NHC Public Advisory #21A (next update at 10:00 p.m. CDT)

[Penndems]

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 222359
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...
465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM
CDT...NOAA BUOY 42001 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RITA REPORTED A
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 83 MPH...134 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112
MPH...180 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


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[blitzen]

1. The good thing is: that part of LA is very sparsely populated...

and Lake Charles is fairly far inshore.

This thing could turn out to be a non-event (relatively speaking).

[GOPAgainstGW]

2. We Don't Need A Separate Thread for Every NHC Advisory on Rita - eom

[Penndems]

3. I do this as a public service, to hopefully save some lives,

and to give folks in the affected area an idea of what they're up against (and have been posting updates here periodically on every hurricane since last summer). I'm well aware that these don't get read by a lot of people, but some actually appreciate them.

I was especially glad when I posted these advisories during Hurricane Katrina, when this Administration started pointing fingers at Dr. Max Mayfield, stating they weren't given enough advance warning, in an effort to discredit him.

[GOPAgainstGW]

4. I already posted this info. Why do we need a zillion dupe threads here?

I already posted this information and this is my third major thread on Hurricane Rita per below. I have 20 years experience tracking hurricanes, and severe weather events, and live in Houston, Texas with a second home in Galveston Texas.

I am asking if we can share all our information in one place instead of having a zillion 2-bit Hurr Rita threads all over this forum. That's all.

HURRICANE RITA: Galveston/Houston "On the Ground" Reports

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4846706&mesg_id=4846706

[Penndems]

5. Understand your reasoning regarding dupe threads, but not

everyone goes to the "General Discussion" format when they log in - it's usually "Late Breaking News" or "The DU Lounge". (There's a great Rita thread posted by Sabra in LBN, if you haven't already seen it.) They may not see your thread (or mine either), but if someone else is posting something regarding the hurricane in another forum, members and lurkers can find something of interest there.

There's no pride of ownership on the discussion boards. If you or I post something and it goes up multiple times, usually the mods consolidate the subjects. There are over 77,000 people posting here, so it's difficult to keep track of what information is being exchanged here. (I'll be happy to post the NHC info on your thread, if you like. Bedtime for me is 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time, so obviously I won't be posting after that.)

BTW, thank you for your meteorlogical work. You're living my dream! :D






(on edit: typo)