MyUncle
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:10 PM
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Isn't the East side of the Hurricane the most dangerous? |
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This storm's track keeps moving Eastward. Most likely it will hit hardest well North/East of Houston. Are the people in the central and western coast of Louisiana moving?
Please someone, get them out of there.
This looks like it could be really bad for them.
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highplainsdem
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:13 PM
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1. Northeast quadrant is the most dangerous. |
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But I'm not sure this storm will make landfall east of Houston. A meteorologist on Fox (which I was watching for the rerun of Donahue's appearance, where he trounced O'Reilly) just said the track is moving west again, and he's predicting it will make landfall at Galveston.
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MyUncle
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:17 PM
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2. The media has been all over what is happening in Houston, |
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just wondering if LA is once again going to not be ready.
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pitohui
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:23 PM
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3. louisiana is way more ready than houston, thank you very much |
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i think it's abt time for the backseat drivers to sit down & shut up
our contraflow plan worked great, we moved a record number of ppl by car
may i point out that the reason texans are sitting in traffic is their authorities fucked up & announced a mandatory evacuation yet they had no contraflow working until this afternoon
some ppl have sat in traffic 12 hours to go less than 60 miles
we don't need to hear any more abt the superiority of yankees or texans
what louisiana & mississippi did to get ppl out was an outstanding achievement
but it has to be shit on because blanco is a democrat...and perry is gop
southwest louisiana is well aware of rita & most of the region is under mandatory or voluntary evac orders
we know perfectly well what is going on
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A-Possum
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
15. That's the Accuweather guy |
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They are making fun of him over on easternuswx.com (eastern weather forum) because Accuweather is trying to sensationalize. Not that Galveston/Houston are out of the woods, because they aren't. Not at all. But take the Accuweather forecast with a grain of salt. Earlier they were calling the NHC forecast "virtually useless" based on an experimental chart the NHC has on their site. They are playing politics, Geraldo-style. They have since gone back and edited the page. Discussion here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4855375 Stick with the NHC.
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typhoontim
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:25 PM
Response to Original message |
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The "strongest" portion of the storm is always the right-front quadrant. So, depending on the direction of motion of the storm, that location will change.
For example, a storm moving straight north will be most intense in the northeast quadrant - right and front of center. A storm moving due west will be strongest in the northwest quadrant, and so on.
Why? It's actually quite simple. Winds around a hurricane move counterclockwise. Take a 100 mph system moving north at 15 mph for example. At landfall, just to the right (east) of center, you'll have the 100 mph winds in the eyewall, added to the forward motion of the system -- 100+15 = 115 mph winds. Plus, that southerly flow will bring the storm surge to that same location.
Now, on the left (west) side of that same system, the 100 mph storm winds will be fighting against the 15 mph forward motion. If you've taken geometry, think two vectors in opposite directions: they cancel each other out. So, there would be surface winds of 100-15= 85mph there. And, it would be an offshore flow, thus no storm surge.
A little long-winded, I know... that's what you get with a resident meteorologist! hahaha.
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marions ghost
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
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thanks for breaking that down, I didn't quite understand it that way before.
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Lisa
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:49 PM
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12. "long-winded" -- hah! Welcome to DU, typhoontim! |
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Evidently you've passed the "can you drop a pun before your 5th post" test!
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soup
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:50 PM
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13. Welcome to DU, typhoontim. |
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:hi:
Not long-winded at all and very well said.
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winga222
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Thu Sep-22-05 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
18. Thanks, that makes it a bit easier to follow |
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:hi: Welcome to DU. You'll love it here.
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newyawker99
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Fri Sep-23-05 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
dweller
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:33 PM
Response to Original message |
5. local news tease just chimed in |
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"Rita has changed directions. Tune in at 11 to see what this means"
so i checked here, your's was the latest post.
anyone know the latest details?
dp
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highplainsdem
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:39 PM
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6. CNN, right now, saying Rita's track is moving west again. |
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Which agrees with what I heard on Fox half an hour ago. Moving back toward Galveston.
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dweller
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:42 PM
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8. thanks, the background graphic |
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Edited on Thu Sep-22-05 08:43 PM by dweller
of the news tease looked like it was a northern projection, which may the the older, not newer direction...
guess i'll check at 11.
dp
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soup
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Thu Sep-22-05 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
17. Local (Houston) stations online with continuous coverage |
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Edited on Thu Sep-22-05 09:09 PM by soup
ABC13 http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/direct Windows Media Player link: http://ktrktv.wm.llnwd.net/ktrktv_live-- and, as with Hurricane Katrina, KHOU is an excellent source for coverage: http://www.khou.com/-- edit to add: KPRC-TV (NBC) http://www.click2houston.com/index.html
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typhoontim
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
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Edited on Thu Sep-22-05 08:42 PM by typhoontim
I'm not sure why they haven't said too much about this yet, but the last three runs of some of the various computer models are showing a disturbing trend.
While the landfall forecast (between Galveston, TX and Cameron, LA) still looks good, many of the models are showing a huge slowdown of the system just after landfall, followed by a VERY slow meander towards the west and west-southwest. This could spell disastrous flooding for the entire region as Rita just sort of sits and spins out in the same general location. We could be talking rainfall amounts of 15-30 inches if this new trend indeed verifies.
Anyone remember Allison back in 2001? 20+ inches of rain out of that system... and that was "only" a tropical storm! This is a full-fledged major hurricane with a large storm surge associated with it.
Not good.
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highplainsdem
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
9. Tim, they have been mentioning that stalling. |
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And what I heard on CNN is that the same ridge that will cause the stalling is pushing Rita west again.
First mention I saw of the likelihood of torrential rainfall was on Jeff Masters' blog on Wunderground.com last night. Think he said it might mean 30 inches of rain as far north as Dallas.
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dweller
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
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:hi: good to see a res. weather geek in the house.
i know Ophelia did some of the same, just sit and spin on NC coast recently, and that was cat1-cat2? lots of water, thankfully no major devastation like Rita could deliver.
dp
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highplainsdem
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:50 PM
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pitohui
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Thu Sep-22-05 08:52 PM
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16. i have heard mention of this sad possibility |
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i was out of the usa during allison so didn't really grok the full awfulness of this tropical storm until recently
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ForrestGump
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Fri Sep-23-05 08:04 AM
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20. The biggest hurricane that I've yet been in slammed my island |
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with its northeast edge, at first, and the winds on its other side (blowing a different direction, also, not that there's much shelter on a relatively low-lying island) were still strong but noticeably weaker. It's all relative, though...those winds on its southwest edge were still pretty fearsome. That storm was a direct hit, right in the middle, and the weirdest thing of all -- and it was preternatural in its sudden calm and the rather odd air pressure sensations and sound quality -- was being right in the eye of that monster for a while.
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