info

If anyone knows of other shelter info for cities in Texas, please post here. It seems that many people are wondering where they can go.

There is tomorrow and part of Friday to move out. Please don't delay.

[Nothing Without Hope]

26. Welcome to DU, Jennos20!

Good to have you with us, even in these frightening times. Although I live in New England, I'm a proud Texas native and my brother lives in Austin - love that city and San Antonio.

I hope everyone is out of Galveston. The storm surge alone is likely to flood everything as the Great Galveston Hurricane did so long ago.

[GoodSpud]

33. Hi Jennos20

There are shelters available in Austin for about 15,000 people but I would absolutely NOT come to Austin if you want to get a hotel room.

Austin City Limits music festival is this weekend so pretty much all the hotels rooms are booked.

Local news story on this at this link:
http://www.news8austin.com/content/your_news/default.asp?ArID=145952

Definitely get off the coast but DON'T expect to get a room in Austin just by walking into the hotel.

TDP

[Dover]

36. Austin doesn't have any more hotel/motel rooms BUT they are very

organized with their shelters, using smaller high school gyms (MANY) which allows for smaller groups. MUCH better. The big auditorium is not being used this time I've heard.

Austin is a great place to be if you have to rely on the good graces of others. People are terrific. In fact so great that many who took refuge in Austin after Katrina fell in love with the town and people and are staying....a lot of musicians!

At any rate, Austin is ready and waiting with open arms to anyone who would like to come. Many are opening their homes as well. Come one, come all!

[SW FL Dem]

19. This from Hurricanetrack.com

This will be short tonight- Rita is as bad as they come. There is no need to re-hash the preparedness stuff right now. At this point it is a matter of survival. To survive- you must leave areas that will flood. If staying, write your social security number with a Sharpie on your arms and torso. This way people can identify you should the worst happen. I am serious, it is that bad of a hurricane. Tomorrow is the last day that you will have to prepare your home and yourself for what is to come. This is beyond anything that most people have ever witnessed and we can only hope that Rita will weaken considerably before landfall. If not, it is possible that entire areas could be swept away forever.

[EFerrari]

27. Please, please be careful

and know all of DU is behind you.

[lostnfound]

28. Houston downtown here - flying out tomorrow morning

if I can make it to the airport. Traffic is a nightmare.

[progressivebydesign]

31. Best of luck to you! I hope you get out okay. n/t

[applegrove]

38. Hurricane winds will hit Friday. The Eye Saturday. Leave town or

call for help from authorities TOMORROW!

[Nothing Without Hope]

39. FORECAST from the Nat'l Weather Service, updated 1 AM Thursday:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
HURRICANE RITA PUBLIC ADVISORY

(snip)

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHT FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Here is the water vapor satellite image animation - it's updated every half hour. DIAL-UP WARNING. (Visible light doesn't work at night, but this does.)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[yowzayowzayowza]

41. Far SW Houston here (Rosenberg)...

104 ft above sea level... not in the 100yr flood or evacuation zones... retrieved camping supplies from the popup... gunna forage fer sum more provisions first lite... US90A headed towardz TX36 is a parking lot... fortunately abode faces north... fillin trash canz and bathtub with water... been thru several typhoons in the far east, including a coupla super-typhoons... we're ready fer several days w/o utilities... printed sign for the door reading "Beware: Smith & Wesson Security System"... wife werkz at hospital and plans to relieve those riding it out there Sunday... felines er bewildered by the proceedings... backing-up puterz... double chking prescriptions... on and on and on... R we havin fun yet?

[lizlib]

46. what do you think about spring tx?

My parents cannot leave. My dad manages a company location in houston and they won't let them close until noon today. They realized they can't get out in time.
Are they going to be okay?

[A-Possum]

47. At this point

I'm not going to give advice, it's not my place, but balancing the chance of being caught on the highway in bumper-to-bumper when the storm winds and rain comes through, and staying home hunkered down is the issue now.

The storm right now (Thurs afternoon) is taking a slightly more northerly track. It may landfall more to the east if it continues, which would put Houston in less damage zone, being on the left side of the eye.

I'm sorry your dad's company is so foolish. :\ This evac has become a giant fiasco for Houston, because it seems the authorities have again underestimated what was going to happen. I heard the TX governor claim that their models showed it would take 33 hours to evacuate the coast.

I'd say anybody with some common sense and a little experience with rush hour in Houston could have told him that was b*shit. Starts to make NOLA's success at evacuating 80% look a lot better. I thought it was amazing at the time, myself.

[EFerrari]

50. What about College Sta. and Brenham? Elderly friends there.

Sharp as anything but I've no idea if they have help to leave.

[Don Claybrook]

51. How about Kingwood? My mom is there

She's in an apartment on the 2nd floor, and I believe the apartments are right on Lake Houston.

Earlier today, she had planned to evacuate, but she heard something in local media about Houston area residents not being able to get on the freeway, but being forced to use the feeder roads instead so that those who started around Galveston would have a clearer shot up 45.

So, Houston locals, what do you know about Kingwood, its elevation, and so on?

Would my mom be better off hunkering down in her 2nd floor apartment, or should she get on roads that are already packed and barely moving?

[yowzayowzayowza]

52. Kingwood info...

Ya might try here: http://www.kingwood.com
Good Tx topo maps here: http://www.tnris.state.tx.us/digital.htm

If she doesn't already have enough fuel to endure ALOT of stop and go traffic, itz prolly better to verify the safety of her current location and/or help her find local shelters.

The only discussion of Lake Houston & the storm surge suggested that the dam should protect 'em. If it were my relative, I'd prolly suggest riding it out. GOOD LUCK.

[yowzayowzayowza]

53. If he doesn't have...

PLENTY of gas, itz prolly too late to be evacuating. There are MASSIVE numbers of dead carz on the road with families sitin on coolers waitin fer some help. The market is obviously incapable of providing sufficient product to support the current level of evacuation, some of which seem ridiculous, imho. The mandatory evacuation of Sugar Land for eg seems to jus be adding to the prob.

Anyway good Tx topo maps here: http://www.tnris.state.tx.us/digital.htm

[Barack_America]

48. TAKE YOUR PETS!!! Provisions available at shelters!!

Don't let this (see below) happen again!!

http://www.projectstarfish.org/photos7.php